Scott -- your forecasts are absolutely da BOMB!! KUDOS!!!
Thanks (in part) to your timeliness and astuteness, my family and I planned and successfully executed one of the most joyous, wonderful, and FABULOUS three days EVER in the Green Mountains of Vermont...there was one magical, mystical and powder-filled day (Friday) at MRG, then two stupendous, fun-filled weekend days at Stowe.
Most noteworthy, my children (daughter-8 & son-10) got to personally experience their first (and last) rides on the "old single chair," and I got to witness my son skiing down truly challenging terrain -- Cat Bowl, Canyon, Liftline, Hayride, etc. My last run of the season yesterday, with my son Brian hot on my heels, was indeed memorable--Nosedive (lots of lightly tracked, fluffy waves on the right side), then Midway to National (tons of soft bumps!) all the way to the parking lot!
Rarely does information, especially a well-time and accurate weather forecast, hold such consequence as planning a trip to the north country. As some of you know, about three weeks ago I conveyed my unbridled enthusiasm for heading up for the long Easter Weekend for some sunny spring skiing and a late corn harvest. To my shragrine, the calendar and responsibilities at home in Connecticut prohibited my being able to attend what would have been my first Partee on March 31st. Then, as the 10-day weather forecasts were formulated and disemminated, Easter appeared to be a total icy waste at the end of what going be a classic thaw/rain/freeze-over cycle that I did not relish. As of last Tuesday afternoon, I was leaning AGAINST making the trip north. A decision to confirm our regular dog sitter had to be made by Tuesday evening -- a BIG deal as we have seven Welsh Corgis -- as well decisions as to where to go, where to stay, etc., etc.
Then it happened...Scott Braaten finally weighed in with his usual well-informed prognostications...reiterated herewith without editing:
Post #1...Tuesday, April 3 @ 5:57 pm
>Will try and post later, sorry for being absent the last week but something
>personal came up. I just started looking at this earlier and my gut says
>4-8" above 1,500ft but I'll need to really start to nail down the elevation
>snow levels later. Valleys up to 4". This is through Thurs AM then
>orographic/upslope snowfall continues late in the week and could double the
>mtn snowfall by the weekend.
Post #2...Tuesday, April 3 @ 6:34 pm
>I'm very impressed with what could happen after the initial moderate
>snowfall event tomorrow night...meaning this does appear to be another
>system to bring foot plus snows to much of the Green mountain spine.
>Thursday and Friday a vertically stacked low will be just north of us in
>Canada and a WSW wind flow aloft will be bringing plenty of moisture from
>the Great Lakes region to mix with air from the maritime region north of the
>low. This will all converge over the north country with winds in excess of
>the critical upslope values. Moisture/RH looks over 90% for quite a while
>across the higher elevations and up to 7K-9K foot range. Temps are cold
>between -10C and -18C across the H85 region leading me to believe we get
>some big aggregates to fall off and on for a couple days. Not sure how the
>April sun will factor in during the daytime, but it will increase the
>instability. Could be something like very heavy snow showers bringing a
>quick 1-3"/hr snows then just wet, melting flurries for while before the
>next heavy snow shower.
>Either way, I'd think 1 (base)-2 (tops) feet by Saturday morning from SB/MRG
>northward and if the critical temp thicknesses are cold enough to support
>ratios over 10:1, we could be looking at a really big fall above 3,000ft.
Fortuitous commentary to be sure, which helped lead to one of the BEST decisions I have ever made in my life!! On the basis of the above (and amplified by Josh Fox's final blog entry), we booked what is sure to become in our family a LEGENDARY three-day excursion to MRG and Stowe...the conditions of which, as everyone well know, literally bordered on EPIC, as far as this time of the year in the Green Mountains go.
THANKS AGAIN SCOTT, for your timely and expert forecasting!!!
(I owe you a reeb sometime!)
John M. Babyak President / CEO WOLVERINE INVESTMENTS 200 Pequot Avenue, 2nd Floor Southport, CT 06890 1-800-398-0038 www.wolverineinvest.com
To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html