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Right now, models are coming into agreement on the placement of some of the
upper level features...which leads to some confidence in the overall
synoptic output.  Now, this storm is only at 3-4 days lead time but the
models are really just beginning to get a handle on all the ingredients for
this storm...as all of this upper level energy enters a more data-rich
environment across western N.America.

Surface Low looks to track from the Ohio Valley, ENE south of Albany to just
near Boston.  Given the seasonal trend to go further northwest, I am
expecting this to track somewhere across BTV's county warning
area....meaning we'll have to deal with sleet, at least in the
southern/central areas.

Overall, precipitation amounts on the GFS, EURO, and Canadian all point
towards a moderate storm; QPF amounts are between .35-.75 so I'm leaning
towards a 4-8" snowfall on Tuesday during the day.

Will keep a few updates coming but this is our next winter storm.

-Scott

The BTV HWO from this morning...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRESENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH
SLEET AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. WHILE IT IS TOO SOON TO PREDICT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LOW TRACK AT
THIS TIME RANGE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MODERATE SNOW STORM
THAT WOULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NWS FORECASTS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

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