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not to mention that the ground beneath was snowless and relatively warm

On Mon, Apr 16, 2012 at 9:50 AM, Greg Petrics <[log in to unmask]>wrote:

> I agree on all counts Scott, except one:
>
> On Mon, Apr 16, 2012 at 9:39 AM, Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]>
> wrote:
> >   The law of averages says it had to happen soon.
>
> I presume you actually mean The Central Limit Theorem, and if so, said
> theorem actually only proves that the non-occurrence of a below
> average snowfall year becomes an increasingly unlikely event as time
> goes on and we hypothetically continue to have above average snowfall
> years.
>
> On Mon, Apr 16, 2012 at 9:39 AM, Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]>
> wrote:
> > On Sun, 15 Apr 2012 19:27:27 -0400, Skip King <
> [log in to unmask]>
> >
> >>But... the problem is that it lacked mass - compounded by the fact that
> >>there was nothing in that snowpack to interrupt the flow of melted water
> >>through air channels in the snow down to .. the rivers.
> >>
> >>I've seen similar "phenomena" over the years.  First time I did I
> >>wondered, much as you do now, how it happened,  I asked a few dudes
> >>who'd know.  You know a few dudes who'd know. They'll probably tell you
> >>same as me.  Physics hasn't changed that much since then.
> >>
> >>And meantime, I rather suspect you're dealing with a certain amount of
> >>(justifiable) wishful thinking.  Don't feel bad about that, /mi amigo./
> >>Whole lotta wishful thinking going on around skiing these days.. on both
> >>the guest and management side.  Tough year for the biz... and those who
> >>love it.  But hey, you can count on one like this every 7 to 10 years
> >>locally and every 20 to 30 years nationally, and if you stay in the
> >>skibiz, Scott, you'll see at least one more of these before you retire.
> >
> > You are right on the wishful thinking clouding my judgement.  I did have
> a similar
> > discussion back in March with the senior hydrologist at BTV...Greg
> Hanson was harping on
> > the importance of well developed ice layers in the snowpack as a
> mechanism to slow
> > melt.  It also causes some interesting snow/water measurements because
> you can get
> > liquid to pool in some areas on the snowpack and not others based on the
> strength of the
> > crusts in the snowpack.  So as you were saying, Skip, with nothing to
> stop or slow the
> > movement of free water in the snowpack, it just continues to melt itself
> out.  Wishful
> > thinking can't even stop it haha.
> >
> > And regarding the poor snow season...myself and some mountain operations
> folks were
> > discussing way back in December how we are due for a poor season and
> sort of accepted
> > that fact a while ago.  The law of averages says it had to happen soon.
>  We plotted every
> > year back to 2000-2001 on the Stake graph, and the vast majority are
> waaaay above the
> > average on the whole, so a clunker was bound to happen.  I just fear
> that we are still due
> > for a few clunkers in the near future to balance out the ridiculous
> snowfall we've been
> > seeing lately.  Even BTV before this winter was averaging 1-2 feet more
> per winter in the
> > 2000s than they did in the 70s, 80s, and 90s.
> >
> > -Scott
> >
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>
>
> --
> "I'm a simple man, Hobbes."
> "You?? Yesterday you wanted a nuclear powered car that could turn into
> a jet with laser-guided heat-seeking missiles!"
> "I'm a simple man with complex tastes."
>
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