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Expires:200606052115;;221155
FPUS51 KBTV 050726
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EDT MON JUN 5 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018-052115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...
BRISTOL...RIPTON
325 AM EDT MON JUN 5 2006

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS 
MORNING. PATCHY FOG UNTIL MID MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY LATER 
IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WIND 
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 050719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EDT MON JUN 5 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS RIGHT OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  SINCE THE
DEFORMATION AXIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING.
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DISSIPATING AS WELL OVER MOST OF THE
AREA BECAUSE OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS.  WHEN THE LARGER SCALE CLOUD
SHIELD BEGINS TO ERODE...CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN DUE TO STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SHOULD SEE MORE NOTICEABLE CLEARING TONIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY NOT HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SOME
STRATOCUMULUS FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. NOTICED SOME WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES RIDE UP AND OVER
THE RIDGE AND DROP INTO OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE WERE IN THE MID 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET INTO THIS AIR
MASS ON TUESDAY.  SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS OCCURS AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.  WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE UPPER LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL TREND IS FOR
REGION TO GET BACK INTO A PATTERN THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HAVING
THE REGION IN A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH.  THUS GOING FORECAST OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD BEFORE A
DRYING TREND DEVELOPS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
COND THRU 10Z-11Z WILL RANGE FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES DUE TO
FG...-RW AND LWR CEILINGS. WINDS LGT/VAR DURING THIS TIME. AFT
10Z-11Z VFR COND WITH SCT-BKN LOW/MID DECK...W/ POSSIBLE SPRINKLE.
WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AND VAR FROM W THRU N. AFT 00Z WINDS GO
LGT/VAR VFR COND MAINLY W/ SCT LOW CLD DECK...GOING DOWN TO IFR AT
TIMES DUE TO VSBY LWRD BY FG AT TIMES. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JN





FXUS61 KBTV 050219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
AND COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT
...AS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLOUDS MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH NO SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF CLEARING FROM QUEBEC. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM BOTH THE KCXX
AND KTYX RADARS SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH
IS HELPING TO KEEP THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW. GIVEN MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...HAVE RAISED THE MIN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS HAVE
ALSO BECOME EITHER CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION...SO
WILL UPDATE THE OVERNIGHT WIND FORECAST AS WELL. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AND COME TO AN END BY 06Z. CEILINGS WILL RISE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS
AT TIMES THRU 14Z. SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL 06Z. VAD
WIND PROFILES FROM BOTH THE KCXX AND KTYX RADARS SHOWING NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...AS 18Z TAFS HAD INDICATED. DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION...EXPECTING BROKEN LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 202 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT PIX DEPICTS OUR CRNT/FUTURE SCENARIO...THAT SFC LOW CONTS TO LIFT
NE ACRS GULF OF ME AND AWAY FM ULVL SYSTEM THAT IS SHIFTING S WITH
TIME. THIS DISCONNECT IS SHOWN BY STRETCHING IN THE ATMOS AND NO
MOISTURE FEEDING INTO UPR LOW. ALSO...ALG CNDN/US BDR...SKC AND
DRIER AIR WITH TD IN 40S ASSOC WITH A WEAK SFC HI.

THEREFORE...GRDL CLRG XPCTD TNGT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO FA.
INITIAL GRADIENT SLACKENS...ALBEIT NOT THE BEST FOR PTCHY FOG...ITS
BEEN MORE THE RULE THAN NOT THIS SPRING AND WL MNTN IT.

H5 LOW AND TROF WL CONT TO SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE S WITH SOME RIDGING
ACRS WRN GRT LAKES ELONGATING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES BY
TUE/TUE NGT BFR SRN CLOSED LOW SLOWLY RETURNS OFFSHORE OF ERN SEABOARD
ON WED. NAM SLIGHTLY FASTER (FURTHER N) THAN GFS BY 00Z WED...BUT GFS
HAS HNDLD CLOSED AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED E COAST SYSTEMS THIS SPRING
MUCH BETTER...THUS LEANING ON GFS.

ON MON...TROF AXIS STL IN VCNTY WITH SOME SS...DAYTIME HEATING
AND LLVL MOIST PRODUCING SOME UNSTABLE LLVL LAPSE RATES BUT CAPPED
ARD 7K FOR JUST SOME CLDS. THEN ABV MNTD RIDGING WL ALLOW FOR SS...
DRY...MILD TUE WITH MORE OF THE SAME WED AS SRN SYSTEM SHLD STAY S
WITH PERHAPS WEAK TROFFING ACRS FA WED TO BRG A CHC OF INSTABILITY
-SHRA/-TSRA BUT FOR NOW WL LEAVE IT AS A SLGT CHC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH MOVEMENT OF
INITIAL CLOSED 5H LOW AND INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA. ENSEMBLES AND LATEST 12Z GFS/CANADIAN SUPPORTS
A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH FIRST 5H CIRCULATION PASSING
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FA ON THURS AS UPSTREAM ENERGY PUSHES SYSTEM
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...THIS STRONG 5H PVA...COMBINED
WITH SOME SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY...WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH
SCATTERED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...MORE ENERGY SLIDES ACRS
OUR CWA ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT AND WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC POPS. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AND SHOULD DECREASE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS AND ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WITH TROF AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP WL BE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THRU NEXT SUNDAY. ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW A
MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH MAJOR TROF AMPLIFICATION ALONG
THE EAST COAST LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. THIS WOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE LOGICAL ANSWER GIVEN THE PAST MONTH
AND ALL THE RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED...BUT STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...
AVIATION CHALLENGE IS FCSTING THE CLRING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR
TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. LATEST VIS SATL PICS SHOW BACK
EDGE OF CLOUDS ACRS SLV...BUT THIS CLRING HAS MOVED LITTLE
TODAY...DUE TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND MOIST NE FLW. FEEL BOTH
GFS/NAM ARE TOO QUICK IN DISSIPATING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ACRS OUR CWA
THIS AFTN/EVENING...THEREFORE WL TREND SLOWER WITH CLRING. CRNT
THINKING WOULD HAVE SCATTERED DECK AROUND 040KFT IN BTV BY 04Z AND
MPV NOT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY...BUT SLK/MSS WL SEE CLRING BTWN 22-02Z.
FEEL WITH UPSTREAM SFC DWPTS IN THE 20S/30S...VERY DRY LOW LEVELS IN
THE SOUNDINGS...AND CLOUDS ACRS MPV OVERNIGHT FOG WL NOT DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH










FXUS61 KBTV 041802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
202 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT PIX DEPICTS OUR CRNT/FUTURE SCENARIO...THAT SFC LOW CONTS TO LIFT
NE ACRS GULF OF ME AND AWAY FM ULVL SYSTEM THAT IS SHIFTING S WITH
TIME. THIS DISCONNECT IS SHOWN BY STRETCHING IN THE ATMOS AND NO
MOISTURE FEEDING INTO UPR LOW. ALSO...ALG CNDN/US BDR...SKC AND
DRIER AIR WITH TD IN 40S ASSOC WITH A WEAK SFC HI.

THEREFORE...GRDL CLRG XPCTD TNGT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO FA.
INITIAL GRADIENT SLACKENS...ALBEIT NOT THE BEST FOR PTCHY FOG...ITS
BEEN MORE THE RULE THAN NOT THIS SPRING AND WL MNTN IT.

H5 LOW AND TROF WL CONT TO SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE S WITH SOME RIDGING
ACRS WRN GRT LAKES ELONGATING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES BY
TUE/TUE NGT BFR SRN CLOSED LOW SLOWLY RETURNS OFFSHORE OF ERN SEABOARD
ON WED. NAM SLIGHTLY FASTER (FURTHER N) THAN GFS BY 00Z WED...BUT GFS
HAS HNDLD CLOSED AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED E COAST SYSTEMS THIS SPRING
MUCH BETTER...THUS LEANING ON GFS.

ON MON...TROF AXIS STL IN VCNTY WITH SOME SS...DAYTIME HEATING
AND LLVL MOIST PRODUCING SOME UNSTABLE LLVL LAPSE RATES BUT CAPPED
ARD 7K FOR JUST SOME CLDS. THEN ABV MNTD RIDGING WL ALLOW FOR SS...
DRY...MILD TUE WITH MORE OF THE SAME WED AS SRN SYSTEM SHLD STAY S
WITH PERHAPS WEAK TROFFING ACRS FA WED TO BRG A CHC OF INSTABILITY
-SHRA/-TSRA BUT FOR NOW WL LEAVE IT AS A SLGT CHC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH MOVEMENT OF
INITIAL CLOSED 5H LOW AND INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA. ENSEMBLES AND LATEST 12Z GFS/CANADIAN SUPPORTS
A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH FIRST 5H CIRCULATION PASSING
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FA ON THURS AS UPSTREAM ENERGY PUSHES SYSTEM
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...THIS STRONG 5H PVA...COMBINED
WITH SOME SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY...WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH
SCATTERED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...MORE ENERGY SLIDES ACRS
OUR CWA ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT AND WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC POPS. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AND SHOULD DECREASE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS AND ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WITH TROF AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP WL BE AT
OR BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THRU NEXT SUNDAY. ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW A
MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH MAJOR TROF AMPLIFICATION ALONG
THE EAST COAST LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. THIS WOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE LOGICAL ANSWER GIVEN THE PAST MONTH
AND ALL THE RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED...BUT STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION CHALLENGE IS FCSTING THE CLRING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR
TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. LATEST VIS SATL PICS SHOW BACK
EDGE OF CLOUDS ACRS SLV...BUT THIS CLRING HAS MOVED LITTLE
TODAY...DUE TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND MOIST NE FLW. FEEL BOTH
GFS/NAM ARE TOO QUICK IN DISSIPATING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ACRS OUR CWA
THIS AFTN/EVENING...THEREFORE WL TREND SLOWER WITH CLRING. CRNT
THINKING WOULD HAVE SCATTERED DECK AROUND 040KFT IN BTV BY 04Z AND
MPV NOT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY...BUT SLK/MSS WL SEE CLRING BTWN 22-02Z.
FEEL WITH UPSTREAM SFC DWPTS IN THE 20S/30S...VERY DRY LOW LEVELS IN
THE SOUNDINGS...AND CLOUDS ACRS MPV OVERNIGHT FOG WL NOT DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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References

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