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FPUS51 KBTV 011116
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
616 AM EST WED MAR 1 2006


VTZ003-006-016-017-012300-
ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL
616 AM EST WED MAR 1 2006

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS AROUND 15. 
WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE 
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 
MPH...BECOMING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION 
POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

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FXUS61 KBTV 011124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 AM EST WED MAR 1 2006

.UPDATE (6 AM)...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
N-CENTRAL/NERN VT TODAY AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE. EXPECTING
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH 01/21Z. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN
THE MTNS OF NRN NY/N-CENTRAL VT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCK PERSISTS VCNTY OF GREENLAND AND UPSTREAM POLAR VORTEX REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS ERN QUEBEC TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SFC COLD FRONT HAS ROTATED SEWD AROUND THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE POLAR VORTEX AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE SRN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 07Z...AND AT KPLB...IN COLD ADVECTION REGIME.
COLD ADVECTION ABATES AFTER 15Z WHICH SHOULD CONFINE ANY REMAINING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LARGE-SCALE FLOW
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AND A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
POLAR VORTEX OVER QUEBEC AND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
INTERACTION WILL BECOME IMPORTANT TOMORROW. IT HAD APPEARED IN
PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE POLAR VORTEX WOULD WEAKEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AND RETROGRADE TOWARD JAMES BAY BY EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO TAKE A TRACK ACROSS
NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGING A MODERATE SNOW EVENT TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TREND IN NWP GUIDANCE
AWAY FROM THIS EVOLUTION IN THE RUNS BEGINNING 06Z YESTERDAY...AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE 00Z SUITE THIS PAST EVENING. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING SWD ACROSS NRN QUEBEC
THIS MORNING WILL DEPRESS APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC STREAM
FURTHER SOUTH...LIMITING ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. SFC LOW TRACK IS NOW PROJECTED FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VLY AT 12Z THURSDAY TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AT 18Z...AND RAPIDLY
ESEWD TO SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 21Z THURSDAY. RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY IN THIS MORE SWD TRACK AND REFLECTION OF THIS IN 21Z NCEP
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
CUT POPS FROM LIKELY BACK TO CHANCE FOR THURSDAY. HAVE LIKEWISE
REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS FROM A 3-6 INCH RANGE TO 1-3
INCHES...AND THAT MAY BE GENEROUS. ANY AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES
WOULD BE ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VT. WILL REISSUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BY 5 AM TO RELAY THIS LATEST THINKING AND
MENTION THAT THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPS FOR THE SYSTEM UNLESS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OCCURS.

THE MORE SWD TRACK OF THIS SYNOPTIC LOW WILL NOT ELIMINATE OUR
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...HOWEVER. THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE
SWD MIGRATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM QUEBEC WILL BRING FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A
MORE ROBUST THREAT ON FRIDAY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12-18Z. IN
FACT...MAGNITUDE OF 500MB VORT MAX AND DPVA FRIDAY MORNING SUGGESTS
SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHICH MAY RESULT IN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW. DEEP-LAYER NLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AND MUCH OF N-CENTRAL/NERN VT FOR THE 12-18Z
PERIOD FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSAGE OF THIS SHARP TROUGH FROM THE
NORTH AND EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

STAYED CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY SCT-BKN MID LVL VFR CIGS OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS AS
FA REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE AND SEMI-STATIONARY POLAR VORTEX ACROSS
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME WDLY SCT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN
THROUGH 12Z POSSBL...MAINLY MTN LOCALES...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...JMG








FXUS61 KBTV 010752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
250 AM EST WED MAR 1 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCK PERSISTS VCNTY OF GREENLAND AND UPSTREAM POLAR VORTEX REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS ERN QUEBEC TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SFC COLD FRONT HAS ROTATED SEWD AROUND THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE POLAR VORTEX AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE SRN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 07Z...AND AT KPLB...IN COLD ADVECTION REGIME.
COLD ADVECTION ABATES AFTER 15Z WHICH SHOULD CONFINE ANY REMAINING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LARGE-SCALE FLOW
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AND A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
POLAR VORTEX OVER QUEBEC AND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
INTERACTION WILL BECOME IMPORTANT TOMORROW. IT HAD APPEARED IN
PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE POLAR VORTEX WOULD WEAKEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AND RETROGRADE TOWARD JAMES BAY BY EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO TAKE A TRACK ACROSS
NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGING A MODERATE SNOW EVENT TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TREND IN NWP GUIDANCE
AWAY FROM THIS EVOLUTION IN THE RUNS BEGINNING 06Z YESTERDAY...AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE 00Z SUITE THIS PAST EVENING. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING SWD ACROSS NRN QUEBEC
THIS MORNING WILL DEPRESS APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC STREAM
FURTHER SOUTH...LIMITING ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. SFC LOW TRACK IS NOW PROJECTED FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VLY AT 12Z THURSDAY TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AT 18Z...AND RAPIDLY
ESEWD TO SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 21Z THURSDAY. RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY IN THIS MORE SWD TRACK AND REFLECTION OF THIS IN 21Z NCEP
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
CUT POPS FROM LIKELY BACK TO CHANCE FOR THURSDAY. HAVE LIKEWISE
REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS FROM A 3-6 INCH RANGE TO 1-3
INCHES...AND THAT MAY BE GENEROUS. ANY AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES
WOULD BE ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VT. WILL REISSUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BY 5 AM TO RELAY THIS LATEST THINKING AND
MENTION THAT THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPS FOR THE SYSTEM UNLESS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OCCURS.

THE MORE SWD TRACK OF THIS SYNOPTIC LOW WILL NOT ELIMINATE OUR
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...HOWEVER. THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE
SWD MIGRATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM QUEBEC WILL BRING FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A
MORE ROBUST THREAT ON FRIDAY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12-18Z. IN
FACT...MAGNITUDE OF 500MB VORT MAX AND DPVA FRIDAY MORNING SUGGESTS
SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHICH MAY RESULT IN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW. DEEP-LAYER NLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AND MUCH OF N-CENTRAL/NERN VT FOR THE 12-18Z
PERIOD FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSAGE OF THIS SHARP TROUGH FROM THE
NORTH AND EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

STAYED CLOSE TO MOS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN 5-10F BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY SCT-BKN MID LVL VFR CIGS OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS AS
FA REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE AND SEMI-STATIONARY POLAR VORTEX ACROSS
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME WDLY SCT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN
THROUGH 12Z POSSBL...MAINLY MTN LOCALES...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...JMG






FXUS61 KBTV 010309
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1009 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED...SO NO UPDATES TO THE ZONE
FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 240 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2006/

SYNOPSIS...
LARGE POLAR VORTEX CIRCULATION CONTS TO SIT AND SPIN ACRS EASTERN
CANADA THIS AFTN WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS ROTATING AROUND THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO IMPACT
OUR FA IS NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA ATTM AND WL MOVE ACRS FA
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...STRONG MID/UPPER LVL TROF APPROACHING WESTERN
CONUS IS BREAKING DOWN RIDGE ACRS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A PIECE OF
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WL PUSH AHEAD OF MAIN TROF AXIS AND PROVIDE FA WITH SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY. DETAILS WL FOLLOW IN SHORT TERM PORTION OF FCST DISCUSSION
BLW.

SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK BOUNDARY/COLD FRNT ASSOCIATED WITH ULVL
ENERGY JUST NORTH OF SLV ATTM. THIS LLVL BOUNDARY WL PUSH ACRS OUR
FA TONIGHT AND WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BY 06Z. VIS SAT PIC SHOWS
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS OUR CWA IN ADVANCE OF S/W
ENERGY AND SOME LIMITED VERTICAL EXTEND CU OVER THE HIGHER TRRN OF
THE DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP POLAR VORTEX CIRCULATION CONTS ACRS EASTERN CANADA WITH POTENT
5H VORT MOVING ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT. BEST PVA AND RIBBON OF
1000-500MB RH WL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN FA BY 00Z WEDS AND THRU CWA
BY 06Z. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE LLVL UPSLOPE FLW...SOME
ENHANCED 1000-850MB MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...AND >6 C/KM
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES. GIVEN...FLUFF FACTOR FEEL JAY PEAK WL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES...HOWEVER DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE QUICKLY
DISSIPATES AND BUFKIT CROSS SECTION SHOWS NO RH IN FAVORABLE SNOW
GROWTH REGION AFT 09Z TONIGHT...SO PRECIP WL END BY WEDS AM.
OTHERWISE...WL MENTION CHC POPS TO SLIGHT CHC POPS ACRS VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND SOUTHERN VT...COULD SEE A FLUFFY INCH IN A FEW SPOTS.
TEMPS WL BE TRICKY BASED ON WINDS/CLOUDS BEFORE 06Z AND IF LLVL
TEMPS INVERSION DEVELOPS AND WINDS DECOUPLE TOWARD MORNING. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL TEMP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT SLK...MSS...MPV...
AND VSF...COMBINED WITH COOLER 85H AND 925MB TEMPS WL TRIM LOWS BY 2
TO 5 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO KEEP TEMPS BTWN 5-10F IN
THE CPV.

WEDS...NW FLW ALOFT CONTS WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THERMAL
PROFILE ANTICIPATED. WL MENTION SCHC TO CHC POPS ACRS NORTH-CENTRAL
VT MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 5H VORT AND INCREASE 1000-500MB RH.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/LIFT SNOW WL BE VERY LIGHT...PROBABLY ONLY
FLURRIES. OUR 85H TEMPS START NEAR -25C AT BTV BUT WARM TO -12C BY
00Z THURS...WHICH SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN LLVL NORTHWEST FLW. WL TRIM
SEVERAL DEGREES OFF MACHINE NUMBERS AND MENTION HIGHS U10S VALLEYS
TO L10S MTNS.

THURS...NEXT CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL IMPACT FA...BUT MODELS ARE NOT
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/LIFT. NAM CONTS TO BE FURTHEREST NORTH WITH TRACKING SFC
LOW ACRS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z THURS
WITH REDEVELOP OVER SNE BY 00Z FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...GFS TRACKS LOW
ACRS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY THRU CENTRAL PA AND OFF THE NJ COAST BY
00Z FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PLACE BEST LLVL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVERGENCE AND THERMAL GRADIENT SOUTH OF FA. HOWEVER...NAM
PLACES BEST 7H FG FORCING ACRS OUR FA BY 18Z THURS WITH STRONG 85H
AND 7H THERMAL ADVECTION AND POTENT 5H VORT MOVING ACRS OUR FA. IN
ADDITION...NAM PLACES BETTER ULVL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS OUR FA ON THURS...THUS MORE QPF IS PRODUCED.
GIVEN...DEPTH OF COLD AIR AND TROF ACRS EASTERN CONUS...I FEEL NAM
IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH SYSTEM AND TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO OUR FA WITH PWS APPROACHING 1.00". IF MODELS CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD THE WARMER NAM WE WOULD HAVE TO INSERT SOME IP/FZRA
IN SOUTHERN ZNS...BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE AND WARM LAYER BTWN
850-700MB. FEEL SFC TRACK WL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S
SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY TO WINDSOR COUNTY VT...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
ORANGE/ADDISON COUNTIES AND 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR CENTRAL VT...AND 1 TO
3 INCHES FOR SLV/NORTHERN VT. THE EXPECTED QPF WL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAYS SYSTEM...BUT FLUFF FACTOR WL BE LESS GIVEN THERMAL
PROFILE. ALSO...BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/OMEGA BULLEYES WITH BEST AREA OF SNOW GROWTH...WHICH
WL SUPPORT FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND BAND OF 7H FGEN FORCING
MOVING ACRS OUR FA...SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW ON
THURS BTWN 15Z-21Z. EXPECT DURATION OF EVENT TO BE UNDER 12HRS WITH
BEST LIFT/MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE BY 06Z FRI.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER 5H VORT ROUNDS TROF BASED WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC
REFLECTION. THEREFORE WL MENTION CHC POPS MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW TROFS TO MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA ON FRI NITE AND SAT. HI PRESS
LOOKS TO BASICALLY AFFECT THE FA FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STILL AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR A COASTAL STORM ON NEXT MON THRU
TUE...BUT WE/LL HAVE TO SEE. HAVE KEPT POPS AOB SCHC THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HAVE LOADED IN THE LATEST HPC DEWPT/WIND
DATA...WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE EXISTING TEMP GRIDS BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME CLDS/-SHSN TO MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA FROM THE NORTH OVRNITE
TONITE. SFC WINDS ACRS THE FA TO REMAIN W-NW THRU EARLY ON WED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH









FXUS61 KBTV 281938
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
240 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2006

FCST PROBLEM WL BE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ON
THURS...FOLLOWED BY DAILY TEMPS

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE POLAR VORTEX CIRCULATION CONTS TO SIT AND SPIN ACRS EASTERN
CANADA THIS AFTN WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS ROTATING AROUND THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO IMPACT
OUR FA IS NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA ATTM AND WL MOVE ACRS FA
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...STRONG MID/UPPER LVL TROF APPROACHING WESTERN
CONUS IS BREAKING DOWN RIDGE ACRS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A PIECE OF
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WL PUSH AHEAD OF MAIN TROF AXIS AND PROVIDE FA WITH SOME SNOW ON
THURSDAY. DETAILS WL FOLLOW IN SHORT TERM PORTION OF FCST DISCUSSION
BLW.

SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK BOUNDARY/COLD FRNT ASSOCIATED WITH ULVL
ENERGY JUST NORTH OF SLV ATTM. THIS LLVL BOUNDARY WL PUSH ACRS OUR
FA TONIGHT AND WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BY 06Z. VIS SAT PIC SHOWS
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS OUR CWA IN ADVANCE OF S/W
ENERGY AND SOME LIMITED VERTICAL EXTEND CU OVER THE HIGHER TRRN OF
THE DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP POLAR VORTEX CIRCULATION CONTS ACRS EASTERN CANADA WITH POTENT
5H VORT MOVING ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT. BEST PVA AND RIBBON OF
1000-500MB RH WL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN FA BY 00Z WEDS AND THRU CWA
BY 06Z. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE LLVL UPSLOPE FLW...SOME
ENHANCED 1000-850MB MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...AND >6 C/KM
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES. GIVEN...FLUFF FACTOR FEEL JAY PEAK WL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES...HOWEVER DEPTH OF LLVL MOISTURE QUICKLY
DISSIPATES AND BUFKIT CROSS SECTION SHOWS NO RH IN FAVORABLE SNOW
GROWTH REGION AFT 09Z TONIGHT...SO PRECIP WL END BY WEDS AM.
OTHERWISE...WL MENTION CHC POPS TO SLIGHT CHC POPS ACRS VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND SOUTHERN VT...COULD SEE A FLUFFY INCH IN A FEW SPOTS.
TEMPS WL BE TRICKY BASED ON WINDS/CLOUDS BEFORE 06Z AND IF LLVL
TEMPS INVERSION DEVELOPS AND WINDS DECOUPLE TOWARD MORNING. NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL TEMP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT SLK...MSS...MPV...
AND VSF...COMBINED WITH COOLER 85H AND 925MB TEMPS WL TRIM LOWS BY 2
TO 5 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO KEEP TEMPS BTWN 5-10F IN
THE CPV.

WEDS...NW FLW ALOFT CONTS WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THERMAL
PROFILE ANTICIPATED. WL MENTION SCHC TO CHC POPS ACRS NORTH-CENTRAL
VT MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 5H VORT AND INCREASE 1000-500MB RH.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/LIFT SNOW WL BE VERY LIGHT...PROBABLY ONLY
FLURRIES. OUR 85H TEMPS START NEAR -25C AT BTV BUT WARM TO -12C BY
00Z THURS...WHICH SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN LLVL NORTHWEST FLW. WL TRIM
SEVERAL DEGREES OFF MACHINE NUMBERS AND MENTION HIGHS U10S VALLEYS
TO L10S MTNS.

THURS...NEXT CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL IMPACT FA...BUT MODELS ARE NOT
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/LIFT. NAM CONTS TO BE FURTHEREST NORTH WITH TRACKING SFC
LOW ACRS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL NY BY 12Z THURS
WITH REDEVELOP OVER SNE BY 00Z FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...GFS TRACKS LOW
ACRS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY THRU CENTRAL PA AND OFF THE NJ COAST BY
00Z FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PLACE BEST LLVL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVERGENCE AND THERMAL GRADIENT SOUTH OF FA. HOWEVER...NAM
PLACES BEST 7H FG FORCING ACRS OUR FA BY 18Z THURS WITH STRONG 85H
AND 7H THERMAL ADVECTION AND POTENT 5H VORT MOVING ACRS OUR FA. IN
ADDITION...NAM PLACES BETTER ULVL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS OUR FA ON THURS...THUS MORE QPF IS PRODUCED.
GIVEN...DEPTH OF COLD AIR AND TROF ACRS EASTERN CONUS...I FEEL NAM
IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH SYSTEM AND TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO OUR FA WITH PWS APPROACHING 1.00". IF MODELS CONTINUE
TO TREND TOWARD THE WARMER NAM WE WOULD HAVE TO INSERT SOME IP/FZRA
IN SOUTHERN ZNS...BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE AND WARM LAYER BTWN
850-700MB. FEEL SFC TRACK WL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S
SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY TO WINDSOR COUNTY VT...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
ORANGE/ADDISON COUNTIES AND 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR CENTRAL VT...AND 1 TO
3 INCHES FOR SLV/NORTHERN VT. THE EXPECTED QPF WL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAYS SYSTEM...BUT FLUFF FACTOR WL BE LESS GIVEN THERMAL
PROFILE. ALSO...BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/OMEGA BULLEYES WITH BEST AREA OF SNOW GROWTH...WHICH
WL SUPPORT FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND BAND OF 7H FGEN FORCING
MOVING ACRS OUR FA...SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW ON
THURS BTWN 15Z-21Z. EXPECT DURATION OF EVENT TO BE UNDER 12HRS WITH
BEST LIFT/MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE BY 06Z FRI.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER 5H VORT ROUNDS TROF BASED WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC
REFLECTION. THEREFORE WL MENTION CHC POPS MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW TROFS TO MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA ON FRI NITE AND SAT. HI PRESS
LOOKS TO BASICALLY AFFECT THE FA FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STILL AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR A COASTAL STORM ON NEXT MON THRU
TUE...BUT WE/LL HAVE TO SEE. HAVE KEPT POPS AOB SCHC THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HAVE LOADED IN THE LATEST HPC DEWPT/WIND
DATA...WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE EXISTING TEMP GRIDS BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME CLDS/-SHSN TO MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA FROM THE NORTH OVRNITE
TONITE. SFC WINDS ACRS THE FA TO REMAIN W-NW THRU EARLY ON WED.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...MURRAY
AVIATION...MURRAY








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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