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Expires:200608172115;;062758
FPUS51 KBTV 170710
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-172115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
310 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

.TODAY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN 
THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 
MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 
MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST 
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 170704
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
303 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  THIS
FEATURE WILL BE OUR NEXT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT ORIENTATION
OF THE FRONT AND UPPER DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE MORE LATER IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THUS WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME.  TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE ABOUT A
DEGREE COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE TO ABOUT +15C
ON FRIDAY WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S RANGE ON FRIDAY.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SATURDAY SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE MOVING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE A
NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON THE AREA.  MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
SURFACE LOW.  AS A RESULT...HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND LINGERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
AS IT COULD EASILY BE MORE OF A WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT
VERSUS SHOWERS.  HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR WILL ALSO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.  ONCE THIS FEATURE EXITS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER TO
THE AREA IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE SUNDAY FORECAST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD
HANDLE ON THE DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SO VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS AREA WIDE AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
FOOTHOLD ON REGIONAL WX CONDS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VIS IN BR/FG AT
FAVORED LOCALES THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN BTWN 06-12Z
FRI AS NOCTURNAL BNDRY LYR DECOUPLES. OTW MAINLY SKC TO SCT THROUGH
EVENING UNDER LIGHT NW WIND REGIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG





FXUS61 KBTV 170213
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1013 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...STRATOCU HAS DISSIPATED AS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO SLOWLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. WINDS CALM MANY LOCATIONS...AND
UNDER NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOG FORMATION A GOOD
BET...ALSO COVERED IN CURRENT FORECAST. FCST MIN TEMPS IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBS AND DEWPOINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 259 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CRNTLY...TROF AXIS EXITING FA WITH GRDL BUILDING OF ULVL RDG FM
CENTRAL CONUS INTO NE TNGT THRU FRI WITH SFC HIGH MVG DIRECTLY OVR
FA THRU MIDDAY FRI. THIS WL ALLOW SUNNY...DRY WITH MODERATE TMPS THU
AND CLR/CALM/COOL AND FOGGY TNGT/THU NGT AND SLGT WAA AND GRDL MOIST
RETURNING FRI AFTN IN THE FORM OF GRDL INCRSG TD AND A FEW CLDS.

LATE FRI...A GRDL FLATTENING OF ULVL RDG THANKS TO NRN STREAM S/W
APPROACHING FM CENT CANADA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THERE WL BE A
WEAK RIDGE RUNNER PEAKING THE RDG ACR GRT LAKES ALG THE CD FNT AT
THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE A WAVE MAY DVLP ALG THIS
FNT PSBLY SLOWING PROGRESS A TAD TIL NRN STREAM S/W MVS ACRS NRN
GRT LAKES LATE SAT AND FA SAT NGT/ERLY SUN.

ATTM...MORE CLDS SAT WITH INCRSG MOIST/TD WITH TMPS SLGTLY COOLER
THAN FRI DUE TO CLDS ALG WITH INCRSG THREAT OF -SHRA/-TSRA W TO E
LATE IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLOW
DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO LOOK A LITTLE TOO DEEP WITH
THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...SO HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA
ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
AFTER 00Z WITH SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AT 060-080. A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR AFTER 05Z WITH CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS WHICH WILL
HELP TO LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF RADIATION FOG IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 05Z. LOOKING FOR
LOCAL AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR TO DEVELOP AFTER 05Z AND CONTINUE TO 13Z
ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV...KSLK ...KMVL AND KVSF. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGHOUT VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY
14Z ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HANSON










FXUS61 KBTV 161859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CRNTLY...TROF AXIS EXITING FA WITH GRDL BUILDING OF ULVL RDG FM
CENTRAL CONUS INTO NE TNGT THRU FRI WITH SFC HIGH MVG DIRECTLY OVR
FA THRU MIDDAY FRI. THIS WL ALLOW SUNNY...DRY WITH MODERATE TMPS THU
AND CLR/CALM/COOL AND FOGGY TNGT/THU NGT AND SLGT WAA AND GRDL MOIST
RETURNING FRI AFTN IN THE FORM OF GRDL INCRSG TD AND A FEW CLDS.

LATE FRI...A GRDL FLATTENING OF ULVL RDG THANKS TO NRN STREAM S/W
APPROACHING FM CENT CANADA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THERE WL BE A
WEAK RIDGE RUNNER PEAKING THE RDG ACR GRT LAKES ALG THE CD FNT AT
THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE A WAVE MAY DVLP ALG THIS
FNT PSBLY SLOWING PROGRESS A TAD TIL NRN STREAM S/W MVS ACRS NRN
GRT LAKES LATE SAT AND FA SAT NGT/ERLY SUN.

ATTM...MORE CLDS SAT WITH INCRSG MOIST/TD WITH TMPS SLGTLY COOLER
THAN FRI DUE TO CLDS ALG WITH INCRSG THREAT OF -SHRA/-TSRA W TO E
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLOW
DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO LOOK A LITTLE TOO DEEP WITH
THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...SO HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA
ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
AFTER 00Z WITH SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AT 060-080. A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR AFTER 05Z WITH CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS WHICH WILL
HELP TO LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF RADIATION FOG IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 05Z. LOOKING FOR
LOCAL AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR TO DEVELOP AFTER 05Z AND CONTINUE TO 13Z
ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV...KSLK ...KMVL AND KVSF. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGHOUT VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY
14Z ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH







   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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