I'm going to be headed up to the Rincon Mtns. (Saguaro Nat'l Park East) next weekend.  Any thoughts on the weather?


On 9/29/06, Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
Just looking at radar showing heavier moisture exiting the Champlain
Valley at this time, but with some of the heaviest radar returns seen so
far with this system moving through the northern Green Mountains.
Heaviest radar returns are from Jay Peak on the Orleans/Franklin County
line SW towards Mt Belvidere and then follows the Lamoille/Chittenden
county line (Mount Mansfield) south to Bolton.  This is likely due to
orographic enhancement...but what if?

Freezing level is rapidly dropping as the front pushes through with 0C
line on the GFS and NAM both down to 3,000ft by 7pm tonight...then
possibly 2,500ft after midnight with strong cold air advection at 5,000ft
mixing down.  A pocket of -4 to -5C temps show up on the NAM and GFS
tonight for areas between 4,500ft and 6,500ft.  Saranac Lake, NY at 3pm is
down to 42F with a stiff NW wind.  What I'm getting at is that if the NAM
is correct with some upper level cooling between 1pm-7pm today, it would
be possible for some snow at 4,000ft and higher as the last batch of
precip swings through.

That is why the radar caught me as interesting as usually I don't see a
flare up of higher DBZ as moisture is leaving.  Composite radar could be
scanning up into the 6k ft range or higher over Mansfield and the Spine.
If the NAM temps were correct right now, the radar reflectivity flare up
*could* be wet snowflakes down to 4,000ft (also known as bright banding).
Not much terrain in VT is above that level but it has perked my interest a
little this afternoon.  I'm sure Mt Marcy in the 'Dacks is at least
getting rimed or saw a few flakes this afternoon as its highest 500ft is
in the core of the cold pocket.

If you're around the Adirondacks or northern Green Mountains early
tomorrow morning, some form of white is possible on the highest elevations
so keep an eye out.  High relative humidities from the rain today, even
with dry air advection, should keep fog/clouds around the mtn tops leading
to freezing fog.

In discussing this matter with Pete Banacos at the BTV NWS office, here's
his personal take since he is off duty and I wanted to see what he thought
about rime ice tonight on the summits leading to a clearing/cool Saturday
morning with foliage below:

"I've become less optimistic about the snow potential in the high
elevations now that the trough aquires a slight negative tilt and drying
in its wake seems more pronounced than earlier model solns. Could be some
rime icing if saturation holds in long enough as you elude to."


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Benjamin Kulas

caveat lector
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