In my mind, the pattern changed around xmas, when we got our first rain.  Although we did have a couple of very cold days, they were surrounded by most of January being above average.

On Feb 5, 2008 11:16 AM, Miguel Naughton <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
Roger,

>Dear weather gurugeeks,

That's not me, but I am a huge believer in the 6-8 week cycle thing.

>By my count, we are about 5 weeks into a warmer than normal weather
>pattern.

I'm not so sure that your count is right.  For sure, we have had
several weeks of Pacific glop and the Utards are gloating.  But when did
this start?  It's true that there was a very big warmup around January 7.
But then we experienced our coldest weather of the season around Jan 20,
before collapsing into the slop.  So it's not clear to me if the
pattern changed around January 7 or January 20.  Also, waves frequently
go longer than 6 weeks.

To conclude, from my vantage point, it may be a while before we switch
patterns.  Of course, the good news is that this is the perfect time for
a Pacific pattern, because it's still possible to ski.  March seems to
be looking good, but I dunno about Feb.

PS You don't have to believe me, I am completely unqualified.

Mig

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