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Expires:200606152115;;467649
FPUS51 KBTV 150730
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-152115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER
330 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006

.TODAY...PATCHY FOG UNTIL MID MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...
THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 
PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY 
EVENING...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST 
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 150755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
"SUMMER-LIKE" WX ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
REMAINS OF "ALBERTO" CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AWAY FROM AREA. OUTER CLD BANDS ON WESTERN EDGE
CONTINUE TO MV THRU SE PORTIONS OF THE FA...BUT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS "ALBERTO" MVS NE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC RIDGE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE WX OVER CWA RIGHT THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO OUR WEST INTO
FRIDAY...ALLOWING NW FLOW FOR ENTIRE FA. SAT PICS SHOW SHORT WAVE
IN EASTERN CANADA...WHICH MDLS HAVE TRAVERSING CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HINTING AT LGT QPF AS IT PASSES. MDL DYNAMICS SHOW CHANCE FOR
SOME WK INSTAB WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME -RW SO WILL KEEP W/ SL CHANCE
POPS ALREADY IN FORECAST...FOR THE AFTNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS.
FRIDAY WILL BE MUNDANE AS RIDGE AXIS MVS OVER FA. RIDGE DOES SHIFT
S/SE DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL PUT US IN WESTERLY FLOW...AND WILL
NOT BE EXPECTING PRECIP...BY AFTERNOON CLDS WILL DEVELOP W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. BIG ISSUE/S FOR THE FA WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS SFC
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF AREA...OPENING REGION TO SW FLOW. TEMPS
WILL TREND UPWARD THRU ENTIRE SHORT TERM AS WARMER AIR PUMPS INTO
REGION. 850 MDL TEMPS SHOW GRADUAL INCR FROM 14C THURS/FRI UP TO
20C SAT/SUN SO WILL TREND HIGHS UP DURING THIS TIME. MAV GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS HAS 92F FOR SAT...BUT HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A BIT. THE OTHER
FACTOR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND WILL BE THE ADVANCE OF
POTENTIAL MCS WHICH NAM CARRIES...BUT GFS DOES NOT AS IT HAS RIDGE
OVER FA...PUSHING FRNT/SYSTEM NORTH OF AREA...BUT DROPPING BACKDOOR
FRNT OVER FA LATE IN WEEKEND. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO GFS KEEPING
SYSTEM NORTH BUT KEEP SL CHANCE FOR SOME -RW ACTIVITY AS SOME OF
CONVECTION ALONG FRNT MAY TRIGGER PRECIP...ESPECIALLY IN N NY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWEAKED CLDS/PRECIP A BIT FOR SAT NGT...WITH NO CHANGES TO REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED FORECAST ATTM. BACKDOOR FRNT TO DROP SOUTH OVER FA SUN
INTO MON. WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AHEAD OF FROPA ON SUN. CURRENT
FORECAST WITH MENTION OF RW/TRW LOOKS GD AT THIS TIME. REST OF
EXTENDED MAY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED LATER TDY W/ NEWER GUIDANCE AS
CURRENT MDLS HINT THAT RIDGE MAY REMAIN OVER CWA...INHIBITING PRECIP
SOMEWHAT.
&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS AT 06Z/15 PLACES REMNANTS OF ALBERTO WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND MOVING OUT TO SEA. NRN EDGE OF ASOCD MID CLOUD SHIELD ACRS
ERN AND SRN VT MOVG E.

THIS MRNG EXPC SCT CLDS 6-10K FT EXCP BKN ACRS ERN AND SRN VT FM
06-14Z. THEN AN UPR LVL TROF MOVG ACRS THE AREA WILL TRIGGER
SCT-BKN CLDS 040-060 THIS AFTN...WITH SLGT CHC -SHRA ACRS
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS WITH BRF MVFR IN ANY SHRA.

OTRW SFC HI OVR NRN GRTLKS ERLY THIS MRNG WL MOV TO ERN GRTLKS BY
END OF FCST PD.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...SFH









FXUS61 KBTV 150224 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIME OF PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT TONIGHT AND THESE SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION HAS
ENDED. WILL CONFINE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL
MENTION DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL HOLD ONTO A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ALBERTO PASSING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 333 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006/

SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TROF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CAUSING SHOWERS AND SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ALBERTO MOVE OUT TO SEA. WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER NORTHERN VT AND NY WITH ISLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVE IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WHILE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AS SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER.
MODELS INDICATE THIS ALL MOVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. NAM LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO DRY WHILE GFS AND PARALLEL NAM MORE REALISTIC.

TOMORROW A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT AND SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR A SHOWER.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP EVERYONE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY AND
WARM ON FRIDAY WITH 850 TEMPS 12-15C WHICH SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 80S.

A WEAK WARM FRONT/WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MODELS NOT THAT CONVINCING YET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRIMARY WX HIGHLIGHTS OVER EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE A
RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDS DURING SAT/SUN...THEN A
MORE UNCERTAIN FCST FROM MONDAY AND BEYOND. LATEST 00Z/06Z
OP/ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW BROAD SCALE HEIGHT RISES BY LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS LARGE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGING PUSHES EASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL STATES. MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS RISE INTO THE 15-18C RANGE DURING
SATURDAY...AND 18-19C BY SUNDAY...AND WITH AMPLE SUN/BNDRY LYR
MIXING THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...AND NEARING
90 OR LOW 90S BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.
UNCERTAINTY THEN ARISES BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EARLIER 00Z/06Z GFS
OP/ENSEMBLES INDICATED BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO CONTINUE ACROSS AREA
WITH A CHC OF MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED -SHRAS/STORMS. LATEST 12Z
RUN...ALONG WITH LAST NIGHTS CANADIAN AND EURO RUNS INDICATE A
RETURN TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS NE CONUS ALONG WITH COOLER
MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND AN INCREASED THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAFL. AGAIN...DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS TROUGH
WILL BE HOWEVER...WITH GFS OFFERING MOST ROBUST SOLN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HVY RAFL THREAT. THIS DUE TO DEEP RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES TRAVERSING FA ON NW PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS WRN ATLANTIC. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THIS IS
THE START OF A TREND OR IS JUST AN ANOMALY IN THE 12Z GFS/00Z
CANADIAN/EURO RUNS..AND OFFER HPC SOLN OF CONTINUED WARM/HUMID CONDS
AND LOW CHCS OF MAINLY AFT/EVE SHOWERS/STORMS.

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS
AS CLOUDS/DEEP MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF ALBERTO PASS WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE/PVA CONVERGENCE ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS
TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF FA THIS EVENING...AND WILL OPT TO
CARRY A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF -RA/-SHRAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING AT KMPV ONLY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD
..THOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AT KSLK/KMSS
THROUGH 00Z. PATCHY BR/FG TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT
FAVORED MTN HOLLOWS/VALLEYS. ATTM WILL INCLUDE ONLY AT KMPV WHERE
ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS EVENING WILL AID IN LOWER LVL SATURATION
OVERNT. THEN VFR AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW AND MAINLY CLR SKIES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EVENSON








FXUS61 KBTV 141933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TROF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CAUSING SHOWERS AND SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ALBERTO MOVE OUT TO SEA. WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER NORTHERN VT AND NY WITH ISLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVE IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WHILE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AS SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER.
MODELS INDICATE THIS ALL MOVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. NAM LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO DRY WHILE GFS AND PARALLEL NAM MORE REALISTIC.

TOMORROW A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT AND SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR A SHOWER.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP EVERYONE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY AND
WARM ON FRIDAY WITH 850 TEMPS 12-15C WHICH SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 80S.

A WEAK WARM FRONT/WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MODELS NOT THAT CONVINCING YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRIMARY WX HIGHLIGHTS OVER EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE A
RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDS DURING SAT/SUN...THEN A
MORE UNCERTAIN FCST FROM MONDAY AND BEYOND. LATEST 00Z/06Z
OP/ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW BROAD SCALE HEIGHT RISES BY LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS LARGE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGING PUSHES EASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL STATES. MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS RISE INTO THE 15-18C RANGE DURING
SATURDAY...AND 18-19C BY SUNDAY...AND WITH AMPLE SUN/BNDRY LYR
MIXING THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...AND NEARING
90 OR LOW 90S BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.
UNCERTAINTY THEN ARISES BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EARLIER 00Z/06Z GFS
OP/ENSEMBLES INDICATED BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO CONTINUE ACROSS AREA
WITH A CHC OF MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED -SHRAS/STORMS. LATEST 12Z
RUN...ALONG WITH LAST NIGHTS CANADIAN AND EURO RUNS INDICATE A
RETURN TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS NE CONUS ALONG WITH COOLER
MORE SEASONAL TE          77          52          81          57
TEMP             69 62 55 52 52 61 71 75 73 66 60 55 57 67 77 80 77 70 65 63 63
DEWPT            47 48 46 45 46 48 48 47 48 49 50 49 50 52 51 51 53 53 55 55 56
RH               45 60 72 77 80 62 44 37 41 54 69 80 77 59 40 36 43 55 70 75 78
WIND DIR         NW  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  W  W  W SW
WIND SPD          3  1  2  3  4  6 10 13 11  6  5  4  6  9 11 11  8  3  3  3  5
CLOUDS           BK SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC FW FW SC SC SC SC FW FW SC
POP 12HR                     20           5           0           0           0
QPF 12HR

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          0.02           0           0           0           0
RAIN SHWRS       IS IS
TSTMS            IS IS


DATE           06/17/06  SUN 06/18/06  MON 06/19/06  TUE 06/20/06  WED 06/21/06
UTC 6HRLY     16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22
EDT 6HRLY     12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18

MAX/MIN          81      54    83      56    81      57    82      57    78
TEMP          76 77 63   58 77 79 65   60 75 77 64   60 76 78 65   60 74 76
DEWPT         52 56 57   56 60 61 61   58 60 62 60   57 58 62 59   57 62 64
PWIND DIR        SW      SW    SW      SW    SW       W    NW      NW    SW
WIND CHAR        GN      GN    LT      LT    LT      LT    LT      LT    LT
AVG CLOUDS    SC BK BK   BK BK BK BK   BK BK BK BK   BK SC SC SC   SC SC SC
POP 12HR         20      20    40      40    40      30    20      10    10
RAIN SHWRS        S  S       S  C  C    C  C  C  C    S  S
TSTMS                           C

$$

MEZ006-150945-
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOULTON...HODGDON...SHERMAN...
SMYRNA MILLS
334 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

DATE                         THU 06/15/06            FRI 06/16/06            SA
T
UTC 3HRLY     19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10
EDT 3HRLY     15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06

MIN/MAX                      46          78          49          83          56
TEMP             69 61 54 50 51 63 72 76 73 64 56 51 53 67 77 81 78 69 64 61 62
DEWPT            48 48 47 45 46 49 48 47 48 50 49 47 48 53 52 52 53 54 54 55 57
RH               47 62 77 83 83 60 42 36 41 60 77 86 83 61 42 37 42 59 70 81 84
WIND DIR         NW  N NE  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N NW NW NW NW NW  W SW SW SW SW
WIND SPD          2  2  1  2  3  5  9 12  9  5  3  2  4  8 10  9  5  1  3  4  5
CLOUDS           BK SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC FW FW FW SC SC SC SC FW FW SC
POP 12HR                     20           5           0           0           0
QPF 12HR                   0.02           0           0           0           0
RAIN SHWRS       IS IS
TSTMS            IS IS


DATE           06/17/06  SUN 06/18/06  MON 06/19/06  TUE 06/20/06  WED 06/21/06
UTC 6HRLY     16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22
EDT 6HRLY     12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18

MAX/MIN          81      54    84      56    80      55    80      57    79
TEMP          75 77 62   57 77 80 65   60 75 76 63   58 74 76 64   60 74 77
DEWPT         53 55 56   56 60 63 62   58 60 62 60   56 57 62 59   58 63 66
PWIND DIR        SW      SW    SW      SW    SW       W    NW      NW    SW
WIND CHAR        GN      GN    LT      GN    GN      LT    LT      LT    LT
AVG CLOUDS    SC BK BK   BK BK BK BK   BK BK BK BK   BK SC SC SC   SC SC SC
POP 12HR         20      20    40      40    40      30    20      10    10
RAIN SHWRS        S  S       S  C  C    C  C  C  C    S  S                S
TSTMS                           C

$$

MEZ010-150945-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREENVILLE...MONSON...BLANCHARD
334 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

DATE                         THU 06/15/06            FRI 06/16/06            SA
T
UTC 3HRLY     19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10
EDT 3HRLY     15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06

MIN/MAX                      50          74          53          78          57
TEMP             66 60 57 54 55 60 67 71 69 64 59 57 57 65 73 76 74 68 63 61 62
DEWPT            47 48 47 46 46 46 46 46 47 48 49 48 50 51 51 51 52 54 55 56 54
RH               50 64 69 74 72 60 47 41 45 56 69 72 77 60 46 42 46 61 75 84 75
WIND DIR          N NE NE  N  N  N  N  N  N  N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  W  W  W  W
WIND SPD          2  1  2  4  5  6 12 16 12  6  6  8  9 10 11 10  8  4  5  6  6
CLOUDS           BK SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC FW FW SC SC SC SC FW FW SC
POP 12HR                     30          10           0           0           0
QPF 12HR                   0.03           0           0           0           0
RAIN SHWRS       SC IS
TSTMS            SC IS


DATE           06/17/06  SUN 06/18/06  MON 06/19/06  TUE 06/20/06  WED 06/21/06
UTC 6HRLY     16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22
EDT 6HRLY     12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18

MAX/MIN          79      54    83      58    81      57    82      56    76
TEMP          74 76 62   58 76 79 66   61 76 78 65   60 77 79 64   59 72 74
DEWPT         53 57 57   55 60 60 61   59 59 61 61   57 59 62 58   56 60 62
PWIND DIR        SW      SW    SW      SW    SW       W    NW      NW     W
WIND CHAR        GN      LT    LT      LT    LT      LT    GN      LT    LT
AVG CLOUDS    SC BK BK   BK BK BK BK   BK BK BK BK   BK SC SC SC   SC SC SC
POP 12HR         20      20    40      40    40      30    20      10    10
RAIN SHWRS        S  S       S  C  C    C  C  C  C    S  S
TSTMS                           C

$$

MEZ011-150945-
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LINCOLN...HOWLAND...SPRINGFIELD
334 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

DATE                         THU 06/15/06            FRI 06/16/06            SA
T
UTC 3HRLY     19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10
EDT 3HRLY     15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06

MIN/MAX                      51          77          52          83          57
TEMP             68 65 58 53 53 62 72 76 75 67 59 55 56 67 78 81 78 70 63 61 62
DEWPT            54 54 52 49 49 51 48 48 51 52 52 50 51 54 53 52 53 54 55 56 57
RH               61 68 80 86 86 67 42 37 43 59 78 83 83 6365 45 39 43 57 73 78
78
WIND DIR          W  W SW  N  N NE  N  N  N  N  N  N  N NW NW

DATA LOST


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 NW  W  W  W  W SW
WIND SPD          3  1  1  2  4  8 10 12  9  6  5  4  5  8  9 10  6  1  2  3  4
CLOUDS           BK BK BK BK BK SC SC SC SC SC SC SC FW FW SC SC SC SC FW FW SC
POP 12HR                     40          20           5           0           0
QPF 12HR                   0.05        0.01           0           0           0
RAIN SHWRS       SC SC IS IS IS IS
TSTMS            SC SC


DATE           06/17/06  SUN 06/18/06  MON 06/19/06  TUE 06/20/06  WED 06/21/06
UTC 6HRLY     16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22 04   10 16 22
EDT 6HRLY     12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18 00   06 12 18

MAX/MIN          82      53    82      56    81      56    79      56    81
TEMP          77 78 62   57 75 78 64   59 75 77 64   59 74 76 63   59 75 78
DEWPT         53 54 55   55 61 63 60   56 60 62 59   55 56 63 59   58 63 67
PWIND DIR        SW       S     S      SW    SW       W    NW       W    SW
WIND CHAR        GN      GN    GN      GN    LT      LT    LT      LT    LT
AVG CLOUDS    SC SC BK   BK BK BK BK   BK BK BK BK   BK SC SC SC   SC SC SC
POP 12HR         10      10    40      30    40      30    20      10    10
RAIN SHWRS           S       S  C  C    C  C  C  C    S  S
TSTMS                           C

$$








FXUS61 KBTV 141933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TROF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CAUSING SHOWERS AND SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ALBERTO MOVE OUT TO SEA. WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER NORTHERN VT AND NY WITH ISLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVE IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WARM FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WHILE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AS SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER.
MODELS INDICATE THIS ALL MOVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. NAM LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO DRY WHILE GFS AND PARALLEL NAM MORE REALISTIC.

TOMORROW A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT AND SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR A SHOWER.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP EVERYONE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY AND
WARM ON FRIDAY WITH 850 TEMPS 12-15C WHICH SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 80S.

A WEAK WARM FRONT/WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MODELS NOT THAT CONVINCING YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRIMARY WX HIGHLIGHTS OVER EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE A
RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDS DURING SAT/SUN...THEN A
MORE UNCERTAIN FCST FROM MONDAY AND BEYOND. LATEST 00Z/06Z
OP/ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW BROAD SCALE HEIGHT RISES BY LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS LARGE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGING PUSHES EASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL STATES. MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS RISE INTO THE 15-18C RANGE DURING
SATURDAY...AND 18-19C BY SUNDAY...AND WITH AMPLE SUN/BNDRY LYR
MIXING THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...AND NEARING
90 OR LOW 90S BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.
UNCERTAINTY THEN ARISES BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EARLIER 00Z/06Z GFS
OP/ENSEMBLES INDICATED BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO CONTINUE ACROSS AREA
WITH A CHC OF MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED -SHRAS/STORMS. LATEST 12Z
RUN...ALONG WITH LAST NIGHTS CANADIAN AND EURO RUNS INDICATE A
RETURN TO BROAD SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS NE CONUS ALONG WITH COOLER
MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND AN INCREASED THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAFL. AGAIN...DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS TROUGH
WILL BE HOWEVER...WITH GFS OFFERING MOST ROBUST SOLN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HVY RAFL THREAT. THIS DUE TO DEEP RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES TRAVERSING FA ON NW PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS WRN ATLANTIC. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THIS IS
THE START OF A TREND OR IS JUST AN ANOMALY IN THE 12Z GFS/00Z
CANADIAN/EURO RUNS..AND OFFER HPC SOLN OF CONTINUED WARM/HUMID CONDS
AND LOW CHCS OF MAINLY AFT/EVE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS
AS CLOUDS/DEEP MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF ALBERTO PASS WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE/PVA CONVERGENCE ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS
TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF FA THIS EVENING...AND WILL OPT TO
CARRY A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF -RA/-SHRAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING AT KMPV ONLY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD
...THOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AT KSLK/KMSS
THROUGH 00Z. PATCHY BR/FG TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT
FAVORED MTN HOLLOWS/VALLEYS. ATTM WILL INCLUDE ONLY AT KMPV WHERE
ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS EVENING WILL AID IN LOWER LVL SATURATION
OVERNT. THEN VFR AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW AND MAINLY CLR SKIES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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