I'll want to put out an official forecast later today once the midday model
data is completely available but...for who knows what reason the NWS in
Burlington took down their Special Weather Statement; do not let it fool
you.  I've been running down the list of criteria for a major upslope
snowstorm (heavy snow and wind in mtns with flurries or light snow showers
valleys) and everything checks out.

1) Strong low in the Canadian maritimes?  Yep and the GFS, NAM, and Canadian
have a monster low in the textbook position just to the NW of Maine.  With
that said, someone up in the maritimes is going to get mauled for up to two
days straight. 

2) H85 winds in excess of 25kts?  Yes, in fact they are 30 to 50kts
throughout most of the event.  Extraction data for Burlington is showing
surface winds out of the WNW sustained at 20mph, gusting to 35mph...while at
4,500ft over Burlington the winds are out of the NW between 40-50mph for
most of the event  with the GFS actually showing hurricane force winds
across the summits on Saturday evening just after sun-down.

3) Duration of 12 hours or longer?  The maritime low bombs out and cuts off
from the jet stream (classic scenario) while the atmosphere becomes
vertically stacked with winds coming out of the WNW or NW from the surface
to nearly 30,000ft.  Conditions appear favorable for up to 18 hours.

4) Cold air advection and moisture?  Check.  At the surface temps hold
steady during Saturday or even fall while at 4,500ft we go from -10C to -20C
on Saturday.  

Cold air being forced over the Green Mountains at 40mph with moisture in
there as well...for 12-18 hours should bring a healthy dump.  Liquid amounts
are around .75" from Jay to Mansfield with .25" from Killington to .5" at
I-89, considering fluff factor with these storms (feathers) I have a feeling
I know what'll happen but will play it safe now and say there's a very good
chance for 6"+ from SB/MRG northward.  

Lift holds due to wind appear likely across much of central and northern New
England on Saturday.  Many of you know the drill with these things by now...


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit