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Expires:200606292015;;820923
FPUS51 KBTV 290645
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018-292015-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...
BRISTOL...RIPTON
245 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS 
AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS 75 TO 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 
10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG 
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL THIS EVENING. LOWS 
AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE 
MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 70 TO 75. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 
MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 
15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE 
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
AFTERNOON. HIGHS 75 TO 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF 
RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 55 TO 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 
PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 290730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE RAFL/HUMID CONDS ON TAP FOR A OVERLY SOGGY NORTH COUNTRY AGAIN
TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES REGION FROM THE WEST.
OF ADDL CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HVY RAFL/FLASH FLOOD THREAT
(SEE HYDRO BLW). LATEST OPEATIONAL SOLNS PAINT A SIMILAR SCENARIO
FOR TODAY THAT HAS BEEN OFFERED OVER PAST FEW DAYS IN THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRAMSS ACROSS
REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD...MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG...ESP
LATER TODAY AS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45KT COMBINED WITH DECENT
CAPE AND FAVORABLE RER MID-UPPER JET DYNAMICS TRAVERSE AREA. WILL
INTRODUCE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE TEXT FCST ACCORDINGLY. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THEN WANES OVERNIGHT DUE MAINLY TO LOSS OF
INSOLATION...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN FOR FRIDAY AS ACTUAL SFC
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM NORTH. NOT MUCH BAROCLINICITY W/THIS
FEATURE...NONETHELESS...WITH UPPER TROUGH AROP REGION...RATHER COOL
TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST...AND WILL
OPT TO INTRODUCE THUNDER. WBZ HEIGHTS RATHER LOW AS WELL...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRIZED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGEST CELLS.

A GENERAL DRYING TREND SHOULD THEN OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SFC
SHORTWAVE RIDGING NOSES NORTH INTO REGION AND MEAN DRYING OCCURS
FROM SFC TO MID LVLS. OLD SFC TROUGH STILL APPEARS TO LINGER
AROUND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING SATURDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A LOW CHC OF PCPN NORTH...THOUGH MEAN DYNAMICS/FORCING SHOULD
OCCUR NORTHEAST OF REGION...AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NOT
ANTICIPATED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST ATTM. LATEST OP SOLNS ARGUE FOR
HIGHEST THEAT OF PCPN WILL OCCUR DURING SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVE...THEN
AGAIN BY TUE/TUE EVENING AS SUCCESSIVLE IMPULSES/UPPER TROUGHS
TRAVERSE THE AREA. BOTH DAYS POTENTIALLY COULD BE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVELY...WITH HINTS AT DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS MENTION OF PCPN DURING THESE PERIODS. SECOND
UPPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A STRONGER FEATURE AT THIS
POINT...WITH MODELS NOW ADVERTISING A RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDS BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WED/THU WITH LINGERING DYNAMICS EVIDENT.
&&

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...BUT EXPECT SOME IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXIST DUE TO YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
FROM 16Z TO 00Z AND ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIST BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z...BUT LOOKING
AT VFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FROM 00Z
THROUGH 06Z.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT IN ANY OF THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAFL ACROSS AREA OVER PAST 24 HRS GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT...AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF ACROSS THE DACKS...AND BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES SOUTHERN VT. WITH
SUCH ANTECEDENTLY WET CONDS ACROSS ENTIRE FA...1/3/6 HR FFG REMAINS
QUITE LOW...AND ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS ANY TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES/HR OR 2.5
INCHES/3HR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAUSE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF PROBLEMS.
WILL MONITOR RAFL/CONVECTIVE TRENDS CLOSELY TODAY.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...EVENSON
HYDROLOGY...JMG









FXUS61 KBTV 281919
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS QUICKLY LIFTED INTO ME THIS AFTN WITH
STEADIEST RAIN DEPARTING AS WELL. THERE HV BEEN NUMEROUS BINOVC
INCLDG PTLY-MSTLY SUNNY IN ST LWRNC VLY...WHERE DFRNTL HEATING IN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS AND WL CONT TO TRIGGER ISOLD SHRA AND PSBL
RUMBLE THRU ERLY EVENING.

NE CONUS STL UNDER INFLUENCE OF UNSEASONABLY STG/DEEP TROF THAT WL
FINALLY BE MVG E ACRS FA THRU FRI. UPSTREAM...SVRL S/W ROTATING ARD
H5 CLOSED LOW ACRS GRT LAKES WITH AIRMASS STL UNSTABLE WAS ACCNTG
FOR NMRS SCT SHRA/-TSRA IN GRT LAKES.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND EXITING TROPICAL SYSTEM WL MEAN SOME
CLRG OVRNGT...LGT WNDS...AND PTCHY FOG WITH ANY CONVECTION FM ERN
GRT LAKES ACTVTY GRUDLINGLY MVG INTO NRN NY WELL AFT MIDNGT.

AT THE SFC...SFC FNT STL ACRS QUEBEC/ONTARIO/GRT LAKES WITH TD IN
60S S AND 50S N OF BNDRY. H5 LOW FILLS BUT SVRL S/W ROTATE INTO FA
WITH H5 TROF AXIS STARTING TO SWING INTO NRN NY BY THU EVENING WITH SFC
FNT STL REMAINING N OF FA. DAYTIME HEATING WL BUILD CAPES TO ARD
1000 J/KG FOR DVLPG -SHRA/TSRA AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM TDY.

H5 TROF AXIS CONTS TO ROTATE ACRS FA WITH FALLING HGTS AND SFC FNT
BEGINS TO SLIP SE INTO NY THU NGT AS WELL FOR COMBINED FORCED
LIFTING AND CHC/SCT -SHRA CONTG.

H5 TROF AXIS AND SFC FNT SCHDLD TO MV THRU FRI MRNG/ERLY AFTN WITH
LWRG TD COMPARED TO THU BUT UPSTREAM ACRS WI (TDY)...STL SOME
-SHRA/ISOLD -TSRA SO KEEPING MORE -SHRA BUT STL CHC/SCT COMPARED TO
LKLY THU.

FRI NGT/SAT...STL CYCLONIC FLOW BUT FLATTER THAN CRNT PATTERN WITH
FLAT/WEAK H8/SFC RDG FOR SOME WAA RETURN FLOW. ATTM...KEEPING IT DRY
BUT FEEL MORE CLDS THAN ERLR ANTICIPATED.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN WL CHANGE FROM A MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED S/W'S EVERY COUPLE OF
DAYS IMPACTING OUR FA NEXT WEEK. FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRES WL IMPACT CWA ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST LLVL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
SOUTH OF FA ATTM WITH BEST SHEAR PARAMETERS ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZNS. SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA
BY MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA. MEANWHILE...SFC FRNT
WL BECOME STATIONARY ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/SNE ON MONDAY INTO
TUES WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE LLVL
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID/UPPER
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK TO STAY SOUTH OF FA THRU EARLY TUES.
HOWEVER...MORE ENERGY ROUNDING A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WL MOVE APPROACH OUR CWA BY LATE TUES INTO
WEDS. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE VERY SIMILAR DAYS 4-7 WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS WL BE FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG TONIGHT
AND THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN LIFTING NE OF CWA
THIS AFTN WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE CPV
ATTM. MEANWHILE...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
STARTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACRS WESTERN NY/SOUTHERN CANADA THIS AFTN FROM
WEAK S/W ENERGY AND SOME LLVL INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING. GIVEN
CRNT RADAR TRENDS WL MENTION VCTS AT MSS/SLK BTWN 20Z-00Z THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND BL PROGGS SHOWS PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS
COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM OBS WL MENTION FG AT MPV/SLK AND REDUCE VIS
TO 2SM BR AT BTV/MSS WITH CIGS BTWN BKN-OVC005-010. FEEL FOG WL
DEVELOP BTWN 03-05Z TONIGHT AND REDUCE VIS BLW 1/2SM BY 07Z TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z THURS. MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WL IMPACT TAF SITES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL FLOOD WATCHES AND WRNGS WERE CANCELLED AT 130 PM EDT AS STEADY
RAIN WAS EXITING CR RVR VLY. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WL BE THE RULE THRU FRI
THEN A GNRL DRIER TREND BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY.

WE (NRN NY/VT) FORTUNATELY MISSED THE FLOODING THAT THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND OTHER PTNS OF NE WITNESSED THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. THAT'S TWO NEAR
MISSES (MOTHERS DAY)...BUT NONETHELESS WE HAVE WITNESSED A
CONSIDERABLE AMT OF RAINFALL FOR MAY AND JUNE (200 PCT OF NORMAL).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...SLW







   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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References

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