Its about time for a little weather update to let everyone know I do not
think we are done yet.  The big thing that has been missing this winter is
the negative NAO, which has been allowing storms to truck right up through
the northeast or west of the northeast.  The NAO is currently neutral to
slightly negative, though not the classic big -NAO that should develop by
next weekend.  Thus, we'll have another mixed precipitation event during the
middle of this week.  I've pretty much written this storm off as a snow/ice
to rain situation...though our seasonal tendency to warm the boundary layer
after mid-March means ice is really only a concern in the northeast kingdom
of Vermont.  It looks like elevation snow to rain with valley rain changing
to heavier valley rain.  

But we'll still have a diesel snowpack so the impact from this system will
mainly be glaciating the pack even more...I can't even imagine that amount
of liquid in the 8-10 foot natural snowpack under the Kitchen Wall at Stowe.
 My attention has already been drawn to the March 24-26 time frame but in
the larger picture, I expect something big will happen in the last week of
March or first week of April if this true -NAO materializes.  The NCEP
ensembles say yes, it will happen and we might even get the +PNA for a true
ridge-west trough-east pattern.

The past couple of days, a few of the long range models have been showing
something big in the March 24-26 time frame.  More times than I care to
remember this season, the long range models have indicated something
happening along the east coast in the day 7 to day 10 range.  However, these
events have almost exclusively tracked through the Ohio Valley burying us in
ice or rain.  I do believe this time around will be different with a -NAO as
it is so crucial to us getting big snows.

Here's the GFS valid a week from Monday with a big storm organizing in the
deep south.  In later panels, this storm heads up the east coast in a near
perfect track for big snows here.  Confluence across Quebec from that low
near Hudson Bay would force any storm east of where they've been tracking
for the last 2 months.

The real wx nrop for the day is the European/ECMWF valid a week from
Tuesday...interestingly enough the two major long range models are sniffing
out the pattern and seeing something that is causing them to blow up a storm
in about a week:
That's an extreme solution that it hurts to almost speculate on.  At face
value this is a March 1993 storm as that is a three height-contour closed
500mb low before this thing even gets to the which point it
slowly crawls up the coast with prodigious amounts of snow over the interior.

The 8-10 day ensemble means have lower than normal heights along the east
coast, also arguing for more of a true nor'easter.  For the naysayers, maybe
nothing happens at all but I really think the NAO has been the missing link.  

Winter's not done yet and with the -NAO forecasted by the ensembles to
continue into April, we may go out with a bang.


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