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Expires:200510282315;;958162
FPUS51 KBTV 280828
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
428 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-282315-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
428 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER. COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
20 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 
UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 
MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 280738
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
338 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SATL IMAGERY AND SFC RPTS INDC LARGE AREA OF CLDS CONTS OVER NEW ENG
AND GRTLKS RGN. LAST NITES ACTUAL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS BUFKIT INDCS
INVER ARND H/8 LVL WITH CLDS DECK ARND 4K FT. SFC HI PRES CNTRD ATTM
OVR UPR MO VLY AND WRN GRTLKS WITH RDG EXTDG E THRU OH VLY. WHILE
THIS HI WL BE MAIN SFC FEATURE THRU SUNDAY...PLNTY OF LO LVL MSTR
RMNS SO EXPC VARYING AMTS OF CLD COVER OVR NE THRU SAT NGT. HV
TWEAKED TDYS HI TEMPS DOWN WITH CLDS AND TNGTS MINS DOWN A BIT FM
GUIDANCE AS SKIES BCM PTLY CLDY LATE. THEN REINTRODUCE CLDS SAT.

H/5 TROF OVR QUE-NY STATE-LK ERIE AXIS EVOLVES INTO CLOSED LO OVR
NY/PA TDY AND TNGT AND MOVS OFF THE S COAST OF LONG ISLD SAT. THIS
FEATURE EVIDENT IN SATL IMAGERY CONFIRMING GFS SOLUTION. CLOSED
H/5 LO MOVS E OF NEW ENG SUNDAY TO THE S OF NOVA SCOTIA. ASOCD SFC
LO ORGANISES WELL OFSHR AND MOVS WELL E OF NEW ENG DURG SAT...TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

MSTR FIELD FM THIS OCEAN SYS WRAPS ACRS SRN AND ERN NEW ENG AND
PRBLY IMPACTS SE VT SAT-SAT NGT BUT GNRLY JUST REINFORCES THE CLD
COVER. DRY AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY AS H/5 RDG MOVS INTO
GRTLKS RGN WITH UPR LVL NW FLO ACRS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
H/5 RDG MOVS INTO AND ACRS NEW ENG MON WITH ZONAL H/5 FLO BCMNG
ESTABLISHED. WK SHRT WVES MOV THRU THIS FLO IMPACTING OUR AREA MON
NGT AND TUE AND THEN AGAIN WED NGT-THURS.

MODERATING TEMPS AS NOTED IN PREV FCST SUN-TUE...THE COOLER WX
RETURNS WED AND THURS. CDFNT MOVS ACRS AREA TUES WITH ASOCD CHC
SHOWERS. UPR LVL TROFINESS WL SUPPORT CHC RA/SN SHWRS TUE NT AND WED.

NO BIG CHGS TO THIS PTN OF FCST.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL FORECAST SITES THRU ENTIRE PERIOD. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED...EXPECT CHANCE FOR A FLURRY AT KSLK THRU EARLY
MORNING AND AFT 00Z. WINDS LGT/VAR THRU 12Z...BECOMG LGT OUT OF THE
NORTH...THEN GOING LGT/VAR AGAIN AFT 22Z-00Z.
&&

.MARINE...
SINCE OCTOBER 1ST...THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE LEVEL HAS RISEN OVER 3
FEET (95.24 ON THE 1ST...98.34 AS OF THE 27TH). YESTERDAY/S LAKE
LEVEL OF 98.34 FEET IS THE HIGHEST IT HAS BEEN ON THIS DATE SINCE
1977...WHEN IT WAS 98.95 FEET. THE ALL-TIME HIGH LAKE LEVEL FOR
OCTOBER IS 99.10 FEET...WHICH OCCURRED ON THE 21ST...22ND AND 23RD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS ACROSS OUR FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT...WITH EXTENSIVE CLD
COVER THRU THE SHORT TERM AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES TO OUR WEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SFH
LONG TERM...SFH
AVIATION...JN
MARINE...JN
FIRE WEATHER...SFH









FXUS61 KBTV 280245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST OVER THE REGION. REPORTS HAVE COME IN OF SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WHICH GOING FORECAST HAS COVERED WELL. GOING
FORECAST OF CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT LOOKS REAL GOOD ALONG WITH
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES. REMAINDER OF GOING FORECAST ON
TRACK...SO ONCE AGAIN NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 254 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION
TONITE THRU SAT NITE. STORM SYS TO MOVE UP TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG (OR
FURTHER OUT TO SEA?) ON FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM. UPR TROF TO
MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA FROM THE NW TONITE THRU EARLY ON SAT.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON FRI...THEN WAA TO
DEVELOP ON FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. H85 TEMPS/H925 WET-BULB TEMPS TO
GO POSITIVE ACRS THE FA EARLY ON SAT NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATER ON SAT NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO
AFFECT THE FA TONITE THRU MUCH OF FRI...WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS
THE FA ON SAT. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON
FRI. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TONITE...EARLY ON
SAT...AND LATER ON SAT NITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON
SAT AND EARLY ON SAT NITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AROUND
0.3" THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW LT RETURNS ACRS MUCH OF THE FA ATTM.
WILL HOLD ONTO SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE FA INTO TONITE FOR POSSIBLE
-SHRASN. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLDS ACRS THE FA THRU AT LEAST EARLY ON
SAT NITE. WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF SCHC POPS ON FRI NITE AND INTO
SAT FOR POSSIBLE PCPN ACRS THE FA FROM EITHER THE UPR LOW PASSAGE OR
SOME MSTR FROM THE COASTAL STORM. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 20S
TONITE AND ON FRI NITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE U30S-M40S ON FRI AND
IN THE 40S ON SAT.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
330 PM.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MAIN WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE A
WELCOMED RETURN TO SEASONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SUN-TUE TIME FRAME...THEN A CHC OF PCPN LATER
TUE INTO WED WITH A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LATEST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FLATTER
ZONAL FLOW TO BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
TELECONNECTIONS STILL ADVERTISING INCREASINGLY POSITIVE
AO/STRENGTHENING POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH FAVORS THIS
SCENARIO. THUS MILDER MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TO RETURN DURING SUN-MON...
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY AS MEAN HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC
AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS AREA. BY LATER TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
LIKELY PUSH SE ACROSS AREA ALONG WITH CHC SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM TO
PUSH THROUGH QUICKLY BY TUE EVENING...BUT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVERSE AREA TUE NT INTO WED ALONG WITH CHCS OF -SHRASN AS UPPER
TROUGH PASSES. TEMPS TO RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS BY WED/THU
TIME FRAME WITH THIS FEATURE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY OVERCAST VFR CONDS IN THE VALLEYS AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACRS
MTN LOCALES OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH PRONOUNCED 850 HPA SYNOPTIC INVERSION AND UPPER LOW TAKES
PLACE ACROSS AREA. WILL ALSO OPT TO MENTION OUTSIDE CHC OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURE. WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO CALM THROUGHOUT THE FCST CYCLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON








FXUS61 KBTV 271854
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
254 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION
TONITE THRU SAT NITE. STORM SYS TO MOVE UP TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG (OR
FURTHER OUT TO SEA?) ON FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM. UPR TROF TO
MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA FROM THE NW TONITE THRU EARLY ON SAT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON FRI...THEN WAA TO
DEVELOP ON FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. H85 TEMPS/H925 WET-BULB TEMPS TO
GO POSITIVE ACRS THE FA EARLY ON SAT NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATER ON SAT NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO
AFFECT THE FA TONITE THRU MUCH OF FRI...WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS
THE FA ON SAT. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON
FRI. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TONITE...EARLY ON
SAT...AND LATER ON SAT NITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON
SAT AND EARLY ON SAT NITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AROUND
0.3" THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW LT RETURNS ACRS MUCH OF THE FA ATTM.
WILL HOLD ONTO SCHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE FA INTO TONITE FOR POSSIBLE
-SHRASN. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLDS ACRS THE FA THRU AT LEAST EARLY ON
SAT NITE. WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF SCHC POPS ON FRI NITE AND INTO
SAT FOR POSSIBLE PCPN ACRS THE FA FROM EITHER THE UPR LOW PASSAGE OR
SOME MSTR FROM THE COASTAL STORM. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 20S
TONITE AND ON FRI NITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE U30S-M40S ON FRI AND
IN THE 40S ON SAT.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
330 PM.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MAIN WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE A
WELCOMED RETURN TO SEASONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SUN-TUE TIME FRAME...THEN A CHC OF PCPN LATER
TUE INTO WED WITH A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LATEST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FLATTER
ZONAL FLOW TO BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
TELECONNECTIONS STILL ADVERTISING INCREASINGLY POSITIVE
AO/STRENGTHENING POLAR VORTEX DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH FAVORS THIS
SCENARIO. THUS MILDER MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TO RETURN DURING SUN-MON...
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY AS MEAN HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC
AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS AREA. BY LATER TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
LIKELY PUSH SE ACROSS AREA ALONG WITH CHC SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM TO
PUSH THROUGH QUICKLY BY TUE EVENING...BUT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVERSE AREA TUE NT INTO WED ALONG WITH CHCS OF -SHRASN AS UPPER
TROUGH PASSES. TEMPS TO RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS BY WED/THU
TIME FRAME WITH THIS FEATURE.

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY OVERCAST VFR CONDS IN THE VALLEYS AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACRS
MTN LOCALES OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH PRONOUNCED 850 HPA SYNOPTIC INVERSION AND UPPER LOW TAKES
PLACE ACROSS AREA. WILL ALSO OPT TO MENTION OUTSIDE CHC OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURE. WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO CALM THROUGHOUT THE FCST CYCLE.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...MURRAY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JMG




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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References

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