 |
 |
Staying the course...6-12" with up to 18" possible across the spine. QPF has been fairly consistent and BTV's discussion about warm/mild/stable air being wrapped into the region is valid. However, while we may not see the explosive snowfall rates of some upslope events, duration is on our side and so are upper level dynamics. 12z RUC brings snow into northern NY and northern VT around 4pm this afternoon in what looks like a band of snow showers and squalls to begin with. Snow will likely be more widespread tonight across the north country with some accumulation likely on the VT side of the Champlain Valley due to Champlain Valley convergence and lake enhancment. Still feel northern Addison County (Sugarbush and Mad River Glen) will need to be watched for enhancment from Lake Champlain in the beginning of the event before airmass modifies. 12km ETA shows higher moisture values off the lake into that region. Tonight snow is heavy at times across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. It will come in pulses depending on meso-scale wind maximums and 500mb energy. Jet energy looks very favorable in the front left quad producing ample upper level divergence tonight. 850mb frontogensis is strong along the Green Mountain spine overnight and even through the day tomorrow. I think while it might not come down exceptionally hard, 1"/hr rates are likely at times and models keep favorable conditions for upslope snow lasting through even Sunday in the northern Greens. It might not stop snowing at Jay Peak till sometime on Monday as the upper level low is cut off and not going anywhere soon. All depends on how much maritime moisture can be wrapped into the system and how long it can sustain itself. Pay attention to the wind. At Stowe, Gondola and Quad are on wind hold with only the triple getting you part way up Mansfield (looks like all high speed lifts are open on Spruce and I've heard that this year they've been able to keep those lifts running even during high wind events)...Sugarbush's report says 2 of 16 lifts are open with only the Sunkid and Welcome Mat open whatever they are. Jay's report says 8 of 8 lifts open with relatively light winds which I find interesting with a 60mph low level jet. MRG and Smuggs look in full lift operation which says something about fixed grip chairs... I have a feeling the high speed lifts at SB/Stowe(Mansfield but Spruce might be fine)/Jay might not turn till Sunday so plan accordingly. -Scott - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html