Roger... solid forecast.  I like the typical La Nina pattern of southwest flow 
events, and tight thermal gradient (with regard to departures) somewhere in 
southern New England or northern Mid-Atlantic.  La Ninas tend to favor those 
locations in the higher latitudes, so the northern tier is looking pretty good this 
season...from Pacific NW through NNE.  Unlike last season, the jet stream 
should remain pretty far north in the east (with a decent SE ridge) and my 
fear is an over-abundance of mixed precipitation events.  I also think there's a 
higher than normal chance of ice storms this winter... with a tight thermal 
gradient it won't take much for surface arctic air to the north to sneak south 
under warmer air being pumped in on the WSW flow aloft.  

I don't really have any idea on what to expect from the NAO/AO, but given the 
recent trend in the NAO (negative something like 25 of the last 30 months) I 
think we will be ok.


On Thu, 28 Oct 2010 16:33:13 -0400, Roger R. Hill 
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:

>Yes basically we will still see lots of snow but on occasion some warmer
>events will skew the averages - meaning there will likely be some snow to
>sleet/freezing rain to rain scenarios into the month of February with a
>zonal (warmer than normal for us) flow. When the La Nina wanes will get
>colder in March and stormy much like December is expected to be.
>In essence great snow in December - lots of lake effect storms for the
>northern Greens especially, then kind of sucky conditions  mid winter with
>colder weather and persistent snows last part of winter. Champlain Valley
>may loose their snow pack mid winter, but mountains to get low to moderate
>powder days frequent lake effect clipper system and lots of wind.
>Much of this is based on a strong to moderate La Nina and sea surface temps
>in the Pacific colder than usual and adjacent North Atlantic warmer than
>usual. That my and many other guesses at this point. To be refined as we go
>a long of course.
>AO,NAO to have subtle effects but not like big mid Atlantic honkers last
>year up here, but lots of little system that add up.

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