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Expires:200610252200;;764996
FPUS51 KBTV 250755
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-252200-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER
355 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2006

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
50 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW OR SLEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET IN THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY.
WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD
WITH LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 250728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND REGION IS IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. CURRENT WSR-88D
MOSAIC SHOWING AREA LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING SOUTH DOWN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.
SFC OBS AND RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL 0.10 INCH OR LESS.

CHCS FOR RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NEXT 24
HRS...TAPERING OFF DURING THE PERIOD. GFS AND NAM BOTH DEPICT ONE
LAST VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW THURS/THURS NIGHT
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN/NORTHEAST VT.

SOLID OVERCAST FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER RH GREATER
THAN 90 PCNT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPS...WITH DAILY SPREAD 10 DEGREES OR LESS BETWEEN MAX/MIN.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LOW LEVELS START TO DRY OUT.

SFC RIDGE NOW FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN IN BRINGING THE IN THE RIDGE.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND LOWERING 850 MB RH TO BELOW 50
PCNT...MEANS FRIDAY WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE
DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...SOME OF ITS ORIGINS CAN BE TRACED TO REMNANTS OF
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE PAUL...TO APPROACH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER .75 TO 1 INCH ON SATURDAY...WITH GOOD
FETCH FROM HIGHER PWATS OVER THE ATLANTIC. STORM SYSTEM FOLLOWS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...THEN DUMBELLS NORTH
QUICKLY AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES ON SATURDAY...SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD PRECLUDE HIGH
RAINFALL TOTALS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS IF IT
DECIDES TO SLOW DOWN.

REST OF THE WEEKEND IS SPENT WITH ANOTHER FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US
TROUGH...WITH UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF TO THE NORTH IN QUEBEC. SIMILAR
SETUP TO PRESENT...WITH NORTH TO NW FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEADING TO CONTINUING LIGHT UPSLOPE AIDED PRECIP.

END OF FCST PERIOD FINDS RISING HEIGHTS AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
KBTV...MVFR DUE TO CIGS.
KMSS...MVFR DUE TO CIGS.
KSLK...IFR/MVFR DUE TO CIGS VSBY AND SHSN.
KMPV...MVFR/IFR DUE TO CIGS VSBY SHRASN.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED 06Z-06Z WITH PERSISTENT MOIST NW FLOW CAUSING
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN SIDE OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. CIGS GENERALLY 015-025 WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD. SOME TEMPO VFR
BUT DOMINANT MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH CONDENSATION LEVELS NOT MAKING
IT ABOVE OVC025. IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SN OR RASN ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE WNW-NW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON









FXUS61 KBTV 250112
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
912 PM EDT TUE OCT 24 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE 500MB LOW. BULK OF
PRECIP HAS BEEN ON THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...SO INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY THERE. CURRENT SURFACE OBS INDICATING THAT TEMPS IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE AT OR ABOVE WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. WITH LOWS LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEY...WARMED MIN TEMPS THERE FROM LOWER
TO MID 30S FOR TONIGHT. WITH INCREASE IN MIN TEMPS...ALSO
DOWNPLAYED THE CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIP IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND MERELY MENTIONED RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT
TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...SO NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 246 PM EDT TUE OCT 24 2006/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...ACTIVE FLOW ACRS NOAM WITH THE NE CONUS INCLDG FA
AWAITING YET ANTHR PSBL POTENT COASTAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK/WKND.

CRNTLY...DEEP TROF ACRS ERN CONUS WITH CLOSED 5H LOW ACRS ME THAT
WL SLOWLY LIFT/SPIN AWAY FM FA THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. MINOR S/W AND
VORTS WITH VARYING DEPTHS OF LLVL MOIST AND LIFT WL BRG ABT CHC
-SHRA/-SHSN THRU WED AND PSBLY ISOLD MTNS THU.

MEANWHILE...S/W MVG INTO PAC NW WL MV DROP SE INTO CENT/SRN ROCKIES
WITH LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS LATE WED/THU AND INTERACT WITH MOIST FM
REMNANTS OF PAUL.

THEREAFTER...THIS SYSTEM SLIDES E INTO APPLACHIANS FRI WITH ANTHR
NRN STREAM S/W AND DEEPENING NE NOAM TROF DROPPING INTO ERN CANADA/
NE CONUS TO PTNLLY PHASE WITH ABV MNTD SYSTEM FRI NGT/SAT FOR DVLPG
STG COASTAL.

INITIALLY...LOOKS COOL AND WET BUT COLD AIR ON BACKSIDE CUD BRG
SOME RA TO SHSN CHGOVR.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TNGT: 5H LOW ACRS ME WITH S/W TROF ROTATING ACRS FA. ACTVTY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS ONTARIO/GRT LAKES YDY WITH 5H COLD POOL SLGTLY MILDER
AND STRENGTH OF S/W AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE LIMITED.

WED/WED NGT: UPR LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE AND SLGT REPRIEVE (ALTHOUGH
NOT MUCH ACTVTY) IN THE MRNG WITH ANTHR S/W DROPPING ACRS VT DRG
AFTN/EVE FOR PSBL MORE ORGANIZED ACTVTY. HWVR...BY THIS POINT IT
BCMS MORE OF AN UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE FCST AS MOISTURE BCMS LESS...LESS
AND FVRD MTNS/UPSLOPE HAVE THE BEST CHC.

THU: ECMWF HAD BETTER HNDL OF TIMING YDY AND TIMING HAS SLOWED UP A
BIT WITH FA STL BEING INFLUENCED BY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MTN
LOCALES ONLY FEELING RESIDUAL IMPACT WITH INCRSG SS ELSEWHERE.

THU NGT/FRI: THE LONG AWAITED RIDGING...DRYING OCCURING DRG THIS PD
WITH DECENT AMT OF SS BUT WITH DECENT INVERSION THAT MAY PREVENT AS
MUCH WRMG FRI AS 8H TMPS WUD INDICATE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHIFT IN TIMING OF PRECIP APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. CURRENT
MDL RUNS EXTEND SFC RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL FORCE COMBINED SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS TO TAKE A MORE SE
TRACK...BFR LIFTING NORTH ON SATURDAY. BIT OF MDL DISCREP AS TO
WHETHER SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG COAST...WHICH WOULD IMPACT
TIMING OF CD AIR INTO AREA ON TAIL-END OF EVENT. WENT WITH A COMBO
OF GFS/ECMWF...WHICH WILL SHIFT ARRIVAL ABOUT 24 HRS INTO THE CWA.
OTHER ISSUE WITH SYSTEM ARRIVAL WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STORNG WINDS
IN HIR ELEV. GFS/ECMWF MDL 850 MB SE WINDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR 55-65KTS ON SAT 12Z-18Z AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
SHIFTS. SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY
USHERING COLDER AIR ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TRANSITION
TO -SW SATURDAY NGT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIR TRRN. WILL ALSO HAVE THIS
IN FOR SUN INTO TUESDAY...AS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT HIR ELEVATIONS TOWARDS END OF THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...
ALL SITES MAINLY MVFR COND THRU MUCH OF PERIOD W/ CEILING BLW 3KFT
AND VSBY REDUCED BY SW/RW TO AROUND 4-5SM. COND WILL VARY AT TIMES
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR...ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO LOW CEILINGS
BLW OVC010 AND VSBY W/ -SW. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS W/ SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT TIMES. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MB










FXUS61 KBTV 241846
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
246 PM EDT TUE OCT 24 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...ACTIVE FLOW ACRS NOAM WITH THE NE CONUS INCLDG FA
AWAITING YET ANTHR PSBL POTENT COASTAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK/WKND.

CRNTLY...DEEP TROF ACRS ERN CONUS WITH CLOSED 5H LOW ACRS ME THAT
WL SLOWLY LIFT/SPIN AWAY FM FA THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. MINOR S/W AND
VORTS WITH VARYING DEPTHS OF LLVL MOIST AND LIFT WL BRG ABT CHC
-SHRA/-SHSN THRU WED AND PSBLY ISOLD MTNS THU.

MEANWHILE...S/W MVG INTO PAC NW WL MV DROP SE INTO CENT/SRN ROCKIES
WITH LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS LATE WED/THU AND INTERACT WITH MOIST FM
REMNANTS OF PAUL.

THEREAFTER...THIS SYSTEM SLIDES E INTO APPLACHIANS FRI WITH ANTHR
NRN STREAM S/W AND DEEPENING NE NOAM TROF DROPPING INTO ERN CANADA/
NE CONUS TO PTNLLY PHASE WITH ABV MNTD SYSTEM FRI NGT/SAT FOR DVLPG
STG COASTAL.

INITIALLY...LOOKS COOL AND WET BUT COLD AIR ON BACKSIDE CUD BRG
SOME RA TO SHSN CHGOVR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TNGT: 5H LOW ACRS ME WITH S/W TROF ROTATING ACRS FA. ACTVTY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS ONTARIO/GRT LAKES YDY WITH 5H COLD POOL SLGTLY MILDER
AND STRENGTH OF S/W AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE LIMITED.

WED/WED NGT: UPR LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE AND SLGT REPRIEVE (ALTHOUGH
NOT MUCH ACTVTY) IN THE MRNG WITH ANTHR S/W DROPPING ACRS VT DRG
AFTN/EVE FOR PSBL MORE ORGANIZED ACTVTY. HWVR...BY THIS POINT IT
BCMS MORE OF AN UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE FCST AS MOISTURE BCMS LESS...LESS
AND FVRD MTNS/UPSLOPE HAVE THE BEST CHC.

THU: ECMWF HAD BETTER HNDL OF TIMING YDY AND TIMING HAS SLOWED UP A
BIT WITH FA STL BEING INFLUENCED BY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MTN
LOCALES ONLY FEELING RESIDUAL IMPACT WITH INCRSG SS ELSEWHERE.

THU NGT/FRI: THE LONG AWAITED RIDGING...DRYING OCCURING DRG THIS PD
WITH DECENT AMT OF SS BUT WITH DECENT INVERSION THAT MAY PREVENT AS
MUCH WRMG FRI AS 8H TMPS WUD INDICATE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHIFT IN TIMING OF PRECIP APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. CURRENT
MDL RUNS EXTEND SFC RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL FORCE COMBINED SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS TO TAKE A MORE SE
TRACK...BFR LIFTING NORTH ON SATURDAY. BIT OF MDL DISCREP AS TO
WHETHER SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG COAST...WHICH WOULD IMPACT
TIMING OF CD AIR INTO AREA ON TAIL-END OF EVENT. WENT WITH A COMBO
OF GFS/ECMWF...WHICH WILL SHIFT ARRIVAL ABOUT 24 HRS INTO THE CWA.
OTHER ISSUE WITH SYSTEM ARRIVAL WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STORNG WINDS
IN HIR ELEV. GFS/ECMWF MDL 850 MB SE WINDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR 55-65KTS ON SAT 12Z-18Z AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
SHIFTS. SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY
USHERING COLDER AIR ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TRANSITION
TO -SW SATURDAY NGT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIR TRRN. WILL ALSO HAVE THIS
IN FOR SUN INTO TUESDAY...AS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT HIR ELEVATIONS TOWARDS END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES MAINLY MVFR COND THRU MUCH OF PERIOD W/ CEILING BLW 3KFT
AND VSBY REDUCED BY SW/RW TO AROUND 4-5SM. COND WILL VARY AT TIMES
DOWN TO IFR/LIFR...ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO LOW CEILINGS
BLW OVC010 AND VSBY W/ -SW. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS W/ SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT TIMES. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN







   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

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References

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