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FPUS51 KBTV 031030 AAA
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018-032100-
UPDATED
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
630 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 2006

.TODAY...CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL RAIN. HIGHS IN THE 60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 
15 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. LIGHT WINDS.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S.

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 030658
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
258 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
SFC LOW TO MOVE UP INTO SRN NEW ENG TODAY AND TONITE...THEN TO THE
EAST OF NEW ENG ON SUN/SUN NITE. AN UPR TROF TO AFFECT THE FA LATE
TONITE THRU SUN NITE...THEN START TO MOVE TO THE SW OF THE FA ON MON.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE WITH A
SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M50S-L70S TODAY WITH N-NE
SFC WINDS AT 5-10G25KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS
TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. LOW-LVL MSTR TO
INCREASE ACRS THE FA FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. CAPES ACRS THE FA TODAY
LOOK TO BE AOB 100 J/KG. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA TODAY LOOK TO BE
0.7-1.5". RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES TODAY ACRS THE FA WITH PLENTY OF PCPN
ACRS MUCH OF THE FA /EXCEPT ACRS THE ST LAW VLY?/ BY LATER THIS
MORNING.

WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THRU MON. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR
ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY TONITE. LOW-LVL MSTR TO
LINGER ACRS THE FA TONITE AND THRU MUCH OF SUN THRU MON. GOOD MID-LVL
MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY THRU SUN...WITH SOME LINGERING MID-LVL
MSTR ACRS THE FA ON SUN NITE AND MON. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO
BE AROUND AN INCH TONITE AND ON SUN...AND AROUND 0.75" ON SUN NITE.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME PCPN MOVING UP ACRS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SRN FA FROM THE SW ATTM. THIS PCPN SHIELD EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE FA /EXCEPT MAYBE PORTIONS OF THE ST LAW VLY/ TODAY AND
INTO TONITE. WILL CONT TO TAPER POPS OFF FROM SE /HIGHEST/ TO NW
/LOWEST/ ACRS THE FA INTO SUN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PCPN SHIELD FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER INCREASES
IN POPS INTO SUN. SOME LINGERING -SHRA STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE ACRS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA ON SUN NITE AND MON...BUT DIFFERED TO
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND KEPT THAT PART OF THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE L-M60S ON SUN. LIMITED MESONET
DATA AVAILABLE AGAIN FOR THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO SOME CONTINUED
APPARENT LDAD PROBLEMS HERE AT BTV.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW.

PRELIM WRK ZONES AND ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY 4 AM.

.AVIATION...
AVIATION WX AT TAF SITES IS COMPLICATED BY AXIS OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING FROM
WSW-ENE. NARROW BAND OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY EVIDENT IN MOSAIC 88D
IMAGERY AT 0620Z FROM KROC-20S KMSS-10S KBTV-KBML RESULTING FROM
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING.  THE MESOSCALE FORCING /AND GENERAL LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH/ IS RESULTING IN -RA ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AT 06Z GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KSLK-KBTV-KMPV.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE NRN FRINGE OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND PCPN SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING OCCURS 12Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN...AFTER
WHICH TIME THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE NEAR OR SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND. STAGNANT MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ORIENTED E-W ACROSS
FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD
06Z SUN.

IN THE TAFS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS LIKELY AT KBTV AND KMPV...
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN NARROW FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AXIS. PREVAILING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT 06Z SHOULD LOWER BY LATE
MORNING CLOSER TO OVC040. BELIEVE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS 020-030 AND VSBY 3-4SM. AT KSLK AND
KMSS...HAVE INTRODUCED PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY AFTN AT THOSE
LOCATIONS AS WELL.

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KTS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SEA-LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
REMAINING NLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VLY...AND NELY/ENELY AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES. ST. LAWRENCE VLY WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST AOA 20 KTS AFTER 20Z
THRU END OF TAF PERIOD.

.HYDROLOGY...
BLW 1.75" OF QPF EXPECTED ACRS THE FA /HIGHEST ACRS SE VT/ THRU 00Z
MON. NONE OF THIS PCPN SHOULD COME DOWN TOO HEAVY THOUGH...SO AREA
WATERWAYS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB THIS RAINFALL OK. THE LATEST RIVER
FCSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TOO LOW THOUGH. THE BTV AHPS PAGES MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME OUTAGES OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO CONTINUED LDAD
PROBLEMS HERE AT BTV.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...MURRAY
AVIATION...BANACOS





FXUS61 KBTV 030203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...WHILE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE REGION. RADAR
SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT NOTHING REACHING THE SURFACE AS AIRMASS STILL
FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING MORE RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS
TIME MOVING NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST BRING RAIN INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD.
THUS...NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUSLY ISSUED ZONE FORECASTS WILL BE
NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 308 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP TO BACK UPPER FLOW
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASE DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.  THE BACKED
UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD NORTHEAST AND IMPACT THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.
MAIN FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND ENHANCES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  AGAIN THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
IN FACT...THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS EVENT AS IT WILL BE REMOVED FROM BEST
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.  HAVE BROKEN UP THE ZONES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION.  FEEL
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.  LOOKING AT THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINING
NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WITH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WELL SOUTH AND SURFACE LOW/FRONT TO THE EAST...FEEL LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.  THUS WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS STILL KEEP STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER THE NE FOR TUES INTO WED.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT SL CHANCE POPS FOR -RW FOR THESE TWO DAYS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND INFLUX OF WARM SW AIR. CURRENTLY HAVE MENTIONED
IN FORECASTED AND WILL KEEP IN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON
CONSISTENCY OVER PAST FEW DAYS OF RIDGE POSITIONING. THE RIDGE HAS
BEEN SHIFTED NORTH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
SE COAST. ON WED...NEARLY CUTOFF UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE
APPALACHAINS...PUSHING NORTH LATE WED INTO THURS. THIS WILL KEEP
MAJOR INFLUENCE FROM COASTAL SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE CWA AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY AS
IT PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO REGION. ANOTHER SFC LOW DIVING SE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GREAT LKS REGION WED NGT/THURS MORN WILL LIFT
INTO AREA...ENHANCING PRECIP OVER FA ON THURS INTO FRI...BFR LIFTING
NORTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY. WILL FOLLOW TREND OF CURRENT MDL GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS...SHOWING THEM DECR THURS AND FRI BASED ON INCR CLD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES.

AVIATION...
COND AT ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THRU 00Z W/ LGT NNW WINDS AND
CEILINGS BKN MID. AFT 00Z AS SYSTEM MVS UP ALONG FRNT...-RW WILL
INCR...BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR W/ SOME IFR AT TIMES W/ VSBY
DOWN TO LESS THAN 3SM IN RAIN/FG...OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL MAIN
FACTOR FOR DECR TO MVFR COND. AFT 12Z THRU 18Z...COND WILL IMPROVE
FROM W TO E AS PRECIP SLIDES EAST OF FA. STILL EXPECTED PRECIP TO
LINGER...ESPECIALLY IN VT...W/ WINDS BECM LGT OUT OF NNE LESS THAN
10 KTS FROM LGT/VAR FROM 00Z-12Z. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD THRU MUCH
OF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH











FXUS61 KBTV 021909
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP TO BACK UPPER FLOW
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS INCREASE DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.  THE BACKED
UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD NORTHEAST AND IMPACT THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.
MAIN FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND ENHANCES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  AGAIN THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
IN FACT...THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS EVENT AS IT WILL BE REMOVED FROM BEST
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.  HAVE BROKEN UP THE ZONES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION.  FEEL
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.  LOOKING AT THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINING
NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WITH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WELL SOUTH AND SURFACE LOW/FRONT TO THE EAST...FEEL LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.  THUS WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MDLS STILL KEEP STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER THE NE FOR TUES INTO WED.
GUIDANCE HINTING AT SL CHANCE POPS FOR -RW FOR THESE TWO DAYS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND INFLUX OF WARM SW AIR. CURRENTLY HAVE MENTIONED
IN FORECASTED AND WILL KEEP IN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON
CONSISTENCY OVER PAST FEW DAYS OF RIDGE POSITIONING. THE RIDGE HAS
BEEN SHIFTED NORTH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
SE COAST. ON WED...NEARLY CUTOFF UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE
APPALACHAINS...PUSHING NORTH LATE WED INTO THURS. THIS WILL KEEP
MAJOR INFLUENCE FROM COASTAL SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE CWA AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY AS
IT PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO REGION. ANOTHER SFC LOW DIVING SE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GREAT LKS REGION WED NGT/THURS MORN WILL LIFT
INTO AREA...ENHANCING PRECIP OVER FA ON THURS INTO FRI...BFR LIFTING
NORTH OF CWA BY MIDDAY. WILL FOLLOW TREND OF CURRENT MDL GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS...SHOWING THEM DECR THURS AND FRI BASED ON INCR CLD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
COND AT ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THRU 00Z W/ LGT NNW WINDS AND
CEILINGS BKN MID. AFT 00Z AS SYSTEM MVS UP ALONG FRNT...-RW WILL
INCR...BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR W/ SOME IFR AT TIMES W/ VSBY
DOWN TO LESS THAN 3SM IN RAIN/FG...OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL MAIN
FACTOR FOR DECR TO MVFR COND. AFT 12Z THRU 18Z...COND WILL IMPROVE
FROM W TO E AS PRECIP SLIDES EAST OF FA. STILL EXPECTED PRECIP TO
LINGER...ESPECIALLY IN VT...W/ WINDS BECM LGT OUT OF NNE LESS THAN
10 KTS FROM LGT/VAR FROM 00Z-12Z. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD THRU MUCH
OF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JN









   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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References

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