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Expires:200610162100;;546153
FPUS51 KBTV 160734
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-162100-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
332 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2006

.TODAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 50S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 160630
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA THRU TONITE...THEN MOVE OUT TO
THE EAST OF THE FA ON TUE/TUE NITE. TROF TO MOVE UP ACRS THE FA BY
WED FROM THE SW.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON TUE AND
TUE NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA AGAIN DURING THE DAY
ON TUE /ESPECIALLY ACRS NY STATE/...THEN LINGER ACRS THE FA THRU WED.
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LVL MSTR
TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA ON TUE...AND INTO TUE NITE AND EARLY ON WED.
PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BASICALLY BE 0.5-1" ON TUE THRU WED.

LOOKS LIKE DRY WX ACRS THE FA THRU TONITE...THEN SOME PCPN EXPECTED
TO START TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACRS THE FAR WRN FA BY LATER IN THE DAY ON TUE.
LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FA ON TUE NITE AND EARLY ON WED STILL LOOK GOOD
AS WELL FOR NOW. PCPN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO -SHRA ON WED AFTERNOON
ACRS THE FA. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M50S-L60S TODAY AND IN THE
M50S-M60S ON TUE. T1MIN TEMPS ARE 30-35F TONITE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
330 AM. FEW TWEAKS TO THE CLD COVER FCST FOR TODAY BASED ON THE
LATEST SAT PIX TRENDS A LIL LATER.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK AT
6000-8000 FT WILL BECOME SCATTERED BTWN 09Z-12Z. SCT-BKN DECK AT
3500-4000 FT AT KSLK WILL ALSO DIMINISH BY 12Z. DURING MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN JUST SCT SC...WITH SOME SCT AC THIS PM AS
WELL. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BTWN 00Z-06Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE S-SW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MURRAY
AVIATION...RJS





FXUS61 KBTV 160033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
833 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
S/W TROF AXIS ROTATING THRU FA ATTM WITH GRDL DRYING/CLRG FOR
OVRNGT INTO MON. PRVS FCST HAD GUD HNDL OF BEC PTLY CLDY AND HAVE
CONTD THAT TREND WITH A SLGT BUMP UP ON MIN TMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CURRENT BKN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME SCATTERED AT 3500-4000 FT AFTER 06Z.
THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS SLK AS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY BROKEN 07-
11Z. SCATTERED DECK 4000-6000FT AFTER 14Z AT ALL SITES...THOUGH
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AFTER 18Z. SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...15 KFT...ALSO TO AFFECT THE AREA AFTER 18Z. WITH SFC
RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDING EAST...WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AT ALL SITES...GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 238 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BULK OF THICK CLD COVER THRU MOST OF CWA ATTM...WITH SOME SUNNY
BREAKS SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST VIS SAT LOOP. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BECM PARTLY CLDY TNGT FOR ALL
AREAS. ENOUGH CLD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE EVENING HRS TO KEEP
TEMPS UP SOME SO WILL KEEP LOW TNGT NEAR MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES OVER CONTROL OF WX FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY W/
REGION SEEING RETURN TO S/SW FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BUMP
HIGHS FOR TOMORROW UP A FEW MORE THAN TDY. SFC RIDGE SLIDES ENE
OVERNGT INTO EARLY TUES MORNING...AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SE. MDLS FAIRLY CLOSE TO TIMING ON START OF LGT RAIN ACROSS THE
CWA...SO WILL TRANSITION PRECIP IN STARTING AT 12Z IN ST LAW
VALLEY/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DACKS...AND WORK IT NE THRU REST OF CWA
DURING THE MORNING HRS. MDLS IN GD AGREEMENT BRINGING HEAVIEST
PORTION OF RAIN LATE TUES THRU WED MORNING...BFR TAPERING TO -RW
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. QPF TOTALS RANGE FROM .75" TO NEAR 1.25"
IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM AS PAST
FEW DAYS PRECIP-FREE OVER CWA...SO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE UPCOMING EVENT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED BY SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE EAST AND MOVING THE LARGE SCALE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL US EAST AS WELL. ON THURS A SURFACE TROF WILL
EXIT THE REGION...HOWEVER HI LOW LEVEL RH AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL
RETAIN CHC POPS DUE TO TERRAIN. BY FRIDAY A VORT MAX ROUNDING THRU
THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
ATTENDANT SFC LOW TO SPREAD MORE RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
SHORTWAVE TROF KICKS MORE TO THE NORTH AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROF
DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROF...THEN IT ALL LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST SAT/SUN.

FOLLOWED HPC POP GUIDANCE THRU THE PERIOD...BUT ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS
DOWN A BIT BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD FOR KBTV...KMSS...KMPV. MVFR THROUGH 08Z AT KSLK.
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REDUCES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION. LOSS OF UPWARD MOTION AND
HIGHER RH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AFT 06Z. SW WINDS 10
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE BY 00Z TONIGHT.
SURFACE GRADIENT SLACKENS ON MONDAY...AND WIND GUSTS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MB








FXUS61 KBTV 151838
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
238 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BULK OF THICK CLD COVER THRU MOST OF CWA ATTM...WITH SOME SUNNY
BREAKS SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST VIS SAT LOOP. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BECM PARTLY CLDY TNGT FOR ALL
AREAS. ENOUGH CLD COVER SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE EVENING HRS TO KEEP
TEMPS UP SOME SO WILL KEEP LOW TNGT NEAR MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES OVER CONTROL OF WX FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY W/
REGION SEEING RETURN TO S/SW FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BUMP
HIGHS FOR TOMORROW UP A FEW MORE THAN TDY. SFC RIDGE SLIDES ENE
OVERNGT INTO EARLY TUES MORNING...AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SE. MDLS FAIRLY CLOSE TO TIMING ON START OF LGT RAIN ACROSS THE
CWA...SO WILL TRANSITION PRECIP IN STARTING AT 12Z IN ST LAW
VALLEY/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DACKS...AND WORK IT NE THRU REST OF CWA
DURING THE MORNING HRS. MDLS IN GD AGREEMENT BRINGING HEAVIEST
PORTION OF RAIN LATE TUES THRU WED MORNING...BFR TAPERING TO -RW
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. QPF TOTALS RANGE FROM .75" TO NEAR 1.25"
IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM AS PAST
FEW DAYS PRECIP-FREE OVER CWA...SO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE UPCOMING EVENT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED BY SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE EAST AND MOVING THE LARGE SCALE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL US EAST AS WELL. ON THURS A SURFACE TROF WILL
EXIT THE REGION...HOWEVER HI LOW LEVEL RH AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL
RETAIN CHC POPS DUE TO TERRAIN. BY FRIDAY A VORT MAX ROUNDING THRU
THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
ATTENDANT SFC LOW TO SPREAD MORE RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
SHORTWAVE TROF KICKS MORE TO THE NORTH AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROF
DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROF...THEN IT ALL LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST SAT/SUN.

FOLLOWED HPC POP GUIDANCE THRU THE PERIOD...BUT ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS
DOWN A BIT BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD FOR KBTV...KMSS...KMPV. MVFR THROUGH 08Z AT KSLK.
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REDUCES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION. LOSS OF UPWARD MOTION AND
HIGHER RH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AFT 06Z. SW WINDS 10
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL DISSIPATE BY 00Z TONIGHT.
SURFACE GRADIENT SLACKENS ON MONDAY...AND WIND GUSTS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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