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Expires:200508142200;;243769
FPUS51 KBTV 140735
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018-142200-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...
BRISTOL...RIPTON
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY 
AFTERNOON...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 
TO UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST THIS 
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE 
OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 140648
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
250 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

FCST PROBLEM IS PRECIP CHCS TODAY/TONIGHT

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS BROAD SW FLW ACRS NE CONUS AS
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE....SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS CONT TO RIDE ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY
ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ULVL DIVERGENCE PROVIDED BY RRQ OF
25H JET ACRS EASTERN CANADA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS ENHANCING
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...STRONG S/W ENERGY CONT TO DEVELOP MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS AS LLVL CAA CONTS. THIS FRNT AND ULVL
ENERGY WL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD OUR FA THIS WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRNT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN OHIO
INTO SNE ATTM WITH SLOW MOVE TO THE NORTH EXPECTED TODAY. THIS FRNT
SEPARATED 100 DEGREE AIR ACRS NEW YORK CITY/SNE TO MID 80S ACRS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT YESTERDAY WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S
COMPARED TO THE M/U 70S. EARLIER CONVECTION ACRS NY/PA HAS LEFT MANY
LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...WHICH HAS ACTED TO
POOL LLVL MOISTURE ACRS THAT REGION AND IS CRNTLY PREVENTING STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA. THESE BOUNDARIES AND EFFECTS OF
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS AFTN FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF BEST SFC CONVERGENCE AND WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WL
SETUP.

CRNT RADAR SHOWS WEAK RW JUST NORTH OF GFL MOVING INTO S VT ATTM.
HOWEVER...MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF RW/TRW IS ACRS WESTERN NY BTWN
ROC-BUF ATTM WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. DISTANCE TOOL
HAS THIS PRECIP ARRIVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZNS...IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER BY 12Z. MORE LIGHT RW IS BEING DETECTED BY TYX ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THIS WL ENTER THE SLV BY 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
BIG FCST CONCERN WL BE THE MOVEMENT OF SFC BOUNDARY AND SETUP OF
HEAVY RAIN AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG ULVL JET AND GOOD SFC
CONVERGENCE. BASED ON BETTER INITIALIZATION OF SFC BOUNDARY/LOW PRES
ACRS NORTHERN OHIO AND PLACEMENT OF ULVL JET ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA WL
TREND FCST TOWARD GFS. HOWEVER...BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS AND BEST
LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND 85H CONVERGENCE OFF THE GFS AND
ASSOCIATED QPF FIELDS FEEL THE GFS IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP. MEANWHILE...NAM IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF
ACRS OUR FA...BUT HAS A STRONG AXIS OF 85H THETA E CONVERGENCE AND
GOOD LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH ENTERS SLV BY 12Z AND MVS INTO
THE NE KINGDOM BY 18Z TODAY. FEEL GFS IS SUFFERING ONCE AGAIN FROM
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...BUT THINK ITS OVERALL DEPICTION
OF THIS EVENT IS GOOD AND WL USE FOR THIS FCST. IN GENERAL...I WL
SHIFT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IN GRIDS ACRS OUR SOUTHERN FA...BASED ON CRNT
RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRES. THE SURFACE LOW
WL TRACK FROM NORTHERN OHIO THIS MORNING ACRS SOUTHERN NY TODAY AND
INTO SNE BY THIS EVENING. THIS TRACK WL PLACE HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS
SOUTHERN NY AND SNE THRU THIS EVENING.

WITH FA NORTH OF SFC FRNT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED FEEL TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S MOST LOCATIONS. I WL FOLLOW VERY CLOSELY
TO 00Z GUIDANCE...GIVEN PERFORMANCE ACRS OUR CWA THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. ALSO...WITH FRNT STAYING SOUTH OF FA THIS WL PREVENT BEST LLVL
INSTABILITY FROM ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...FRNT ONCE AGAIN DROPS INTO SNE AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA. GIVEN SOME LEFTOVER
MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY MENTION AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER ACRS
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZNS...BUT OTHERWISE WL KEEP FCST DRY. 1000-500MB RH
PROGS SUGGEST SOME CLRING DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR
CWA BY 06Z.

MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR FA AS LLVL CAA CONTS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS ARE BTWN 10-12C...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M70S TO NEAR
80F...WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MONDAY
NITE...NAM SHOWS SOME RW DEVELOPING ACRS THE SLV AS WEAK 5H VORT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/LIFT ENTER OUR WESTERN ZNS. HOWEVER...FEEL
ATMOSPHERE WL BE CAPPED AND TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP AND WL KEEP
FCST DRY ATTM.

TUESDAY...WEAK SFC TROF AND ANOTHER 5H VORT MOVE ACRS OUR CWA FROM
NW TO SE. HOWEVER...SYSTEM LACKS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND BEST ULVL
DYNAMICS STAY IN SOUTHERN CANADA ATTM. ALSO...FEEL BEST LLVL
INSTABILITY WL BE ACRS SNE. WL INCREASE POPS TO SCHC AND WL UPDATE
DAYSHIFT ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT POPS LATE TUES.
OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 14C SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO THE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
MULTIPLE BNDRYS ACRS NE CONUS WITH THE FNT THAT PUSHED THRU YDY
DRAPED ACRS SNE SEPARATING THE "STEAMY AIR" FM THE "DRIER" HEAT
ACRS FA. ANTHR BNDRY ACRS ST LWRNC VLY CANADA POISED TO MV ACRS
FA TDY WITH COOLER/DRIER BEHIND THIS BNDRY.

UPSTREAM...SVRL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES IN OH RVR VLY DISSIPATING BUT
SW FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING GOOD MOISTURE FEED ALG APPRCHG BNDRY. NAM
DOESN'T PICK-UP ON THIS WHILE GFS DOES YET APPARENTLY OVERDONE.

ALRDY...MID DECK STREAMING INTO FA WITH -SHRA ACRS ST LWRNC VLY
ALG/BEHIND BNDRY. LWRG/THICKENING TRENDS WITH -SHRA PRIMARILY ACRS
NY TAF SITES BTWN 12-18Z AND VT 14-20Z. FLOW/GRADIENT WEAK ALLOWING
FOR FOG LATE TNGT/ERLY MON.

VFR CONDS FOR MUCH OF PERIOD WITH MVFR FOR CIGS/VSBY DRG AND PSBLY
AFT PCPN. LCLZD IFR AT KSLK WITH PCPN AND THEN AFT 04Z AT KMPV/KSLK
WITH FOG AS WELL AS PSBLY KMSS AND KBTV BEYOND 06Z.

.CLIMATE...
UPDATE ON STATS FM THU MRNG AFD...

IT'S BEEN A WARM SUMMER ACRS FA BUT NOT "HOT" AS SNE AND MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE NATION. THE FOLLOWING ARE MONTHLY DEPARTURES
(SO FAR)...AS WELL AS # DAYS AOA 90F AND 80F RESPECTIVELY AND
THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS/YR.

JUNE... +5.1    JULY...+2.1     AUGUST...+4.9

# DAYS AOA 90 DEGREES - 5  (NORMAL - 6)   RECORD - 26 (1949)
# DAYS AOA 80 DEGREES - 55 (NORMAL - 53)  RECORD - 78 (1959)

$$


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SLW
CLIMATE...SLW









FXUS61 KBTV 140249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY
INCREASING AS WEAK WAVE ON THE H8 FRONT IN VICINITY OF DETROIT
RIPPLES NEWRD TWD NRN NY.  THERMAL AND MSTR GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN
RELAXED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND FRONTAL CONVGC
MINIMIZE...BY CNVTV OUTFLOW BNDRY WHICH HAS SLIPPED WAY DOWN INTO PA
AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. AGREE WITH EARLIER FORECASTER THAT THE WAVE
WILL FURTHER DE-AMPLIFY IN TIGHT SWLY UPR GRADIENT AS IT APCHS
SUNDAY AND MSTR CNVGC WILL BE DISPERSED BY CNVTV BNDRY WELL TO THE
SOUTH...SO ANY RAINFALL SUNDAY WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 400 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WK CDFNT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF FA...ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO RGN...AS EVIDENCED BY SFC DWPTS IN UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ALG WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
SRN TIER OF NYS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A P/C DRY NIGHT. WITH WSW
FLOW ALOFT AND NO SIGNIFICANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...BELIEVE THIS FRONT WILL RMN STATIONARY ACRS SRN TIER OF NYS
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ENE ALG THE BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT THRU
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW ON SUNDAY...ACRS SRN VT DURING THE PM HRS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
THEIR QPF IS OVERDONE. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAINR OR SHWRS TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WITH ANY THNDSTRM ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO SRN VT. WITH CLDS AND HIGH POPS...BELIEVE TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HIGH...SO HAVE UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES.

SHWRS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW MOVES OFF NEW ENG CST.
ZONAL FLOW OVER RGN MON THRU TUES. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT BUILDS INTO FA FROM GRTLKS MONDAY
AND DEPRESSES SOUTH OF AREA TUES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AS LATEST
ENSEMBLE/OPEATIONAL GUIDANCE STILL IN AGREEMENT ON OVERALL WX
SCENARIO DURING DAYS 4-7. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS FA
DURING DAY ON WED...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLT/LOW CHC POP WITH THIS
FEATURE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN LOCAL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...BUT BNDRY LAYER HEATING COMBINED W/FAVORABLE TIMING OF
FROPA WOULD ARGUE FOR AT LEAST WDLY SCT/SCT CONVECTION DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTERWARDS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WED NT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. BY FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORE IMPRESSIVE FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES AND CROSSES
AREA. WILL OPT TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS DURING THESE PERIODS...AND WILL
ALSO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FRIDAY...AND FOR ARRIVAL OF COOLER CP AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT MID
TO UPPER LVL RH TO TRAVERSE AREA DURING TIME FRAME...WITH CIGS
BECOMING WIDEPSPREAD BKN/OVC DURING OVERNT HOURS. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDS DUE TO VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED MTN LOCALES
BTWN 08-12Z...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SCT AT BEST. CIGS TO BEGIN
GRADUALLY LOWERING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFT SUNDAY AS SFC WAVE
APPROACHES FROM SW...BUT VFR CONDS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REB









FXUS61 KBTV 132005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WK CDFNT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF FA...ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO RGN...AS EVIDENCED BY SFC DWPTS IN UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ALG WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
SRN TIER OF NYS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A P/C DRY NIGHT. WITH WSW
FLOW ALOFT AND NO SIGNIFICANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...BELIEVE THIS FRONT WILL RMN STATIONARY ACRS SRN TIER OF NYS
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ENE ALG THE BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT THRU
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW ON SUNDAY...ACRS SRN VT DURING THE PM HRS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
THEIR QPF IS OVERDONE. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAINR OR SHWRS TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WITH ANY THNDSTRM ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO SRN VT. WITH CLDS AND HIGH POPS...BELIEVE TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HIGH...SO HAVE UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES.

SHWRS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW MOVES OFF NEW ENG CST.
ZONAL FLOW OVER RGN MON THRU TUES. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT BUILDS INTO FA FROM GRTLKS MONDAY
AND DEPRESSES SOUTH OF AREA TUES. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AS LATEST
ENSEMBLE/OPEATIONAL GUIDANCE STILL IN AGREEMENT ON OVERALL WX
SCENARIO DURING DAYS 4-7. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS FA
DURING DAY ON WED...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLT/LOW CHC POP WITH THIS
FEATURE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN LOCAL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...BUT BNDRY LAYER HEATING COMBINED W/FAVORABLE TIMING OF
FROPA WOULD ARGUE FOR AT LEAST WDLY SCT/SCT CONVECTION DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTERWARDS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WED NT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. BY FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORE IMPRESSIVE FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES AND CROSSES
AREA. WILL OPT TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS DURING THESE PERIODS...AND WILL
ALSO LOWER TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FRIDAY...AND FOR ARRIVAL OF COOLER CP AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT MID
TO UPPER LVL RH TO TRAVERSE AREA DURING TIME FRAME...WITH CIGS
BECOMING WIDEPSPREAD BKN/OVC DURING OVERNT HOURS. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDS DUE TO VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED MTN LOCALES
BTWN 08-12Z...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SCT AT BEST. CIGS TO BEGIN
GRADUALLY LOWERING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFT SUNDAY AS SFC WAVE
APPROACHES FROM SW...BUT VFR CONDS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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