Nice Scott!

You fearing temps at all? I've noticed a slight warming trend in the GFS (which fits the general pattern all mid-Sept.to mid-Oct.) run to run... definitely something to keep an eye on either way! 

Each signal seems to be a bit colder recently :D

G

On Sat, Oct 15, 2011 at 7:55 PM, John Bonin <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

SCOTT!!!!!!!

YOU'RE THE BEST!!!!

YOU'RE BACK!!!!!!

The season is finally beginning.

I'm so happy now.

SNOW.

Oh, finally.........

John Bonin
[log in to unmask]

On Oct 15, 2011 1:22 PM, "Scott Braaten" <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
Ok, we are getting into mid-October... it is time for Mother Nature to step
up and bring us some snow.  I've got some good feelings towards the end of
October but before that there's a shot of at least a light snowfall later
this week.

First off... very small chance of snow on the summits of northern 'Dacks and
northern Greens late tonight/early tomorrow morning, and then again on
Monday.  Snow levels will be very high up near 4,000ft so I'm not holding my
breath.  Maybe the radio towers and Chin on Mansfield will be rimed up or
dusted but aside from that we'll have to wait till later this week.

In the middle of the week a storm system will move up the Appalachians with
secondary cyclogenesis occurring just off the eastern seaboard in New
England.  This secondary storm should deepen quickly through the Gulf of
Maine and into the Canadian maritimes, dragging cold air from NW to SE
across the northeast and New England.  This would happen sometime on
Wednesday into Thursday.

This push of cold air associated with the upper level trough, could bring
the first lake effect and upslope snows to the higher terrain from northern
VT southwest through NY state, and down the Appalachian spine in PA and WV.
 Up here in the Greens... the H85 wind streamlines look extremely favorable
with the classic NW flow.  Moisture from the storm in the Maritimes slowly
wraps its way back down into the area and would be forced out of the sky by
these NW winds upsloping into the usual suspects of the northern shelf of
the 'Dacks and Greens.

Of course, this is still 5-6 days away but its the first thing that has
gotten my attention this fall.  Any snow would fall on Thursday, maybe
lingering into Friday morning.  We will have to see how this evolves over
the next several days.

-Scott

ps: Late in October there looks to be signals for an east coast trough and
some storminess.  That'll be the next chance after later this week.

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