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Expires:200606192115;;566718
FPUS51 KBTV 190724
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-192115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
325 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS 
EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 
60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 190908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLR ACRS FA EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN UNDER
INFLUENCE OF H5 RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVG EAST OF FA THIS
MORNING HOWEVER. LATEST STLT PICS SHOW SHRTWV TROF LIFTING NEWRD
ACRS GRTLKS/OH VLY...ASSOCD WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF. THIS SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACRS FA LATER AM/PM BRINGING SHWRS/TSTRMS TO
FA. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB
QUICKLY...REACHING THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN
LATER AM/PM. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DWPTS IN M-U 60S WILL ALLOW
FOR ATMOS TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT TO
OCCUR. CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH 1000-200 J/KG...WITH GREATEST
INSTABILITY FROM CHMPLN VLY EAST. STG TO POTENTIALLY SVR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT WILL BE ASSISTED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCD WITH
SHRTWV TROF. SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-45 KTS. EXPECT A LINE OF
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACRS NRN NYS/SRN CANADA LATER THIS MORNING AND
THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AT 30 TO 40 KTS ACRS VT THIS PM. PRIMARY
THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO WIND DAMAGE DUE PSBL BOW ECHO. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT ALL THAT HIGH. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH WB ZERO
INDICATES RISK OF DAMAGING HAIL NOT AS GREAT AS RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT MUCH OF CONVECTION TDY DURING A 2-4 HR PERIOD...MAINLY
FROM 15-18Z IN NRN NY...AND 18-22Z IN VT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATER PM/EVENING.

ONCE SHWRS/STORMS EXIT RGN EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT MUCH OF
TONGHT TO BE DRY. THERE IS A CHC OF SHWRS LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER...MAINLY WRN ZONES...WITH APRCH OF NEXT SHWRTWV AND ASSOCD
CDFNT. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT DUE HIGH LLVL MSTR AND
LIGHT WINDS.

DURING TUESDAY...DIGGING SHRTWV AND ASSOCD CDFNT WILL MOVE ACRS FA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PM.
SIGNATURES FOR SEVERE NOT AS STG AS TDY. WIND FIELD
WEAKER...INSTABILITY MARGINAL. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH SFC FRONT AND UPPER DYNAMICS SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
TSTRM DVLPMNT THOUGH...MAINLY FROM CHMPLN VLY EAST.

RISK OF SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHES TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WX TO FA ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PORTION OF FCST ATTM. ZONAL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THURS INTO SAT. SERIES OF SHRTWVS WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTRMS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WX TO RGN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...PRIMARY FCST CONCERN/CHALLENGE TODAY IS
ARRIVAL OF POTENTIALLY STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS AREA LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT ESP THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN...FOR
THE MOST PART VFR CONDS AREA WIDE THROUGH LATE MORNING...THOUGH SOME
MVFR CONDS IN HZ POSSBL THROUGH SUNRISE. BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOC CONVECTION TO ARRIVE ACROSS NRN NY BTWN
15-18Z...AND VT FROM 18-21Z AND WILL TIME ACCORDINGLY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSBL WITH STRONGEST CELLS. THEN SENSIBLE CONDS
IMPROVING BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CONVECTION EXITS
EAST AND SKIES BECOME GENERALLY PTLY CLOUDY. WITH WET GROUND CONDS
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL OPT TO INTRODUCE SOME
PATCHY BR AREA WIDE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG









FXUS61 KBTV 190204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES. WITH RESPECT TO TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH EARLY
MORNING BEFORE SOME UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. SO GOING FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY LOOKS
GOOD. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS TONIGHT. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR TOMORROW. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE AS
TODAY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS COVERED WELL IN GOING
FORECAST AND THUS NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME FOR THE LATER
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006/

..SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTN...FA IS CENTERED BENEATH FAIRLY NARROW H5 RIDGE AND
NNE-SSW AXIS OF 18-19C 850MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF 2 PM...SFC
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION WERE NEAR 90F...AND SHOULD REACH THE
LOW/MID 90S IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS BY MID-LATE AFTN.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

IR/WV IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
W-CENTRAL IL...AND A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NWRN
ONTARIO SWWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. MODELS SUGGEST THE LATTER FEATURE
ACQUIRES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT AS IT DIGS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE IN W-CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS
AFTN BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS EMBEDDED VORT
RACES NEWD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS...AND WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER AREA OF FALLING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

SO...FOLLOWING A HUMID NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE FA BY
MID-MORNING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
ENEWD AT 25-35KT.

BIG KEY FOR SVR POTENTIAL IS AMOUNT OF INSOLATIONAL HEATING REGION
RECEIVES DURING THE MORNING HOURS...OUT AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL FORCING
AND EWD ADVANCING SFC PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN FROM LOWER MI SWD THROUGH IND...AND MID-HIGH
LVL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO WRN SECTIONS OF FA LATE TONIGHT. SFC
HEATING WILL LIKELY BE MOST PRONOUNCED EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS...WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THE MID 80S FOR HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE ACROSS NRN
NY...WHERE EARLIER TIMING OF STORMS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR
DESTABILIZATION. WE/LL SIMPLY NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS HEADING
INTO TOMORROW AS MUCH OF SVR THREAT WILL HINGE ON THIS.

PROVIDED WE RECEIVE NECESSARY HEATING EARLY TOMORROW...LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE GIVEN VLY TEMPS/TDS PERHAPS
80-85F/65-67F. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED TROUGH...AND SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTN. WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED FORCING...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
IS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.

MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE...DESPITE CONTINUED
EXPECTATION OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY AROUND 6C/KM IN H7-H5
LAYER. THESE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL LARGE HAIL
THREAT. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE SVR WORDING INTO ZONES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND HIGHLIGHT DMGING WINDS IN PARTICULAR.

ON TUESDAY...SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
NW...BRINING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTN/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS MID-LEVEL FORCING PROGRESSES EAST OF VT AFTER
06Z.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NRN
CONUS BECOMES ZONAL. AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...ONE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE
LOCATED NEAR MAINE...MOVING EWD...WHILE AN UPSTREAM...LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR NRN MN/NWRN ONTARIO. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE EXPECTED STRONG
H5 RIDGE AXIS /595DM/ ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

TIMING MOBILE TROUGHS AND SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS IS DIFFICULT IN HIGH
INDEX PATTERNS. IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN MN/NWRN ONTARIO SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY.
MINIMAL FORCING LOCALLY SUGGESTS JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AFTN/EVE
TSTMS THURSDAY...AFTER A MOSTLY DRY DAY WEDNESDAY.

A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS SERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SLOW MOVING NE-SW ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS A SLOWER SWD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
SHOULD COVER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF PUSH THE BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUNDAY THAT WE CAN
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM SEASONAL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES IS
ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

AVIATION...
NONE OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVRNITE TONITE. SOME CLDS
EXPECTED TO START TO MOVE IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST BY LATER
TONITE AND INTO SUN. CONVECTION LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NY TAF
SITES BEFORE 18Z MON. SFC WINDS TO REMAIN S-SW ACRS THE FA THRU AT
LEAST EARLY ON MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON








FXUS61 KBTV 181815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
215 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TOMORROW WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTN...FA IS CENTERED BENEATH FAIRLY NARROW H5 RIDGE AND
NNE-SSW AXIS OF 18-19C 850MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF 2 PM...SFC
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION WERE NEAR 90F...AND SHOULD REACH THE
LOW/MID 90S IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS BY MID-LATE AFTN.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

IR/WV IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
W-CENTRAL IL...AND A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NWRN
ONTARIO SWWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. MODELS SUGGEST THE LATTER FEATURE
ACQUIRES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT AS IT DIGS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE IN W-CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS
AFTN BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS EMBEDDED VORT
RACES NEWD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTN HOURS...AND WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER AREA OF FALLING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

SO...FOLLOWING A HUMID NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE FA BY
MID-MORNING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
ENEWD AT 25-35KT.

BIG KEY FOR SVR POTENTIAL IS AMOUNT OF INSOLATIONAL HEATING REGION
RECEIVES DURING THE MORNING HOURS...OUT AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL FORCING
AND EWD ADVANCING SFC PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN FROM LOWER MI SWD THROUGH IND...AND MID-HIGH
LVL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO WRN SECTIONS OF FA LATE TONIGHT. SFC
HEATING WILL LIKELY BE MOST PRONOUNCED EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS...WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THE MID 80S FOR HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE ACROSS NRN
NY...WHERE EARLIER TIMING OF STORMS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR
DESTABILIZATION. WE/LL SIMPLY NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS HEADING
INTO TOMORROW AS MUCH OF SVR THREAT WILL HINGE ON THIS.

PROVIDED WE RECEIVE NECESSARY HEATING EARLY TOMORROW...LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE GIVEN VLY TEMPS/TDS PERHAPS
80-85F/65-67F. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED TROUGH...AND SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTN. WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED FORCING...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
IS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.

MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE...DESPITE CONTINUED
EXPECTATION OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY AROUND 6C/KM IN H7-H5
LAYER. THESE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL LARGE HAIL
THREAT. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE SVR WORDING INTO ZONES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND HIGHLIGHT DMGING WINDS IN PARTICULAR.

ON TUESDAY...SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
NW...BRINING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTN/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST...AS MID-LEVEL FORCING PROGRESSES EAST OF VT AFTER
06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NRN
CONUS BECOMES ZONAL. AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...ONE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE
LOCATED NEAR MAINE...MOVING EWD...WHILE AN UPSTREAM...LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR NRN MN/NWRN ONTARIO. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE EXPECTED STRONG
H5 RIDGE AXIS /595DM/ ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

TIMING MOBILE TROUGHS AND SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS IS DIFFICULT IN HIGH
INDEX PATTERNS. IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN MN/NWRN ONTARIO SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY.
MINIMAL FORCING LOCALLY SUGGESTS JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AFTN/EVE
TSTMS THURSDAY...AFTER A MOSTLY DRY DAY WEDNESDAY.

A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS SERN CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS INDICATE A SLOW MOVING NE-SW ORIENTED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS A SLOWER SWD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
SHOULD COVER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF PUSH THE BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUNDAY THAT WE CAN
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM SEASONAL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES IS
ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
NONE OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVRNITE TONITE. SOME CLDS
EXPECTED TO START TO MOVE IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST BY LATER
TONITE AND INTO SUN. CONVECTION LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NY TAF
SITES BEFORE 18Z MON. SFC WINDS TO REMAIN S-SW ACRS THE FA THRU AT
LEAST EARLY ON MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MURRAY





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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References

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