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Scott,

I'm going to be headed up to the Rincon Mtns. (Saguaro Nat'l Park East) next
weekend.  Any thoughts on the weather?

Ben

On 9/29/06, Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> Just looking at radar showing heavier moisture exiting the Champlain
> Valley at this time, but with some of the heaviest radar returns seen so
> far with this system moving through the northern Green Mountains.
> Heaviest radar returns are from Jay Peak on the Orleans/Franklin County
> line SW towards Mt Belvidere and then follows the Lamoille/Chittenden
> county line (Mount Mansfield) south to Bolton.  This is likely due to
> orographic enhancement...but what if?
>
> Freezing level is rapidly dropping as the front pushes through with 0C
> line on the GFS and NAM both down to 3,000ft by 7pm tonight...then
> possibly 2,500ft after midnight with strong cold air advection at 5,000ft
> mixing down.  A pocket of -4 to -5C temps show up on the NAM and GFS
> tonight for areas between 4,500ft and 6,500ft.  Saranac Lake, NY at 3pm is
> down to 42F with a stiff NW wind.  What I'm getting at is that if the NAM
> is correct with some upper level cooling between 1pm-7pm today, it would
> be possible for some snow at 4,000ft and higher as the last batch of
> precip swings through.
>
> That is why the radar caught me as interesting as usually I don't see a
> flare up of higher DBZ as moisture is leaving.  Composite radar could be
> scanning up into the 6k ft range or higher over Mansfield and the Spine.
> If the NAM temps were correct right now, the radar reflectivity flare up
> *could* be wet snowflakes down to 4,000ft (also known as bright banding).
> Not much terrain in VT is above that level but it has perked my interest a
> little this afternoon.  I'm sure Mt Marcy in the 'Dacks is at least
> getting rimed or saw a few flakes this afternoon as its highest 500ft is
> in the core of the cold pocket.
>
> If you're around the Adirondacks or northern Green Mountains early
> tomorrow morning, some form of white is possible on the highest elevations
> so keep an eye out.  High relative humidities from the rain today, even
> with dry air advection, should keep fog/clouds around the mtn tops leading
> to freezing fog.
>
> In discussing this matter with Pete Banacos at the BTV NWS office, here's
> his personal take since he is off duty and I wanted to see what he thought
> about rime ice tonight on the summits leading to a clearing/cool Saturday
> morning with foliage below:
>
> "I've become less optimistic about the snow potential in the high
> elevations now that the trough aquires a slight negative tilt and drying
> in its wake seems more pronounced than earlier model solns. Could be some
> rime icing if saturation holds in long enough as you elude to."
>
> -Scott
>
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-- 
Benjamin Kulas





caveat lector

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