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Expires:200601312215;;186471
FPUS51 KBTV 310831
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-312215-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
330 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2006

.TODAY...SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS 
IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 
MID 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN has been proposed for termination. NOAA's NWS will be accepting
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FXUS61 KBTV 310932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT SLATED FOR TODAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
ALG MID ATLC CST WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TDY AS STRONG SHRTWV MOVES
THRU BASE OF LONG WAVE TROF. THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS
OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SIGNIFICANT PCPN
REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE. OUR WX WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SEVERAL
OTHER SMALLER FEATURES. SHRTWV IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW IS
PRODUCING PCPN ACRS CNTRL NY WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO VT/ERN NY
THIS AM. NRN STREAM SHRTWV DROPPING SEWRD ACRS RGN THIS
PM/TON...COMBINED WITH INVERTED SFC TROF WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
SE-NW ACRS FA TO DECAYING LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN WDSPRD BUT
GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN ACRS RGN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED TO SET UP ACRS NRN NY TDY WHERE PCPN
TOTALS SHUD BE HIGHEST...BUT STILL GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
LLVL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE IN QUESTION THRU MID
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ACRS ST LWR AND NRN CHMPLN VLYS. DURATION
AND AMTS LIMITED...WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW ANTICIPATEDD...SO NO
ADVISORIES ISSUED ATTM. SNOW AMTS TDY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO 3 INCHES. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHWRS CONTINUES
TONITE...MAINLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...WITH ANY ADDED ACCUM AN INCH
OR LESS. TEMPS TDY NOT RISING MUCH FROM EARLY MORNING READINGS...IN
FACT MAX TEMPS IN CHMPLN VLY WILL LIKELY BE THE CURRENT READINGS.

RIDGING BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT BLDS INTO FA DURING WEDNESDAY...BUT
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF FA BY EVENING...SO ITS BENEFICIAL EFFECTS
WILL BE BRF. STILL A FEW SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS PSBL ACRS NRN VT EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND IN WRN NY BY DAYS END. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AMT OF SUNSHINE IS QUESTIONABLE HOWEVER...AS MODELS
INDICATING ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR HANGS ON THRU MIDDAY...WHILE MID/HIGH
LVL MSTR MSTR RETURNS DURING PM.

SHRTWV AND ASSOCD SFC LOW MOVEW UP THRU NRN GRTLKS WED NITE. WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ACRS FA EXPECTED TO BRING AT LEAST A CHC FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW WED NITE INTO THURS AM WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
PSBL...MAINLY NRN ZONES. WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS THURS PM RESULTING IN
DRIER WX WITH SOME PARTIAL CLRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST ATTM. GFS
SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE UP THRU GRTLKS SAT NITE/SUN
RESULTING IN A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. ECMWF SUGGESTING THE INTIAL LOW
MOVES UP INTO LAKES FRI NITE...WITH SECONDARY COASTAL LOW SAT
NITE/SUN. CURRENT FCST OF RAIN OR SNOW LOOKS OK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANY -FZRA/FZDZ ACRS NY STATE (AND ANY -SHRA NEAR KBTV) EARLY THIS
MORNING TO GO OVER TO -SHSN. BASICALLY SPOTTY PCPN EXPECTED ACRS THE
FA THRU EARLY TUE NITE AT THE TAF SITES. LOWER CLDS/FG TO BE A
PROBLEM AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES AS WELL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
TUE NITE. SFC FLOW TO REMAIN LT ACRS MUCH OF THE FA INTO TUE NITE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...MURRAY









FXUS61 KBTV 310331
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1031 PM EST MON JAN 30 2006

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
WEAK CD FNT THAT PASSED SAT NGT/SUN HAD SETTLES IN LLVL COLD AIR
AND WITH WEAK GRADIENT THIS AFTN/EVE HAD ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG IN
CHMPL VLY AND WL LKLY CONT IN THOSE AREAS WHERE LGT N DRAINAGE WND
PERSISTS FOR THE NXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE...SOUTH GRADIENT
REFRESHING ENUF TO IMPROVE VSBY AND RAISE TMPS A TAD.

BASICALLY...FA IN LULL BTWN DYNAMICS OF NRN STREAM CLOSED LOW ABD
DVLPG SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH TROF AXIS MVG TOWARD/ACRS FA TUE FOR
BETTER CHC OF -SN/-SNRA.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOTS OF MOISTURE AND INVERSION ACRS FA WL GENERALLY MEAN PERSISTENCE
AND IFR CONDS ACRS FA THRU THE PERIOD. LIFR CONDS AT KBTV/KPLB WL
LKLY IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES. WDLY SCT
-DZ/-FZDZ/-SN ACRS FA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 346 PM EST MON JAN 30 2006)

SYNOPSIS...
WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHARP...HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VLY.
SRN EXTENT OF TROUGH IS DIGGING AT THE PRESENT TIME IN RESPONSE TO
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 120KT 300MB JET TRANSLATING INTO THE TROUGH
BASE. AS TROUGH ACQUIRES NEGATIVE TILT...MODELS INDICATE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...REMNANT
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL IN PLACE ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD THROUGH THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION AND THEN BISECTS THE CHAMPLAIN VLY OF NY/VT.
SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION IS MAINTAINING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VLY AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
COMPLEX LOW-LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT...AND IT SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY PREVALENT AT LOW ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR LK CHAMPLAIN.

WITH REMNANT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
BENCHMARK TOMORROW...NWWD EXTENDING SFC TROUGH AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES FROM NAM/GFS ARE OCCASIONALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ICE /SATURATION EXTENDING COLDER THAN -9C/ AND AT
OTHER TIMES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK FORCING WITH SUPERCOOLED CONDENSATE.
BASED ON THE VARIABLE MICROPHYSICS...HAVE CHOSEN TO CARRY BOTH
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE ZONES FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH...WITH PERHAPS TWO
INCHES IN S-CENTRAL VT. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES LOCKED INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY...AND HAVE MENTIONED
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL
ADVECTION/WK WIND FIELDS WILL FAVOR SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WITH MEAN TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FINALLY BUILDS IN -- ALBEIT BRIEFLY --
ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE FA BY
00Z THU...AND HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS NWRN
NY. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOST AREAS WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFFECTING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE RATHER ILL-DEFINED...AND TIMING
OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE PROBLEMATIC BASED ON LACK
OF FOCUSED VERTICAL MOTION MECHANISMS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AFTER BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AFFECTS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF POTENT LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
AFFECT REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OP/ENSEMBLE FCSTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
TOWARDS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY SOLN W/THIS FEATURE. WITH DEEP AND NEAR
MERIDIONAL NATURE OF UPPER TROUGH...GOMEX/SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
SHOULD BE WIDE OPEN FOR NORTHERLY TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
AND MILD SFC TO MID LVL TEMPS. AT THIS TIME ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS TO PRECLUDE MENTION OF ALL RAIN...THOUGH IF ABOVE TRENDS
CONTINUE AN ALL LIQUID SCENARIO TO LIKELY BE EVENTUAL OUTCOME LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AREA
LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO SHSN
AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME LK EFFECT SHSN TO
POSSIBLY LINGER ACROSS MAINLY NRN ZONES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
WIDELY VARYING CONDS ACROSS FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY IFR/MVFR
CIGS...AND VFR TO LIFR VIS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING VERY
SHALLOW SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO LIE GENERALLY STATIONARY ALONG SLV
AND EAST OF GREENS...WITH COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER CIGS/VIS. SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF FRONT HAS ALSO REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN CHVLY
WITHIN 5 MILES OF THE LAKE FROM ADDISON/CHITTENDEN COUNTY LINE NORTH
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE LOCALLY VERY POOR VIS/CIGS
NOTED AT KBTV. CONDS MARKEDLY BETTER ACROSS SRN CHVLY/DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENS WHERE EITHER ELEV AND/OR MORE SOUTHERLY
POSN HAS PLACED THESE AREAS ABOVE/SOUTH OF LOW LVL COLD AIR. WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL RH...AND GENERAL LIGHT P-GRAD ACROSS AREA...IFR/MVFR
CONDS SHOULD LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF FCST CYCLE ACROSS THE
AREA. INDEED...LATEST FOUS R1 LYR RH AND AVBL MOS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. LITTLE FORCING FOR PRECIP NOTED...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS ANY SITE THROUGH 12Z TUE.
AFTERWARDS...WILL INTRODUCE CHC OF -SHSN AS NRN EXTENT OF UPPER
TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE APPROACH REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








FXUS61 KBTV 302046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST MON JAN 30 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHARP...HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VLY.
SRN EXTENT OF TROUGH IS DIGGING AT THE PRESENT TIME IN RESPONSE TO
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 120KT 300MB JET TRANSLATING INTO THE TROUGH
BASE. AS TROUGH ACQUIRES NEGATIVE TILT...MODELS INDICATE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...REMNANT
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL IN PLACE ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD THROUGH THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION AND THEN BISECTS THE CHAMPLAIN VLY OF NY/VT.
SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION IS MAINTAINING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VLY AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS. SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
COMPLEX LOW-LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT...AND IT SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY PREVALENT AT LOW ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR LK CHAMPLAIN.

WITH REMNANT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
BENCHMARK TOMORROW...NWWD EXTENDING SFC TROUGH AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES FROM NAM/GFS ARE OCCASIONALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ICE /SATURATION EXTENDING COLDER THAN -9C/ AND AT
OTHER TIMES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK FORCING WITH SUPERCOOLED CONDENSATE.
BASED ON THE VARIABLE MICROPHYSICS...HAVE CHOSEN TO CARRY BOTH
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE ZONES FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH...WITH PERHAPS TWO
INCHES IN S-CENTRAL VT. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES LOCKED INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY...AND HAVE MENTIONED
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL
ADVECTION/WK WIND FIELDS WILL FAVOR SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WITH MEAN TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FINALLY BUILDS IN -- ALBEIT BRIEFLY --
ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT MOST AREAS DRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE FA BY
00Z THU...AND HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS NWRN
NY. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOST AREAS WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFFECTING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE RATHER ILL-DEFINED...AND TIMING
OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE PROBLEMATIC BASED ON LACK
OF FOCUSED VERTICAL MOTION MECHANISMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AFTER BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AFFECTS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF POTENT LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
AFFECT REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OP/ENSEMBLE FCSTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
TOWARDS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY SOLN W/THIS FEATURE. WITH DEEP AND NEAR
MERIDIONAL NATURE OF UPPER TROUGH...GOMEX/SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
SHOULD BE WIDE OPEN FOR NORTHERLY TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
AND MILD SFC TO MID LVL TEMPS. AT THIS TIME ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS TO PRECLUDE MENTION OF ALL RAIN...THOUGH IF ABOVE TRENDS
CONTINUE AN ALL LIQUID SCENARIO TO LIKELY BE EVENTUAL OUTCOME LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AREA
LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO SHSN
AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME LK EFFECT SHSN TO
POSSIBLY LINGER ACROSS MAINLY NRN ZONES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY VARYING CONDS ACROSS FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY IFR/MVFR
CIGS...AND VFR TO LIFR VIS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING VERY
SHALLOW SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO LIE GENERALLY STATIONARY ALONG SLV
AND EAST OF GREENS...WITH COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER CIGS/VIS. SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF FRONT HAS ALSO REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN CHVLY
WITHIN 5 MILES OF THE LAKE FROM ADDISON/CHITTENDEN COUNTY LINE NORTH
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE LOCALLY VERY POOR VIS/CIGS
NOTED AT KBTV. CONDS MARKEDLY BETTER ACROSS SRN CHVLY/DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENS WHERE EITHER ELEV AND/OR MORE SOUTHERLY
POSN HAS PLACED THESE AREAS ABOVE/SOUTH OF LOW LVL COLD AIR. WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL RH...AND GENERAL LIGHT P-GRAD ACROSS AREA...IFR/MVFR
CONDS SHOULD LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF FCST CYCLE ACROSS THE
AREA. INDEED...LATEST FOUS R1 LYR RH AND AVBL MOS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. LITTLE FORCING FOR PRECIP NOTED...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
AN OUTSIDE CHC OF A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS ANY SITE THROUGH 12Z TUE.
AFTERWARDS...WILL INTRODUCE CHC OF -SHSN AS NRN EXTENT OF UPPER
TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE APPROACH REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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