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On Tue, 24 Oct 2006 18:39:18 -0400, Rob Urwin <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

>Hurricane Paul and it's remnants will figure large in how things shake
>out, but Sugarloaf looks to be ground zero for a late October dumping.
> Listers may remember that past few seasons have dropped some big
>storms on Maine at this time of year.
>
>Freezing level during the event is a problem right now.  I expect
>things will become more clear in the next couple days as Paul's energy
>comes into the continental US and the models get better upper-air data
>for it.
>
>Scott - any thoughts?

This system has been my new focus in the last 24 hours and needless to 
say, I think the 12z GFS is garbage.  The GFS has had no consistency 
whatsoever in the last two days with the weekend system though the EURO 
has been consistently tracking the low up the St. Lawrence River Valley 
bringing a period of warm air advection snows to the NE Kingdom of VT, a 
good chunk of NH, and the mountains in Maine...with Sugarloaf being the 
last place to change to liquid if it does at all.  Might be a heavy wet 
snowfall that ends as light rain per the Euro at Sugarloaf.

Wind will be a major problem with the system as well...the 12z EURO has a 
150kt upper level jet streak moving up the coastal plain into New England 
which would give way to explosive cyclogensis over the Ohio Valley.  My 
reasoning for taking an inland track right now is consistency but also 
Hurricane Paul's added moisture over the southern midwest would add latent 
heat sparking a more intense senario...sharper H5 trough tugging the 
surface low northward instead of east then north.  I also don't get how 
the GFS puts the surface low so far east with the H5 trough still holding 
back over the Ohio Valley.  Also, a quick look at the upper air data shows 
the cold air wouldn't come in all at once behind the system but would be a 
step-down process in the following 2 days post-storm as the GFS has two 
jet streaks with one coming up the coast and another diving through the 
Great Lakes.  The second jet streak stops the southward progression of 
deep cold air (though low level cold air could pour in leading to a 
rain/sleet senario)...which would mitigate the chance for a rain to heavy 
snow situation.

However, like you said Rob, the next 36 hours will be critical once data 
becomes more defined.  A faster solution is what we want by allowing the 
thing to truck eastward before moving northward.  If we can get the H5 
trough far enough east, and quickly, the baroclinic zone along the east 
coast could be strong enough to spark secondary development off the 
coast.  The slower senario allows the east coast to be flooded with milder 
air, decreasing the strength of the baroclinic zone.

Will have to wait and see...though if this thing does end up off the coast 
I agree that Sugarloaf would be ground zero.  This pattern is already more 
exciting than I remember last January and February being.

-Scott

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