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Expires:200603062215;;988433
FPUS51 KBTV 060820
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 AM EST MON MAR 6 2006


VTZ003-004-006-007-016-062215-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD
320 AM EST MON MAR 6 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 
LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 
5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN 
THE MID 30S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET. A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 060837
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EST MON MAR 6 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL DEALING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE
REGION. FIRST IS IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING
CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA THIS MORNING AND ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.  SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A
BETTER PART OF THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SHOULD SPREAD CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW INTO MOST OF THE AREA.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF READINGS
FROM YESTERDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS LESS CLOUD COVER EXISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA TUE NITE/WED. STORM SYS TO MOVE
UP INTO THE GREAT LKS REGION ON WED NITE. S/W TO MOVE UP ACRS THE FA
LATE ON WED NITE.

H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON TUE NITE...WITH WAA ON
WED/WED NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON
WED NITE. SOME LOW-LVL /AND MID-LVL/ MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA BY LATE
ON WED NITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AOB 0.3" ON TUE NITE
THRU WED NITE. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE UPR TEENS-L20S ON TUE NITE.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLDS EXPECTED ACRS THE FA ON TUE NITE...THEN
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CLD COVER EXPECTED ACRS THE FA FROM THE
W-SW ON WED/WED NITE. WILL RETAIN THE GOING LOW CHC POPS FOR ANY
POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN BY LATER ON WED NITE ACRS MOSTLY THE WRN TIER
ZONES. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND WED NITE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AS VISIBILITIES REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. CEILING HEIGHTS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 4000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE WHEN THE THREAT FOR
SNOW EXISTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TODAY...AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MURRAY





FXUS61 KBTV 060338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
STLT PICS/SFC OBS INDICATING A LOT OF CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST
VT...WHILE REST OF FA MAINLY CLR. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
CLDS OVER SRN QUE TO DRIFT SOUTH HOWEVER...SO GOING FCST OF P/C
FOR CHMPLN VLY/ADRNDKS STILL LOOKS OK...WHILE SKIES REMAIN MSTLY
CLDY IN NE VT. RISK OF PCPN MINIMAL. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLRYS OR
LIGHT SNOW SHWRS...ESP NE VT. GOING FCST OF CHC POPS IN NE VT
STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH SLITE CHC -SHSN OR DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FCSTS LOOK OKAY AS WELL. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN TEENS. NO UPDATE NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 241 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY NICE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AFT SNOWFALL FROM EARLIER FRI
NGT/SAT. SOME CLD COVER STILL REMAINS FROM OUTER EDGE OF CLOSED LOW
IN EASTERN CANADA...WHICH LINGERS ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF VT. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE OVER NIGHT PERIOD AS ANOTHER WK
TROUGH AS SHOWN IN SAT PICS...CURRENTLY MVG SOUTH IN QUEBEC. SOME OF
THIS CLD COVER APPEARS TO BE ERODING SOMEWHAT...BUT OBS IN QUEBEC
SHOWING -SW...SO WILL PUT IN SL CHANCE OVER CVLY AND INCR IT NE INTO
NE VT TO NEAR 30-40 PERCENT FOR -SW/--SW. THIS GOES THRU AREA BY MON
MORN SETTING REGION UP FOR A NICE DAY. MDLS THEN SHOW A COUPLE OF WK
LOWS/TROUGHS CONTINUING TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE EXITING LOW THRU
MIDWEEK. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THESE WILL BE CONCENTRATED EAST OF
OUR FA...BUT WILL PUT IN SOME CLD COVER ALONG WITH SL CHANCE POPS
FOR -SW/--SW...ESPECIALLY OVER NC NE VT WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSEST TO
TAILEND OF EACH EVENT. NO MAJOR ACCUM EXPECTED WITH
EITHER...PROBABLY CLOSE TO A DUSTING. SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THEGREAT LKS REGION SHOULD ALSO FURTHER INHIBIT THE CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP...BUT WILL MENTION ANYWAYS. WITH AREA SEEING MORE SUNSHINE
DURING THIS TIME...WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR ENTIRE SHORT
TERM.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL PTRN IS WRN TROF/ERN RIDGE AT START OF PERIOD AND RATHER
PRONOUNCED RDG AT THAT FOR E COAST. GFS/ECMWF APPEAR VRY SMLR AND
CLOSER TO ECMWF OF A FEW DAYS AGO...THAT BEING SLOWER WITH SYSTEMS
INVADING RDG. HWVR RDG AXIS WL DAMPEN A TAD TO ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO
MV THRU NRN PTNS OF RDG IN BROAD SW FLOW.

TIMING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT AS BEEN THE TREND FIRST SYSTEM MVS
N/ACRS NRN FA THU NGT/ERLY FRI WITH ASSOC WRM FNT ALTHOUGH CLOSER
TRACK TO FA (COMPARED TO GRT LAKES A FEW DAYS AGO) DOESN'T BRG TOO
MUCH WRM SECTOR CONDS ACRS FA. MEANWHILE...WITH THIS SFC WAVE
PASSAGE A TRAILING WEAK CD FNT MVS ACRS FA LATE FRI/FRI NGT LKLY
STALLING ACRS SNE AS WE AWAIT A S/W REFLECTION FM LARGE CUT-OFF LOW
ACRS NRN ROCKIES.

AVIATION...
SKC ACRS TAF SITES THRU 00Z THEN S/W DIVING SE IN CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
BRG ABT SCT-BKN035 WITH VRY ISOLD -SHSN IN NRN MTNS DRG OVRNGT THEN
SCT035 AFT 12Z MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$










FXUS61 KBTV 051941
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
241 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY NICE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AFT SNOWFALL FROM EARLIER FRI
NGT/SAT. SOME CLD COVER STILL REMAINS FROM OUTER EDGE OF CLOSED LOW
IN EASTERN CANADA...WHICH LINGERS ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF VT. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE OVER NIGHT PERIOD AS ANOTHER WK
TROUGH AS SHOWN IN SAT PICS...CURRENTLY MVG SOUTH IN QUEBEC. SOME OF
THIS CLD COVER APPEARS TO BE ERODING SOMEWHAT...BUT OBS IN QUEBEC
SHOWING -SW...SO WILL PUT IN SL CHANCE OVER CVLY AND INCR IT NE INTO
NE VT TO NEAR 30-40 PERCENT FOR -SW/--SW. THIS GOES THRU AREA BY MON
MORN SETTING REGION UP FOR A NICE DAY. MDLS THEN SHOW A COUPLE OF WK
LOWS/TROUGHS CONTINUING TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE EXITING LOW THRU
MIDWEEK. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THESE WILL BE CONCENTRATED EAST OF
OUR FA...BUT WILL PUT IN SOME CLD COVER ALONG WITH SL CHANCE POPS
FOR -SW/--SW...ESPECIALLY OVER NC NE VT WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSEST TO
TAILEND OF EACH EVENT. NO MAJOR ACCUM EXPECTED WITH
EITHER...PROBABLY CLOSE TO A DUSTING. SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THEGREAT LKS REGION SHOULD ALSO FURTHER INHIBIT THE CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP...BUT WILL MENTION ANYWAYS. WITH AREA SEEING MORE SUNSHINE
DURING THIS TIME...WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR ENTIRE SHORT
TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL PTRN IS WRN TROF/ERN RIDGE AT START OF PERIOD AND RATHER
PRONOUNCED RDG AT THAT FOR E COAST. GFS/ECMWF APPEAR VRY SMLR AND
CLOSER TO ECMWF OF A FEW DAYS AGO...THAT BEING SLOWER WITH SYSTEMS
INVADING RDG. HWVR RDG AXIS WL DAMPEN A TAD TO ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO
MV THRU NRN PTNS OF RDG IN BROAD SW FLOW.

TIMING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC...BUT AS BEEN THE TREND FIRST SYSTEM MVS
N/ACRS NRN FA THU NGT/ERLY FRI WITH ASSOC WRM FNT ALTHOUGH CLOSER
TRACK TO FA (COMPARED TO GRT LAKES A FEW DAYS AGO) DOESN'T BRG TOO
MUCH WRM SECTOR CONDS ACRS FA. MEANWHILE...WITH THIS SFC WAVE
PASSAGE A TRAILING WEAK CD FNT MVS ACRS FA LATE FRI/FRI NGT LKLY
STALLING ACRS SNE AS WE AWAIT A S/W REFLECTION FM LARGE CUT-OFF LOW
ACRS NRN ROCKIES.
&&

.AVIATION...
SKC ACRS TAF SITES THRU 00Z THEN S/W DIVING SE IN CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
BRG ABT SCT-BKN035 WITH VRY ISOLD -SHSN IN NRN MTNS DRG OVRNGT THEN
SCT035 AFT 12Z MON.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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