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Expires:200608302115;;408379
FPUS51 KBTV 300715
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-302115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
315 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

.TODAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 
MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS AROUND 50. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 300823
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CDFNT PUSHING SEWRD ACRS NRN NYS ATTM ACPYD BY NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLDNSS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR FORMATION OF SOME AREAS OF
DENSE FOG. WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE RATHER QUICKLY
AS WINDS BECOME NORTH AROUND 10 KTS. FRONT WILL DROP THRU SRN ZONES
DURING MID MORNING...AND THEN PUSH SOUTH OF FA ALLOWING FOR LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY TO NOSE SOUTH INTO FA.
LINGERING LLVL MSTR WILL ALLOW FOR CLDS AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHWRS TDY OVER HIR TRRN ZONES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES
TO GRADUALLY BECOME PRTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WX TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY AS THE CENTER
DRIFTS SEWRD ACRS QUEBEC. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE PERIOD
WITH MILD DAYTIME HIGHS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. LOWS WILL BE IN
40S...EXPECT 30S IN MTN ZONES WHERE SOME ISOLD FROST PSBL. PATCHY
FOG PSBL EACH NIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMO FAVORED MTN/RIVER
VLYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MAD TO EXTENDED PORTION OF FCST ATTM. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND NHC CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ERNESTO WILL TRACK NORTH
INTO WRN PA/NY OVER WEEKEND...AND REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHC OF RAIN TO NORTH COUNTRY SAT PM INTO
SUNDAY...WITH STILL A CHC OF LINGERING SHWRS MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...
SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERN WL BE DISSIPATION OF FOG AT MPV/BTV THIS
MORNING. FIRST...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SECONDARY FRNT NOW ACRS THE
NORTHERN CPV BACK ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS ATTM. THIS FRNT COMBINED
WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KNTS AND SLIGHTLY LWR
DWPTS...SHOULD DECREASE COVERAGE/DENSITY OF FOG BY 10Z AT BTV AND BY
12Z AT MPV. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLR SKIES TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS. MORE FOG WL DEVELOP WEDS NIGHT AFT 06Z AT MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...TABER









FXUS61 KBTV 300105
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
905 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
SFC WAVES ALG BNDRY S OF SNE COASTLINE CONT TO PULL AWAY AND -SHRA
HAVE PRIMARILY EXITED SRN FA. PRTL CLRG TREND BEGAN THIS AFTN IN
NRN FA AND WL CONT ACRS REST OF FA OVRNGT. THERE IS ONE SMALL FLY
IN THE OINTMENT...BEING MID LVL S/W ACCOMPANYING A SLGT SHOT OF CAA
MVG S FM QUEBEC OVRNGT BUT ANY SPRINKLES WL BE SO ISOLATED WE CAN
MONITOR WITH NOWCASTS IF NEEDED.

THEREFORE...IMPRVG CONDS ON UPDATE WITH PATCHY FOG LKLY AGAIN OVRNGT.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR FOR KMSS/KBTV WITH SOME FEW-SCT020-025 WITH VRY
LCLZD AND BRF BKN020-025 FM WEAK BNDRY DROPPING ACRS FA BTWN 04-
08Z. SMLR AT KSLK AND KMPV BUT LGT WNDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WL
ALLOW FOG FORMATION AND LOW CIGS PRIMARILY AFT 06Z WITH LIFR XPCTD.
AT 13Z...VFR CONDS WIDESPREAD FOR REST OF FCST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 218 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY...DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY AND
SRN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW /1006MB/
OVER CENTRAL PA AT 1730Z WILL CONTINUE EWD NEXT 6 HRS...THEN ESEWD
AND OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. SFC LOW IS LOCATED ALONG
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL NJ COAST
THRU CENTRAL PA AND THEN SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION SHIELD EAST/NORTHEAST OF SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL WAA...IS AFFECTING SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY BE SHUNTED SEWD THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS H5 TROUGH OVER QUEBEC DIGS SEWD AND
LOW-LEVEL WAA FORCING SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...IN NRN STREAM...COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH S-CENTRAL
QUEBEC SWWD TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AT 18Z...WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST
AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE MORNING HRS TOMORROW. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLD -RW IN THE MTNS...MAINLY IN VT. OTHERWISE...CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF FA WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE HAD TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WEEKEND PORTION OF EXTENDED
DUE TO TRACK SHIFT OF "ERNESTO" FROM PREV FEW RUNS. OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST NOW TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK INTO WESTERN PA/NY
BY SAT MORN...SO HAVE CHANGED FROM NO POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN MOST
AREAS...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MON AS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK/PLACEMENT AND STILL 4-5
DAYS OUT...SO HAVE NOT GONE WITH ANYTHING OVER HIGH CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/CLDS WITH APPROACH OF SYSTEM WITH SOME
INCR IN TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS IN BY LATE MON INTO TUES. HYDRO
CONCERNS MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF SYSTEM LINGERS TOO LONG BFR MVG
EAST OUT TO SEA.

AVIATION /18Z TUE - 18Z WED/...
FOR KBTV/KMSS BOTH SITES WILL VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS THRU 02Z-03Z. SOME --RW POSSIBLE 00Z-03Z. WINDS
LGT VAR WILL BECM N 5-10KTS AFT 04Z. FOR KMPV/KSLK VFR DOWN TO IFR
AT TIMES THRU 06Z IN LOW CLD DECK. FG WILL DEVELOP AROUND 04Z-06Z
WHICH MAY HAVE VSBY/CEILINGS VLIFR 06Z-10Z. WINDS LGT/VAR BECM N
5-10KTS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW. HIR
TRRN WILL BE OBSCD AT TIMES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








FXUS61 KBTV 291817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
218 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY...DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY AND
SRN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW /1006MB/
OVER CENTRAL PA AT 1730Z WILL CONTINUE EWD NEXT 6 HRS...THEN ESEWD
AND OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. SFC LOW IS LOCATED ALONG
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL NJ COAST
THRU CENTRAL PA AND THEN SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION SHIELD EAST/NORTHEAST OF SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL WAA...IS AFFECTING SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY BE SHUNTED SEWD THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS H5 TROUGH OVER QUEBEC DIGS SEWD AND
LOW-LEVEL WAA FORCING SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...IN NRN STREAM...COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH S-CENTRAL
QUEBEC SWWD TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY AT 18Z...WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST
AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE MORNING HRS TOMORROW. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLD -RW IN THE MTNS...MAINLY IN VT. OTHERWISE...CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF FA WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE HAD TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WEEKEND PORTION OF EXTENDED
DUE TO TRACK SHIFT OF "ERNESTO" FROM PREV FEW RUNS. OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST NOW TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK INTO WESTERN PA/NY
BY SAT MORN...SO HAVE CHANGED FROM NO POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN MOST
AREAS...TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MON AS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK/PLACEMENT AND STILL 4-5
DAYS OUT...SO HAVE NOT GONE WITH ANYTHING OVER HIGH CHANCE AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/CLDS WITH APPROACH OF SYSTEM WITH SOME
INCR IN TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS IN BY LATE MON INTO TUES. HYDRO
CONCERNS MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF SYSTEM LINGERS TOO LONG BFR MVG
EAST OUT TO SEA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUE - 18Z WED/...
FOR KBTV/KMSS BOTH SITES WILL VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS THRU 02Z-03Z. SOME --RW POSSIBLE 00Z-03Z. WINDS
LGT VAR WILL BECM N 5-10KTS AFT 04Z. FOR KMPV/KSLK VFR DOWN TO IFR
AT TIMES THRU 06Z IN LOW CLD DECK. FG WILL DEVELOP AROUND 04Z-06Z
WHICH MAY HAVE VSBY/CEILINGS VLIFR 06Z-10Z. WINDS LGT/VAR BECM N
5-10KTS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW. HIR
TRRN WILL BE OBSCD AT TIMES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN






   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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References

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