Last night's forecast looks good.  Snow level from what I can tell has 
been around 2000ft in the Catskills, Adirondacks, and Green Mountains.  
I've been checking all the sources and have seen reports of snow above 
2,000ft even down in southern Vermont and the Catskills.  My bet is the 
snow level will quickly drop now in the Adirondacks with Saranac Lake 
reporting mixed precipitation at 1,500ft.

12z models are further east with the low pressure track which is very good 
for Vermont in terms of snowfall.  Wrap around moisture is also looking 
better with the 12z statistical guidence showing snow levels dropping 
really quickly this afternoon and evening with even BTV seeing a change to 
snow between 9pm and midnight.  I think the MOS are overdone but GFS print 
out has BTV with 4" and NAM with 6"...up from 0" on both models last night.

The change is that the upper level low is swinging further southeast and 
really digging in which will take it on a track favorable for heavy 
snowfall in the Green Mountains, Adirondacks, Catskills and maybe even 
Berkshires.  What should happen this evening is the deformation band will 
set up across the North Country...this heavier precipitation and cold air 
advection on the backside of the low will drop snow levels rapidly.  
Currently I think the atmosphere is only being able to cool itself down to 
2,000ft and maybe 1,500ft in heavier bursts as the process of melting 
snowflakes eats up heat from the atmosphere.  So I think the snow level 
may stall around 1,500ft through this afternoon until we can get some 
colder air into the mix.  Then we should see snow levels drop rapidly as 
the column cools to near freezing.  So, if areas are getting rain at 37-
40F right now, it'll probably stay that way until later this 
afternoon...then once the snow falling through the atmosphere is able to 
cool it enough, temperatures should drop a quick 4-6F along with a change 
to snow.  There is a very fine line of warmer rain temps, and much cooler 
snow temps.  

It'll be fun to watch this evening...I think my forecast from last night 
is looking good so I'll let it ride.  Only exception would be maybe to 
increase snowfall at the lower elevations tonight.  BTV needs to upgrade 
the Green Mtns to a Winter Storm Warning and hoist Advisories for the 
Champlain Valley from Middlebury northward.  I dont think real significant 
accums will occur down here (maybe 1-3") but it will be the first winter 
driving conditions early tomorrow morning for a large portion of the North 


ps: Keep reports coming this afternoon as you hear or see them. 

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