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Afternoon discussion from NWS Albany...sums it up quite nicely.  Also need
to add the 18z NAM has finally left the GFS and joined the Global Models
leaving the GFS to be the sole outlier...I'll have more tomorrow on this
storm.  Keep your fingers crossed.

"PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TUESDAY FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL OR OCEAN LOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC AND GREAT
LAKES REGION.

THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE AN OCEAN LOW FORMING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD ON TUE WITH THE BEST
BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL OFF THE COAST.  PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
STILL PIVOT THROUGH THE TROUGH PRODUCING SCT -SHRA/-SHSN. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE.  INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN THE
TROUGH DO NOT APPEAR TO PHASE.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF AND CAN GGEM ARE STILL IMPLYING A SFC LOW
WILL FORM NEAR CAPE COD/GULF OF MAINE 12Z TUE WITH A DEFORMATION
ZONE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN IMPACTING THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES. CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES
WOULD INDICATE SOME NOTICEABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  THE H500 CUTOFF
LOW SPINS RIGHT OVER NRN NY WITH SCT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION THROUGH WED. WE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
FOR TUE TO WED WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...GLOBAL ENSEMBLES VS. THE 12Z ECMWF AND CAN GGEM."

-Scott

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