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Expires:200610152100;;522305
FPUS51 KBTV 150758
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-152100-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
358 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LIGHT
WINDS.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 50S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 150710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA THRU MON NITE...THEN MOVE OUT TO
THE EAST OF THE FA ON TUE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA THRU EARLY
TONITE.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN WK WAA FOR THE REST
OF SHORT-TERM PERIOD. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE
FA ON TUE AFTERNOON. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY THRU EARLY
MON...AND NY STATE BY LATER ON TUE AFTERNOON. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO
BE HI ACRS THE FA OVER THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO
AFFECT THE FA EARLY TODAY AND ON TUE AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA
LOOK TO BE 0.3-0.5" TODAY THRU MON AND 0.5-0.75" ON TUE.

LATEST NAM/WRF BUFR DATA SHOWS SOME LK EFFECT PCPN TO START TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE WRN FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS
ACRS THIS AREA ONLY FOR TODAY. NEXT CHC FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLDS/PCPN
LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME ON TUE AFTERNOON...WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
RETAINED FOR NOW. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S-M50S TODAY AND IN THE
M50S-L60S ON MON. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S-M30S TONITE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY 4 AM.

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VFR ACRS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
THRU 06Z MONDAY...WITH EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ADRNDKS...INCLUDING
KSLK WHERE PREVAILING CIGS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR. LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL
LIFT NORTH INTO KSLK LATER AM/PM BRINGING CHC -SHRASN...BUT VSBYS
GENERALLY ABOVE 5 MILES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCT040-050 TO BECOME
BKN040-050 THIS MORNING...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU
06Z. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE WEST INCR TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
AFTER 00Z.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MURRAY
AVIATION...RJS





FXUS61 KBTV 150152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
953 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
WL ISSUE UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE FIRST PART OF NIGHT. WL ALSO REMOVE
PCPN FM CHAMPLN VLY AND RUT/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WL CONT SLGT CHC PCPN
IN NC/NE VT AS WELL AS ST LAW VLY AND ADIRONDACKS OF NY.

H/5 TROF SWINGING ACRS AREA ATTM ABD EXITING VT LATE TNGT. SFC
ANALYSIS INDCS SFC TROF MOVG ACRS NC/NE VT WITH SCT SHWRS ON RADAR
ATTM.

H/8 00Z ANALYSIS HIGHLITES WNW FLW FM NRN LK MI ACRS LK ONT AND ACRS
OUR FA. BAND OF LK EFFECT PCPN ON RADAR HAS SHFTD S OF OUR AREA FM
NR OSWEGO TO HOFEMEISTER NY ASOCD WITH THIS FLO OF COLD AIR AND IN
AGREEMENT WITH BUFKIT.

WL WORD FCST AS BCMG PRTLY CLDY VLY RGNS AND CLDY IN MTNS OVRNGT.
TEMP FCST LKS GOOD WITH KMSS 37 AND KSLK 34 ALREADY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. CURRENTLY...TROUGH SLOWLY MVG EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
NY...W/ HEAVIEST RAINFALL INTO THE ST LAW VALLEY. ORIENTATION OF
TROUGH MVG THRU WILL PIVOT THIS PRECIP NE INTO QUEBEC. REST OF CWA
WILL SEE SOME PRECIP...MAINLY THRU EARLY EVENING(00Z-02Z)...AS
TROUGH SHOULD BE THRU AREA. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND SYSTEM
WILL KEEP SOME LGT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN. W/ CD AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WILL PUT IN MENTION OF -SW/--SW.
FLOW MAINLY WSW ON SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS NORTH FROM SE U.S.
THIS WILL FORCE ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO STAY NORTH OF BORDER. MDLS
DO HINT AT POSSIBLE WK VORT MVG EAST THRU AREA SUN AFTNOON...SO WILL
THROW IN MENTION OF -RW/--RW...MAINLY FOR THE AFTNOON HRS. FOR MON
INTO EARLY TUES...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF WX OVER THE CWA...W/
S/SW FLOW SETTING UP OVER AREA BY LATE MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST ABV GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT REGION WILL BE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TIMING A BIT OFF
BETWEEN GFS/NAM SO WILL SPLIT THE TWO...AND TRANSITION -RW FROM SW
TO NE THRU AFTNOON HRS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US SHIFTS EAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND ANOTHER FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS AND BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL GFS...SO LEANED TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN
US ATTM...WHICH AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW.

WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...A 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IN SW
FLOW...WITH CHCS FOR RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...AND
BEST SHOT AT A DRY DAY ON THURS. BY LATE THURS INTO FRI THE UPPER
TROF IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE US...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
THRU THE WEEKEND.

ACCEPTED HPC POP GUIDANCE...EXCEPT ADJUSTED TIMING OF END OF PRECIP
WEDS NIGHT. ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS THURS MORNING AND FRI
MORNING...WHEN SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL INHIBIT OVERNIGHT COOLING.

AVIATION...
AREA LAKE EFFECT RAIN MOVED INTO KMSS...THEN AS UPPER LOW CATCHES UP
TO FILL IN. NEVERTHELESS...VFR CIGS AND VIS AS THE RAIN MOVES THRU
WITH BKN-OVC035-040, AND 6SM -RA. RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. VFR BKN TO BECOME VFR SCT LATER TONIGHT AS SFC HTG INDUCED
SC DECK DISSIPATES. MORE VFR CLDS EXPECTED AFT 12Z AS SFC HEATING
FILLS IN THE GAPS WITH MORE CU.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SFH









FXUS61 KBTV 141855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
255 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. CURRENTLY...TROUGH SLOWLY MVG EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
NY...W/ HEAVIEST RAINFALL INTO THE ST LAW VALLEY. ORIENTATION OF
TROUGH MVG THRU WILL PIVOT THIS PRECIP NE INTO QUEBEC. REST OF CWA
WILL SEE SOME PRECIP...MAINLY THRU EARLY EVENING(00Z-02Z)...AS
TROUGH SHOULD BE THRU AREA. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND SYSTEM
WILL KEEP SOME LGT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN. W/ CD AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WILL PUT IN MENTION OF -SW/--SW.
FLOW MAINLY WSW ON SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS NORTH FROM SE U.S.
THIS WILL FORCE ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO STAY NORTH OF BORDER. MDLS
DO HINT AT POSSIBLE WK VORT MVG EAST THRU AREA SUN AFTNOON...SO WILL
THROW IN MENTION OF -RW/--RW...MAINLY FOR THE AFTNOON HRS. FOR MON
INTO EARLY TUES...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF WX OVER THE CWA...W/
S/SW FLOW SETTING UP OVER AREA BY LATE MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST ABV GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO INFLUX OF WARMER AIR. NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT REGION WILL BE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TIMING A BIT OFF
BETWEEN GFS/NAM SO WILL SPLIT THE TWO...AND TRANSITION -RW FROM SW
TO NE THRU AFTNOON HRS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US SHIFTS EAST DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND ANOTHER FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS AND BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL GFS...SO LEANED TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN
US ATTM...WHICH AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW.

WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...A 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IN SW
FLOW...WITH CHCS FOR RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...AND
BEST SHOT AT A DRY DAY ON THURS. BY LATE THURS INTO FRI THE UPPER
TROF IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE US...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
THRU THE WEEKEND.

ACCEPTED HPC POP GUIDANCE...EXCEPT ADJUSTED TIMING OF END OF PRECIP
WEDS NIGHT. ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS THURS MORNING AND FRI
MORNING...WHEN SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL INHIBIT OVERNIGHT COOLING.
&&

.AVIATION...
AREA LAKE EFFECT RAIN MOVED INTO KMSS...THEN AS UPPER LOW CATCHES UP
TO FILL IN. NEVERTHELESS...VFR CIGS AND VIS AS THE RAIN MOVES THRU
WITH BKN-OVC035-040, AND 6SM -RA. RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. VFR BKN TO BECOME VFR SCT LATER TONIGHT AS SFC HTG INDUCED
SC DECK DISSIPATES. MORE VFR CLDS EXPECTED AFT 12Z AS SFC HEATING
FILLS IN THE GAPS WITH MORE CU.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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