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Executive Summary: Rain develops across NY and New England on Monday night 
and becomes heavy at times on Monday morning.  Rain will change to snow 
throughout the day from the top down (higher elevations to lower 
elevations) and eventually changes to all snow in the lowest elevations of 
the north country on Tuesday night.  Steady snow on Tuesday night will 
transition to snow showers during the day on Wednesday.  Significant 
amounts of precipitation will fall along with gusty winds at times will 
produce hazardous conditions in the higher terrain on Tuesday and 
Wednesday.

Support for a late season elevation dependent winter storm continues to 
grow and while I feel fairly confident in what will happen on Tuesday into 
Wednesday, no final forecast will be issued until tomorrow.  The 
accumulations I list below will be updated tomorrow afternoon and I will 
get specific with timing of change over from rain to snow.  There will be 
a period of moderate to heavy rainfall followed by a prolonged period of 
heavy, wet snow.  Total precipitation amounts are very high and this could 
be one of the heaviest precip events the North Country has seen in a 
while.  Total QPF looks to be in the 1-3" range.  Wouldn't it be fitting 
if the most widespread mountain snowfall of the season since October, 
happened in April?

Winter Storm Watches should be posted tonight by BTV for the mountain 
zones.

This will be a significant snowfall (6-12") for elevations above 2,000ft 
and a moderate snowfall (4-8") for elevations between 1K-2K feet and a 
light snowfall (1-4") below 1,000ft...across the Adirondacks, Greens and 
White Mtns.  The mountain summits and highest elevations of the Whites, 
Greens, and eastern Adirondacks could see one to one and a half feet of 
dense snow.  Three to six inches may also fall across the Berkshires above 
1,500ft, mostly in the Mt. Graylock/RT 2/North Adams area...and one to 
three inches in the northern and eastern Catskills.

Update tomorrow.

-Scott



   

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