Print

Print


Expires:200606012100;;123903
FPUS51 KBTV 010750
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT THU JUN 1 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-012100-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
350 AM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE 50S. LIGHT WINDS.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

NOAA's NWS will be accepting comments on proposed IWIN replacement pages
until April 30, 2006. Please learn more about the replacement and how to
leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 010727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
CF TO MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA FROM THE NW TODAY AND TONITE. WAVE OF LOW
PRESS TO RIDE UP ALONG THIS FRONT AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ON
FRI/FRI NITE.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THRU FRI NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR TO
CONT TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY...WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR LINGERING ACRS
THE FA THRU FRI NITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND
MUCH OF THE FA /ESPECIALLY SRN VT/ TONITE THRU FRI NITE. PW VALUES
ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 1.5-1.75" TODAY...1-1.5" TONITE...AND AROUND
AN INCH ON FRI/FRI NITE. NAM SHOWS CAPES ACRS THE FA OF AOB 1000 J/KG
TODAY...AOB 400 J/KG TONITE...AOB 700 J/KG ON FRI...AND BLW 300 J/KG
ON FRI NITE.

ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA FOR THE REST OF TODAY APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST
MODERATELY SHEARED WITH WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF AROUND 10.0 KFT. LACK OF
STRONG INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF CLD COVER ACRS THE FA LOOKS TO LIMIT
THE POTNL FOR ANY SVR WX ACRS THE FA TODAY. HI PW VALUES THOUGH
SHOULD YIELD SOME DECENT RAINFALL RATES IN ANY +TSRA ACRS THE FA
TODAY...AND ENHANCED WORDING TO THIS AFFECT WILL BE ADDED TO THE FCST
FOR TODAY ACRS THE FA.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION MOVING ACRS THE FA FROM
THE WEST ATTM. HAVE HUNG ONTO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FA FOR TODAY AND
INTO TONITE. BEST CHC FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN ON FRI/FRI NITE STILL
LOOKS TO BE ACRS SE VT...WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED AS WELL.
HAVE TAPERED POPS OFF ACRS THE REST OF THE NRN FA FOR THEN FOR NOW.
T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M-U70S TODAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON FRI.
T1MIN TEMPS ARE BASICALLY IN THE 50S TONITE AND ON FRI NITE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 AM.

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SRN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH SWD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THRU 00Z FRIDAY. ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS VCNTY OF THE FRONT. ALSO...00Z NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN MINIMAL CAPE THRU 00Z FRIDAY...AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
HAVE LEFT OUT OF AREA TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL COVERAGE/LOCATION CAN BE
BETTER DISCERNED. NR SATURATED PBL AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO OCCASIONAL MVFR SFC VSBY...AT LEAST UNTIL SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL DRYING CAN OCCUR /LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY/. IN
REGARD TO WINDS...LGT SLY OR VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SWITCH TO NLY WITH FROPA AROUND 12Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS AND
HEAVIER SHOWERS.

.HYDROLOGY...
YESTERDAY/S 1-HR FFG VALUES ACRS MUCH OF THE FA LOOKED TO BE 1.5-3".
PORTIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE NE KINGDOM WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF +RA TODAY...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ACRS A WIDE ENUFF AREA TO ISSUE AN
FFA ATTM. LATER SHIFTS CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT. BEST
DYNAMIX FOR ANY STEADIER +RA LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FA BY
THE BEGINNING OF WEEKEND.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...MURRAY
AVIATION...BANACOS





FXUS61 KBTV 010149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DIMINISHED
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP STILL SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER AT THIS TIME MOVING EASTWARD...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE
TO REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER POPS TO 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT...AS
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. SOME
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY. WILL ALSO LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE THINKING.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 338 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONGER LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK THAT HAS COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO ORGANIZED STORMS
HAS BEEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND INCREASES
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. THIS IDEA CONSISTENT WITH THINKING FROM
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS. COMPOSITE CHART SUGGESTS
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT PUSHES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHOULD LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...LOOKING FOR LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. UPPER TROUGH TO
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT.
THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY GIVEN LINGERING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MDL RUNS HAVE SHUNTED BULK OF HEAVIEST PRECIP W/ LOW ALONG
FRNT TO OUR EAST...BRINGING IT INTO EASTERN MAINE LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY. SYSTEM STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO FA THE WRAP-AROUND CLDS/PRECIP
WILL AFFECT REGION SUN MORN...MDL GUIDANCE THOUGH CARRYING PRECIP A
BIT TOO FAR WEST INTO CVLY...BUT THINKING SYSTEM SYSTEM WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT E VT..ESPECIALLY NE VT WILL SEE ANY OF THIS...SO
WILL TRANSITION POPS AS SUCH. ANOTHER STRONG SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF
THE EAST COAST SUN NGT REMAINING THRU TUES. THIS WILL ALLOW
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE SW FLOW TO WORK INTO CWA. INCR TEMPS SUN THRU
TUES IN MDL GUIDANCE WARRANTED AS TEMPS WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME
AS SW FLOW BECMS MORE PREVALENT...SO WILL KEEP THIS TREND. AS A
RESULT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...WILL PUT
IN SL CHANCE FOR -RW FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN ZONES MON/TUES...MAINLY
DURINGMID MORN/LATE AFTNOON HRS. TUES NGT INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW
OVER GREAT LKS WILL LIFT FRNT TOWARDS CWA...ALONG W/ FRNT ALONG S
QUEBEC BORDER. WILL SHOW INCR CLD AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

AVIATION...
COND AT ALL SITES WILL VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR COND AT TIMES.
THRU 00Z...TRW/RW ACROSS THE REGION...W/ SOME TS CONTAINING +RW AT
TIMES. THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THRU 00Z. FRNT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL PUSH THRU CWA AFT 03Z-05Z. HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM
06Z-10Z W/ SOME -TRW...WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. WINDS SSW TDY
BECMG LGT/VAR AFT 00Z-02Z...THEN SLOWLY BECMG LGT FROM THE N AS
FRNT PASSES AREA FROM 12Z THRU 18Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH










FXUS61 KBTV 311938
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
338 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONGER LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK THAT HAS COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO ORGANIZED STORMS
HAS BEEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND INCREASES
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. THIS IDEA CONSISTENT WITH THINKING FROM
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CATEGORICAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS. COMPOSITE CHART SUGGESTS
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT PUSHES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHOULD LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...LOOKING FOR LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. UPPER TROUGH TO
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT.
THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY GIVEN LINGERING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MDL RUNS HAVE SHUNTED BULK OF HEAVIEST PRECIP W/ LOW ALONG
FRNT TO OUR EAST...BRINGING IT INTO EASTERN MAINE LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY. SYSTEM STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO FA THE WRAP-AROUND CLDS/PRECIP
WILL AFFECT REGION SUN MORN...MDL GUIDANCE THOUGH CARRYING PRECIP A
BIT TOO FAR WEST INTO CVLY...BUT THINKING SYSTEM SYSTEM WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT E VT..ESPECIALLY NE VT WILL SEE ANY OF THIS...SO
WILL TRANSITION POPS AS SUCH. ANOTHER STRONG SFC RIDGE SETS UP OFF
THE EAST COAST SUN NGT REMAINING THRU TUES. THIS WILL ALLOW
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE SW FLOW TO WORK INTO CWA. INCR TEMPS SUN THRU
TUES IN MDL GUIDANCE WARRANTED AS TEMPS WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME
AS SW FLOW BECMS MORE PREVALENT...SO WILL KEEP THIS TREND. AS A
RESULT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...WILL PUT
IN SL CHANCE FOR -RW FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN ZONES MON/TUES...MAINLY
DURINGMID MORN/LATE AFTNOON HRS. TUES NGT INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW
OVER GREAT LKS WILL LIFT FRNT TOWARDS CWA...ALONG W/ FRNT ALONG S
QUEBEC BORDER. WILL SHOW INCR CLD AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...
COND AT ALL SITES WILL VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR COND AT TIMES.
THRU 00Z...TRW/RW ACROSS THE REGION...W/ SOME TS CONTAINING +RW AT
TIMES. THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THRU 00Z. FRNT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL PUSH THRU CWA AFT 03Z-05Z. HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM
06Z-10Z W/ SOME -TRW...WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. WINDS SSW TDY
BECMG LGT/VAR AFT 00Z-02Z...THEN SLOWLY BECMG LGT FROM THE N AS
FRNT PASSES AREA FROM 12Z THRU 18Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JN




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html