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Expires:200508132115;;219223
FPUS51 KBTV 130710
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-132115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
315 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN 
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 
PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
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FXUS61 KBTV 130654
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHCS ON SUNDAY

.SYNOPSIS...
BIG PICTURE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS SE CONUS WITH
S/W ENERGY HELPING TO DIG TROF ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ATTM.
MEANWHILE...FAST ZONAL FLW WITH EMBEDDED 5H VORTS CONT TO IMPACT OUR
FA AS BEST JET ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED ULVL DIVERGENCE STAYS ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ATTM.

CRNT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRNT ACRS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK
WEST TOWARD MONTREAL ATTM WITH SFC COLD FRNT APPROACHING THE SLV.
TEMPS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH DWPT
IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WEAK AREA OF -RW
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRNT NEAR MSS ATTM WITH MORE SCT -RW ACRS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF VT THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS
CONFINED TO LARGE AREA OF STORMS ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY FROM
NEAR SYR TO ALB TO SOUTHERN VT. THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY MOVING
EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND WL CONT TO CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WINDSOR/RUTLAND COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS OUR FA SLOWLY BREAKS DOW TODAY AS SFC COLD
FRNT AND ASSOCIATED 5H ENERGY MVS THRU. GIVEN SOME GOOD 7H MOISTURE
AND CRNT POSITION OF FRNT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET
ENHANCING ULVL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD 85H-5H Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...WL
MENTION SCHC TO CHC POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS THIS
MORNING. FEEL BEST SFC CONVERGENCE AND 7H OMEGA/MOISTURE WL BE EAST
OF FA BY 15Z THEREFORE WL KEEP FCST DRY AFTER THAT PERIOD. FEEL THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER LLVL MOISTURE...WEAK 5H VORT CROSSING
NORTHERN FA...SFC HEATING...AND LLVL LIFT PROVIDED BY TRRN A FEW
ISOLATED -RW COULD DEVELOP ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS/ GREEN MTNS BTWN
18Z-21Z. HOWEVER...BASED ON VERY LIMITED CAPE AND NO LLVL
INSTABILITY FEEL ONLY SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR CUMULUS GROWTH GIVEN STRONG CAP AND
VERY DRY AIR BTWN 8H-5H. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE U70S MTN ZNS TO M80S CT RIVER VALLEY. TONIGHT...WEAK SFC
RIDGE BUILDS INTO FA...AS SFC FRNT PUSHES INTO SNE AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE PROGS SHOW 70-80% RH ACRS OUR FA FROM
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING BACK INTO THE REGION...THEREFORE WL
MENTION PC SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TO A MINIMAL.

SUNDAY...SFC FRNT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRNT AS SEVERAL 5H
VORTS SLIDE ACRS OUR CWA. THIS LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRNT AND ULVL
DYNAMICS...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MID LVL MOISTURE...WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC OF AFTER/EVENING TRW. SFC BASED INSTABILITY WL BE
MARGINALLY GIVEN CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -1C ACRS OUR
SOUTHERN ZNS.

MONDAY...SFC FRNT ONCE AGAIN DROPS INTO SNE AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS SFC HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO OUR FA.
BASED ON PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
LEFTOVER MOISTURE BEHIND SFC FRNT WL MENTION PC SKIES WITH TEMPS IN
THE M70S TO L80S. WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
WEAK CD FNT MVG THRU FA ATTM AND SHLD PUSH THRU BY 12-14Z. CIG/VSBY
IMPRVG WITH TIME ERLY THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR AND DECENT GRADIENT
MIX THINGS OUT. MVFR-VFR CONDS WITH SCT -SHRA THRU 12Z ALG/AHD OF
FNT...THEN VFR CONDS WITH FEW-SCT040 AND GRDL CI/CS DECK AFT
22Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SLW









FXUS61 KBTV 130215
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1010 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. MESSY
SURFACE PATTERN OVERNIGHT WITH SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE SFC WARM FRONT
HAS ADVANCED NEWRD TO LIE FROM SRN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO JUST NORTH OF
BURLINGTON TO JUST SOUTH OF OTTAWA...WITH OVRRNG LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT. YET...SOME CONVECTION
LINGERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE MOHAWK VLY OF CENTRAL NY IN
CNVTV OUTFLOW BNDRY CNVGC...AND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
THRU THE NIGHT AND CROSS S-CNTRL VERMONT. THIS MAY LEAVE THE REST OF
THE FCST AREA RAIN-FREE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT BUT ADVECTION OF
VERY HIGH DWPTS SUGGESTS DVLPMT OF LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND BR/FOG AND
TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR A STICKY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. GRADUALLY...BY SUNRISE
THE UPR S/WV PASSES AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT MID AND UPR LEVELS BUT ONLY LMTD DRYING AND
CLEARING DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 420 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS IN AREA OF OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...AS REGION WILL BE IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO LIE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
CAPPED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL
GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY
MORNING...AND THEN LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAINLY QUIET WX REGIME ON TAP THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EXTENDED PORTIONS
OF FCST. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OP/ENSEMBLE PROGS INDICATING SHORTWAVE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS FA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS
FRONTAL BNDRY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE MAINLY CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE CONDS TO AREA
DURING MONDAY NT INTO TUE. WEAK SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO AREA BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH LITTLE MOISTURE
AND/OR FORCING TO WORK WITH...AS DEEPER RH/INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF MORE PRONOUNCED STATIONARY BNDRY ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC REGION. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC POP DUE TO FAVORABLE
TIMING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS AREA WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES
OF SEASONAL MID-AUGUST NORMS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DIURNAL
VARIATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA THROUGH 00Z AS OBSERVED DRY
AIR FROM SFC TO MID LVLS SHOULD PREVENT INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP FROM
REACHING GROUND TO ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE. COLUMNAR MOISTURE
PROFILES MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY OVERNT...AND WILL OPT FOR LOWER
VIS/CIGS BTWN 00-12Z ACCORDINGLY UNDER LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...THOUGH MAIN AXIS OF PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING EASTWARD AT THIS
POINT. AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND LOSE INFLUENCE
..MAINLY VFR CONDS DEVELOPING ACROSS AREA AFTER 12Z SAT WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE SW/WEST FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REB









FXUS61 KBTV 122021
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS IN AREA OF OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...AS REGION WILL BE IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO LIE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO WILL GO WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
CAPPED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL
GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY
MORNING...AND THEN LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAINLY QUIET WX REGIME ON TAP THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EXTENDED PORTIONS
OF FCST. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OP/ENSEMBLE PROGS INDICATING SHORTWAVE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS FA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS
FRONTAL BNDRY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE MAINLY CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE CONDS TO AREA
DURING MONDAY NT INTO TUE. WEAK SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO AREA BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH LITTLE MOISTURE
AND/OR FORCING TO WORK WITH...AS DEEPER RH/INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF MORE PRONOUNCED STATIONARY BNDRY ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC REGION. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC POP DUE TO FAVORABLE
TIMING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS AREA WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES
OF SEASONAL MID-AUGUST NORMS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DIURNAL
VARIATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS.
&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA THROUGH 00Z AS OBSERVED DRY
AIR FROM SFC TO MID LVLS SHOULD PREVENT INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP FROM
REACHING GROUND TO ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE. COLUMNAR MOISTURE
PROFILES MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY OVERNT...AND WILL OPT FOR LOWER
VIS/CIGS BTWN 00-12Z ACCORDINGLY UNDER LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...THOUGH MAIN AXIS OF PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING EASTWARD AT THIS
POINT. AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND LOSE INFLUENCE
...MAINLY VFR CONDS DEVELOPING ACROSS AREA AFTER 12Z SAT WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE SW/WEST FLOW.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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