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On Mon, 23 Oct 2006 18:58:42 -0400, Jonathan S. Shefftz <[log in to unmask]>
wrote:

>My beta is two-days old (i.e., Saturday), but I suggest sticking to the
>Timberline area -- based on both this past weekend and Nov '03, the main
>part of the mtn seems to get more wind, and also has more open water bars.
>

My bet is Timberline doesn't have any snow right now.  Mansfield stake at
3,800ft is at 4" and while early season can be a bit funky with reported
snow totals, I'd say its probably correct.  I personally liked going up to
the top of Vista and hugging the trees on some trail that goes out and
around back to the saddle area.  But that was last October and there was 24
inches instead of 4.  Look for accumulating snow Tuesday evening through
Wednesday but I don't think I'm going to be able to give a confident
forecast on snowfall amounts.  Lots of factors to consider, especially time
of year (don't take Friday's snowfall to the valley as an indicator since it
was caused by extreme dynamics aloft with a very strong 500mb vort max
passing overhead).

My best guess (it is a guess) stands at 4-8" from MRG/SB to Jay,
respectively, though I fear that might be 2" too high depending on how you
measure the snowfall.  Long duration with an October day and borderline
boundary layer temps inbetween means it could snow 8" if you measured and
add it up every 6hrs (like NWS does) over a 30 hour period but there's never
more than 4-5" on the ground at any given time.  That's my biggest problem
with snowfall measurements is that the NWS measures every 6 hours then wipes
the board clean and adds them up.  They also measure every hour and wipe
that clean as well.  In marginal situations, you can have 1"/hr reported for
6 hours straight and end up with a 2-4" in the books.

Anyway, I like to give forecasts for what will be on the ground when all is
said and done; it makes the most sense and when most of us see how much snow
fell in a storm, at the end we walk outside and stick a ruler in the snow
instead of adding up intervals.

-Scott

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