Print

Print


Expires:200604012115;;628580
FPUS51 KBTV 010823
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SAT APR 1 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-012115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
322 AM EST SAT APR 1 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN 
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON. MIDDAY HIGHS 60 TO 65...THEN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO 
THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH... BECOMING 
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 20 TO 25. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 
MPH...BECOMING LIGHT. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN has been proposed for termination. NOAA's NWS will be accepting
comments on the proposed termination until January 31, 2006. Please learn
more about the termination and how to leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 010808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 AM EST SAT APR 1 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WIDELY VARYING TEMPERATURE
REGIME...AND DEGREE/STRENGTH OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
LATEST SYNOPTIC MAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH WV/IR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL
RADAR INDICATING POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS GREAT LAKES STATES THIS MORNING.
DECAYING PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OCCLUDING SFC LOW NEAR
GEORGIAN BAY EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FCST AREA IN A N/S
ORIENTATION ACROSS WRN VT AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE RUNNING OUT OF
SUPPORT...AND INTO VERY DRY AIRMASS EAST OF GREEN MTNS...THUS EXPECT
ANY ASSOC -SHRA ACTIVITY TO REMAIN LIGHT AT BEST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...MORE ENHANCED PCPN TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC STRONG SFC FRONT PUSH RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS AREA. EXCELLENT UPPER DIFFLUENCE/QG FORCING ASSOC W/THESE
FEATURES. PROGGED SFC TD VALUES INTO THE LOWER 50S AND AT LEAST SOME
MINIMAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
ALONG A NARROW PREFRONTAL AXIS FROM MAINLY DACKS EASTWARD FROM LATE
MORNING ON. DESPITE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES...LI VALUES
NEAR ZERO AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF WIND FIELD WOULD SUGGEST AT
POTENTIAL OF A LINE OR SEGMENTED LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHRAS AND SCT
TSRAS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
NONETHELESS...EXPECT ANY DAMAGING GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
OTHER PROBLEMATIC ISSUE TODAY IS TEMPERATURE REGIME. VALUES THIS
MORNING ALL OVER THE PLACE...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN FAVORED
WRN VT VLLYS...TO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VT. WITH SUCH A
WIDE RANGE OF VALUES...AND STRONG FRONT CROSSING AREA TODAY...ACTUAL
MAX READINGS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION QUITE TOUGH. WILL OPT WITH MAX
READINGS IN THE MORNING ACROSS NRN NY...AROUND MIDDAY WRN/CENTRAL
VT...AND MID AFTERNOON ERN VT...WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 60 TO
65 RANGE VT...AND 55 TO 60 NRN NY DUE TO EARLIER PASSAGE OF FRONT.
BEHIND SFC FRONT...TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE M-U 40S NRN NY LATER
TODAY...AND INTO THE 50S VT.

BY THIS EVENING PRIMARY SFC FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE WELL EAST OF FA.
TRAILING SECONDAY SFC BNDRY ASSOC W/PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY NRN AREAS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SCT
LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH NW FLOW SLOWLY WANING. BROAD
MERIDIONAL SFC/UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS AREA
DURING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH READINGS STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY APRIL.

NEXT CHC OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO AFFECT AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE VERY SIMILAR IN
ORIENTATION/APPEARANCE TO TODAYS SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL
STATES AND PUSHES QUICKLY NE INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ASSOC W/THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...AND WILL MAINTAIN PRIOR
FCSTRS IDEA OF CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BNDRY LYR TEMPS APPEAR MILD ENOUGH INITIALLY TO
PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF FROZEN PCPN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME W/PERIODIC EPISODES OF PCPN.
COOLER W/LINGERING -SHRAS/-SHSN TO AFFECT AREA TUE/WED...THEN DRY
AND SEASONABLY MILD THU/THU NT BEFORE ADDITIONAL ENERGY OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN AFFECTS REGION BY LATE WEEK TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF SHRA...SCT/LGT WITH PRE-FNTL TROF MVG ACRS VT FA THRU
12-14Z. SOME LLVL MOIST...LGT GRADIENT AND DRIER AIR BTWN TROF AND
SFC CD FNT ACCNTG FOR SOME LCLLY DENSE FOG AT KSLK AND LKLY TO CONT
TIL NXT ROUND OF PCPN. CD FNTL SHRA ENTERS WRN FA ARD 12Z...REACHING
CHMPL VLY 15-16Z AND CT RVR VLY BY 18Z AND LASTING 2-3 HRS. MVFR
CONDS DVLPG WITH PCPN AND CAA ACCOMPANYING WITH ANTHR BRF-SCT ROUND
OF SHRA WITH MID-LVL S/W IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ERLY AFTN IN NY AND
MID-LATE AFTN IN VT. GRDL DRIER AIR AND CLRG MVG INTO NY FA TOWARD
END OF FCST PERIOD.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW









FXUS61 KBTV 010337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EST FRI MAR 31 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
UPDATED ZONES SENT OUT WITH A FEW MINOR FIRST PERIOD
CHANGES...MAINLY TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. SHWRS ASSOCD
WITH PREFRONTAL TROF HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO ST LWR VLY AND
PORTIONS OF ADRNDKS...ALTHO THE AREA OF PCPN IS DECREASING A BIT
AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS. A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ACRS THE FA
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME AREAS ALREADY NEAR EXPECTED
LOWS...ESPECIALLY ERN VT AND PORTIONS OF ADRNDKS. HAVE BROADENED
RANGES IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 254 PM EST FRI MAR 31 2006/

SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS POTENT S/W ENERGY MOVES
ACRS THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS CUTOFF CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL 5H VORT
ROUNDING TROF BASE WL HELP TO ENHANCE SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS ACRS
OUR FA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FIRST...RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND
INITIAL 5H VORT IS NOW LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WL BE ACRS
OUR WESTERN CWA BTWN 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME -RW. THIS
ACTIVITY WL MV EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT RUNS INTO VERY DRY
LLVL AIRMASS.

SFC ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRES ACRS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH IS
PROVIDING CWA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS WELL IN
THE U60S TO M70S. SW SFC FLW CONTS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS IN THE L20S.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM FCST PROBLEM WL BE TEMPS/PRECIP TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
FROPA TIMING AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM ACRS OUR FA ON SATURDAY. INITIAL 5H VORT AND RIBBON OF MID
LVL MOISTURE/LIFT WL MV ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE CWA WITH
SOME -RW. VERY DRY AIRMASS IN LLVLS AND SW DOWNSLOPING FLW WL LIMIT
PRECIP ACRS THE CPV AND POINTS EASTWARD. WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT
POPS ACRS WESTERN FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WL HOLD IN THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 40S EXPECTED
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WHERE CLOUDS
WL TAKE THE LONGEST TO INCREASE.

SATURDAY...POTENT 5H VORT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND
STRONG SFC COLD FRNT WL SWEEP ACRS OUR CWA. NAM 12 CONTS TO SHOW SFC
TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH DWPTS IN THE 50S WHICH HELPS TO CREATE 400 TO
600 J/KG OF CAPE. HOWEVER...BASED ON CRNT DWPTS UPSTREAM AND THE
TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FEEL SFC DWPTS ARE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE NEXT QUESTION FOR CONVECTION WL BE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SFC HEATING...BUT GIVEN DRY SLOT ON CRNT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND
MODEL PROGGED MOISTURE FIELDS FEEL SOME SUN WL WARM TEMPS INTO THE
60S...ESPECIALLY ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC OF
THUNDER ACRS THIS AREA AND SLIGHT CHC FURTHER NORTH. SOUNDINGS AND
0-3KM/0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH GREATER THAN 30/40KTS RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...TTS ARE NEAR
50 AND LIS APPROACH -1 BY 18Z ACRS THE SOUTHERN CPV AND COOL POOL
ALOFT WL HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE. THEREFORE...THINK
MENTION OF TS WL BE WARRANTED AND SPC STILL HAS FA IN SEE TEXT FOR
DAY 2. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 8C WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS M/U 60S CPV TO
NEAR 60F SLV AND NORTHERN DACKS...WHERE FROPA WL BE EARLIER.

SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE ULVL PATTERN CONTS WITH S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED TROF LIFTING INTO EASTERN MAINE AND SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO OUR FA. WL MENTION MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U 50S. WEAK UPSLOPE FLW MAY
ENHANCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREEN MTNS.

MONDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FA FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH
SOME 7H OMEGA/FGEN FORCING FROM LLVL WAA...5H VORT...AND RRQ OF 25H
JET. MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LIFT/MOISTURE ACRS
OUR FA...WITH NAM ABOUT 6HRS FASTER THAN GFS. WL CONT WITH CRNT FCST
OF CHC WORDING IN THE MORNING AND LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTN FOR CPV
AND NORTHERN DACKS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH APPROACHING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND
BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. RW/SW MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE
ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC WRAP AROUND/UPSLOPE TYPE SNOWFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS
ALL CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

COOLEST BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -8 TO -10 RANGE. COOL AIR CONTINUES ON EAST
WITH THE LOW...AND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS WARM HEADING INTO
THURSDAY. LOW RH WILL INCREASE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECT
TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF FCST PERIOD ON FRIDAY.
INTRODUCED CHC POPS WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE ON
FRIDAY.

AVIATION
VFR CIGS AND VIS THRU THE PERIOD. FIRST 6-12 HRS OF PERIOD VFR
SKC...THEN HIGH CLDS INCREASE WITH APPROACHING LOW. PRECIP TONIGHT
WITH APPROACHING LOW TO BE IN TWO BANDS...A PREFRONTAL LINE OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING AT KMSS 03Z...AND ENDING AT KMPV 12Z. NEXT SHOT OF
RAIN ALONG THE FRONT...AGAIN WEST TO EAST STARTING AT KMSS 13Z...AND
CONTINUING AT KMPV THRU END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$










FXUS61 KBTV 311954 CCA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
254 PM EST FRI MAR 31 2006

CORRECTED AFD TO REMOVE MENTION OF RECORD AT MPV AS RECORDS SHOW MPV
WAS 82 DEGREES IN 1998.

CRNT TEMP OF 74F BREAKS RECORD OF 67F SET BACK IN 1982 AT MSS.

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS POTENT S/W ENERGY MOVES
ACRS THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS CUTOFF CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL 5H VORT
ROUNDING TROF BASE WL HELP TO ENHANCE SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS ACRS
OUR FA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FIRST...RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND
INITIAL 5H VORT IS NOW LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WL BE ACRS
OUR WESTERN CWA BTWN 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME -RW. THIS
ACTIVITY WL MV EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT RUNS INTO VERY DRY
LLVL AIRMASS.

SFC ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRES ACRS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH IS
PROVIDING CWA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS WELL IN
THE U60S TO M70S. SW SFC FLW CONTS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS IN THE L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM FCST PROBLEM WL BE TEMPS/PRECIP TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
FROPA TIMING AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM ACRS OUR FA ON SATURDAY. INITIAL 5H VORT AND RIBBON OF MID
LVL MOISTURE/LIFT WL MV ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE CWA WITH
SOME -RW. VERY DRY AIRMASS IN LLVLS AND SW DOWNSLOPING FLW WL LIMIT
PRECIP ACRS THE CPV AND POINTS EASTWARD. WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT
POPS ACRS WESTERN FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WL HOLD IN THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 40S EXPECTED
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WHERE CLOUDS
WL TAKE THE LONGEST TO INCREASE.

SATURDAY...POTENT 5H VORT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND
STRONG SFC COLD FRNT WL SWEEP ACRS OUR CWA. NAM 12 CONTS TO SHOW SFC
TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH DWPTS IN THE 50S WHICH HELPS TO CREATE 400 TO
600 J/KG OF CAPE. HOWEVER...BASED ON CRNT DWPTS UPSTREAM AND THE
TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FEEL SFC DWPTS ARE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE NEXT QUESTION FOR CONVECTION WL BE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SFC HEATING...BUT GIVEN DRY SLOT ON CRNT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND
MODEL PROGGED MOISTURE FIELDS FEEL SOME SUN WL WARM TEMPS INTO THE
60S...ESPECIALLY ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC OF
THUNDER ACRS THIS AREA AND SLIGHT CHC FURTHER NORTH. SOUNDINGS AND
0-3KM/0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH GREATER THAN 30/40KTS RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...TTS ARE NEAR
50 AND LIS APPROACH -1 BY 18Z ACRS THE SOUTHERN CPV AND COOL POOL
ALOFT WL HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE. THEREFORE...THINK
MENTION OF TS WL BE WARRANTED AND SPC STILL HAS FA IN SEE TEXT FOR
DAY 2. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 8C WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS M/U 60S CPV TO
NEAR 60F SLV AND NORTHERN DACKS...WHERE FROPA WL BE EARLIER.

SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE ULVL PATTERN CONTS WITH S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED TROF LIFTING INTO EASTERN MAINE AND SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO OUR FA. WL MENTION MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U 50S. WEAK UPSLOPE FLW MAY
ENHANCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREEN MTNS.

MONDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FA FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH
SOME 7H OMEGA/FGEN FORCING FROM LLVL WAA...5H VORT...AND RRQ OF 25H
JET. MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LIFT/MOISTURE ACRS
OUR FA...WITH NAM ABOUT 6HRS FASTER THAN GFS. WL CONT WITH CRNT FCST
OF CHC WORDING IN THE MORNING AND LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTN FOR CPV
AND NORTHERN DACKS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH APPROACHING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND
BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. RW/SW MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE
ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC WRAP AROUND/UPSLOPE TYPE SNOWFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS
ALL CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

COOLEST BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -8 TO -10 RANGE. COOL AIR CONTINUES ON EAST
WITH THE LOW...AND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS WARM HEADING INTO
THURSDAY. LOW RH WILL INCREASE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECT
TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF FCST PERIOD ON FRIDAY.
INTRODUCED CHC POPS WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION
VFR CIGS AND VIS THRU THE PERIOD. FIRST 6-12 HRS OF PERIOD VFR
SKC...THEN HIGH CLDS INCREASE WITH APPROACHING LOW. PRECIP TONIGHT
WITH APPROACHING LOW TO BE IN TWO BANDS...A PREFRONTAL LINE OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING AT KMSS 03Z...AND ENDING AT KMPV 12Z. NEXT SHOT OF
RAIN ALONG THE FRONT...AGAIN WEST TO EAST STARTING AT KMSS 13Z...AND
CONTINUING AT KMPV THRU END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON











FXUS61 KBTV 311904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
204 PM EST FRI MAR 31 2006

CRNT TEMP OF 72F BREAKS RECORD OF 67F SET BACK IN 1982 AT MSS. IN
ADDITION...MPV TEMP OF 72F BREAKS PREVIOUS HIGH RECORD OF 68F.
RERBTV WL BE SENT LATER THIS AFTN WHEN TEMPS START FALLING.

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS POTENT S/W ENERGY MOVES
ACRS THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS CUTOFF CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL 5H VORT
ROUNDING TROF BASE WL HELP TO ENHANCE SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS ACRS
OUR FA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FIRST...RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND
INITIAL 5H VORT IS NOW LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WL BE ACRS
OUR WESTERN CWA BTWN 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME -RW. THIS
ACTIVITY WL MV EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT RUNS INTO VERY DRY
LLVL AIRMASS.

SFC ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRES ACRS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH IS
PROVIDING CWA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS WELL IN
THE U60S TO M70S. SW SFC FLW CONTS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS IN THE L20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM FCST PROBLEM WL BE TEMPS/PRECIP TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
FROPA TIMING AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM ACRS OUR FA ON SATURDAY. INITIAL 5H VORT AND RIBBON OF MID
LVL MOISTURE/LIFT WL MV ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE CWA WITH
SOME -RW. VERY DRY AIRMASS IN LLVLS AND SW DOWNSLOPING FLW WL LIMIT
PRECIP ACRS THE CPV AND POINTS EASTWARD. WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT
POPS ACRS WESTERN FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WL HOLD IN THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 40S EXPECTED
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS...WHERE CLOUDS
WL TAKE THE LONGEST TO INCREASE.

SATURDAY...POTENT 5H VORT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND
STRONG SFC COLD FRNT WL SWEEP ACRS OUR CWA. NAM 12 CONTS TO SHOW SFC
TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH DWPTS IN THE 50S WHICH HELPS TO CREATE 400 TO
600 J/KG OF CAPE. HOWEVER...BASED ON CRNT DWPTS UPSTREAM AND THE
TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FEEL SFC DWPTS ARE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. THE NEXT QUESTION FOR CONVECTION WL BE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND SFC HEATING...BUT GIVEN DRY SLOT ON CRNT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND
MODEL PROGGED MOISTURE FIELDS FEEL SOME SUN WL WARM TEMPS INTO THE
60S...ESPECIALLY ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC OF
THUNDER ACRS THIS AREA AND SLIGHT CHC FURTHER NORTH. SOUNDINGS AND
0-3KM/0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH GREATER THAN 30/40KTS RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...TTS ARE NEAR
50 AND LIS APPROACH -1 BY 18Z ACRS THE SOUTHERN CPV AND COOL POOL
ALOFT WL HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE. THEREFORE...THINK
MENTION OF TS WL BE WARRANTED AND SPC STILL HAS FA IN SEE TEXT FOR
DAY 2. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 8C WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS M/U 60S CPV TO
NEAR 60F SLV AND NORTHERN DACKS...WHERE FROPA WL BE EARLIER.

SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE ULVL PATTERN CONTS WITH S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED TROF LIFTING INTO EASTERN MAINE AND SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING INTO OUR FA. WL MENTION MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE M/U 50S. WEAK UPSLOPE FLW MAY
ENHANCE SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREEN MTNS.

MONDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FA FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH
SOME 7H OMEGA/FGEN FORCING FROM LLVL WAA...5H VORT...AND RRQ OF 25H
JET. MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LIFT/MOISTURE ACRS
OUR FA...WITH NAM ABOUT 6HRS FASTER THAN GFS. WL CONT WITH CRNT FCST
OF CHC WORDING IN THE MORNING AND LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTN FOR CPV
AND NORTHERN DACKS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH APPROACHING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT...THEN LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND
BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. RW/SW MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE
ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC WRAP AROUND/UPSLOPE TYPE SNOWFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS
ALL CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

COOLEST BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -8 TO -10 RANGE. COOL AIR CONTINUES ON EAST
WITH THE LOW...AND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS WARM HEADING INTO
THURSDAY. LOW RH WILL INCREASE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECT
TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY END OF FCST PERIOD ON FRIDAY.
INTRODUCED CHC POPS WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION
VFR CIGS AND VIS THRU THE PERIOD. FIRST 6-12 HRS OF PERIOD VFR
SKC...THEN HIGH CLDS INCREASE WITH APPROACHING LOW. PRECIP TONIGHT
WITH APPROACHING LOW TO BE IN TWO BANDS...A PREFRONTAL LINE OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING AT KMSS 03Z...AND ENDING AT KMPV 12Z. NEXT SHOT OF
RAIN ALONG THE FRONT...AGAIN WEST TO EAST STARTING AT KMSS 13Z...AND
CONTINUING AT KMPV THRU END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html