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Expires:200608162115;;035688
FPUS51 KBTV 160701
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-162115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
300 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

.TODAY...CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN 
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.THURSDAY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 
IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 75 TO 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 
MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 160704
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
303 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...A RATHER
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SIMILAR TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT IN SHOWING THESE CLOUDS
HOLDING ON THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST/DISSIPATING.
WILL MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.  NO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL...WHICH HELPED
TO WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT YESTERDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.  THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING INVERSION SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.  OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A WARMING TREND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO +15C BY FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD
PUT READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND GOING FORECAST HAS A
REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.  OVERALL FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND.  THIS FEATURE
DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY.  GRIDS HAVE A CHANCE ON SATURDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THAT LOOKS GOOD.  HIGH PRESSURE
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURN FOR THE START OF EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER.  GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES WILL SEE VFR COND THRU ENTIRE PERIOD WITH BKN LOW/MID CLDS
DECKS WILL BECM SCT BY 18Z...DOWN TO FEW AFT 00Z. SOME FG EXPECTED
AT KMPV-KSLK 08Z-14Z WED AND AGAIN 02Z-06Z THUR. NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
WINDS LGT/VAR...BECM NW AFT 08Z FOR KBTV/KMSS AND AFT 14Z-15Z FOR
KMPV/KSLK. WINDS AROUND 10KTS THRU 00Z THEN BECM LGT/VAR AGAIN. SOME
HIR TRRN OBSCD THRU 12Z-15Z AT KBTV/KMSS/KMPV AND BY 18Z-19Z FOR
KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JN





FXUS61 KBTV 160240
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO TWEAK THE POPS. NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA..NOW ALONG OR SOUTH OF RTE TO 2 IN VT...BACK TO NEAR SARANAC
LAKE. ADJUSTED POPS TO GO DRY TO THE NORTH...AND KEPT OR
INTRODUCED SLGT CHC SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING FURTHER SOUTH.
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...TRACE TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DO SO AS THEY MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
ENERGY.

SPEAKING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWING AXIS OF
TROF MOVING ALONG NORTHERN NY/CANADIAN BORDER...AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT IN THE MORNING.

TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 237 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CRNTLY...A RATHER HEALTHY S/W ROTATES ACRS SRN QUEBEC DRG MAX
DAYTIME HEATING WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND TD IN 50S...ENUF
FOR FEW/SCT -SHRA THIS AFTN AND CONTG INTO EVE HRS.

ULVL TROF ACRS FA WITH NW FLOW AND MOISTURE UPSTREAM ASSOC WITH
ANTHR S/W AND SFC TROF WL KEEP CLDS ACRS PTNS OF FA...ESP NRN VT
TNGT INTO ERLY WED.

COOLER AIR WL HAVE ADVECTED INTO FA LATE TDY/TNGT/ERLY WED DROPPING
H8 TMPS FM 11-13C THIS MRNG TO 9-11C FOR WED AFTN. MAV MAX TMPS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING WRM BIAS THE LAST SVRL DAYS AND WL LEAN TOWARD NAM.

GRDL BUILDING OF ULVL RDG FM CENTRAL CONUS INTO NE THRU FRI WITH SFC
HIGH MVG DIRECTLY OVR FA MEANS NO FVRBL RETURN FLOW STG WAA ACRS FA
BUT INSTEAD A GRDL MODIFICATION IN AIRMASS WITH SLOWLY RISING HGTS/
THICKNESSES. THEREFORE...PLENTY OF SS...MILD/WRM AND LOW HUMIDITY
THRU THU.

THEREAFTER...A FLATTENING OF ULVL RDG FM NRN STREAM S/W AND SFC HIGH
MVG E OF FA WL MEAN GRDL INCREASE IN TMPS/MOIST/HUMIDITY. THERE WL
BE FALLING HGTS WITH DAMPENING RDG AS WELL AS AN INVERTED TROF AND
MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME DVLPG CU BUT WL LV DRY ATTM WITH OUR EYES
NW FOR ANTHR S/W AND SFC FNT TO MV ACRS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND OUR FA
FOR SAT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRESS STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FA ACRS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A CFROPA EXPECTED ACRS THE FA SOMETIME IN THE SAT/SUN
TIME-FRAME. WILL CONT TO GO WITH A DRY FCST ACRS MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT SOME SCHC/CHC POPS ON SAT THRU SUN. LOADED
IN THE LATEST HPC TEMP/DEWPT/WIND DATA...WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS.

AVIATION...
KSLK EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVRNITE TONITE AND HAVE A DECENT CHC A
SEEING SOME BR. SOME LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE AS WELL AT KMSS/KMPV
OVRNITE TONITE. SFC WINDS TO BECOME MORE W-NW WITH TIME INTO TONITE
AND EARLY ON WED ACRS THE FA. AFTER A FEW -SHRA MOVING ACRS THE FA
LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...CLDS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACRS MUCH
OF THE FA INTO EARLY ON WED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HANSON








FXUS61 KBTV 151837
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CRNTLY...A RATHER HEALTHY S/W ROTATES ACRS SRN QUEBEC DRG MAX
DAYTIME HEATING WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND TD IN 50S...ENUF
FOR FEW/SCT -SHRA THIS AFTN AND CONTG INTO EVE HRS.

ULVL TROF ACRS FA WITH NW FLOW AND MOISTURE UPSTREAM ASSOC WITH
ANTHR S/W AND SFC TROF WL KEEP CLDS ACRS PTNS OF FA...ESP NRN VT
TNGT INTO ERLY WED.

COOLER AIR WL HAVE ADVECTED INTO FA LATE TDY/TNGT/ERLY WED DROPPING
H8 TMPS FM 11-13C THIS MRNG TO 9-11C FOR WED AFTN. MAV MAX TMPS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING WRM BIAS THE LAST SVRL DAYS AND WL LEAN TOWARD NAM.

GRDL BUILDING OF ULVL RDG FM CENTRAL CONUS INTO NE THRU FRI WITH SFC
HIGH MVG DIRECTLY OVR FA MEANS NO FVRBL RETURN FLOW STG WAA ACRS FA
BUT INSTEAD A GRDL MODIFICATION IN AIRMASS WITH SLOWLY RISING HGTS/
THICKNESSES. THEREFORE...PLENTY OF SS...MILD/WRM AND LOW HUMIDITY
THRU THU.

THEREAFTER...A FLATTENING OF ULVL RDG FM NRN STREAM S/W AND SFC HIGH
MVG E OF FA WL MEAN GRDL INCREASE IN TMPS/MOIST/HUMIDITY. THERE WL
BE FALLING HGTS WITH DAMPENING RDG AS WELL AS AN INVERTED TROF AND
MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME DVLPG CU BUT WL LV DRY ATTM WITH OUR EYES
NW FOR ANTHR S/W AND SFC FNT TO MV ACRS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND OUR FA
FOR SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRESS STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FA ACRS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A CFROPA EXPECTED ACRS THE FA SOMETIME IN THE SAT/SUN
TIME-FRAME. WILL CONT TO GO WITH A DRY FCST ACRS MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT SOME SCHC/CHC POPS ON SAT THRU SUN. LOADED
IN THE LATEST HPC TEMP/DEWPT/WIND DATA...WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION...
KSLK EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVRNITE TONITE AND HAVE A DECENT CHC A
SEEING SOME BR. SOME LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE AS WELL AT KMSS/KMPV
OVRNITE TONITE. SFC WINDS TO BECOME MORE W-NW WITH TIME INTO TONITE
AND EARLY ON WED ACRS THE FA. AFTER A FEW -SHRA MOVING ACRS THE FA
LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...CLDS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACRS MUCH
OF THE FA INTO EARLY ON WED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...MURRAY
AVIATION...MURRAY







   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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References

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