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On Thu, 2 Oct 2008 10:20:24 -0400, Sam Lozier <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

>looks like NWS is being a little more pessimistic
>
>http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=BTV&llon=-73.029583&rlon=-72.269583&tlat=44.975417&blat=44.217917&smap=1&mp=0&map.x=94&map.y=140
>
>is there still a chance of some white stuff sticking tonight?

This is a tough call...because I know for you guys the difference between a
trace of wet flakes and even an inch on the upper Toll Road, is the
difference between turns and no turns.  Trace-2" is still the forecast for
the northern summits of the Green Mountains but I'm leaning closer towards
the trace side of things.

I still think Mansfield and some of the highest summits will be riming
tonight from 3,800ft on up, based on progged cloud deck and freezing levels.
 Whether or not we get accumulating snow will depend on if we can realize
any precipitation tonight over the peaks.  H85 temps will be sub-zero and
thicknesses fall below the critical 540dm...leading me to believe any precip
that falls tonight will be in the form of flakes above 3,000ft.    

Another shortwave and front is moving across upstate NY right now from
Massena to Buffalo, and should plow through here in the next few hours.  Its
easily seen on WV and IR presentations, and is sparking some showers off
Lake Ontario into the Adirondacks.  Behind this front is our cold air aloft.
 The problem is, upstream I'm not seeing much in the way of precipitation
(except some Lake Effect in the upper GL region)...so the chances for
snowfall tonight rest on whether or not Lake Ontario fires up enough to
stretch it eastward into VT.  

Warm, wet ground, 32-34F temps, and lighter/showery precipitation goes
against appreciable accumulation.  However, I'll be watching the radar this
evening to see what happens after this shortwave rolls through this afternoon.

I'll get another post out near dinner-time for you guys.

-Scott 

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