not to mention that the ground beneath was snowless and relatively warm

On Mon, Apr 16, 2012 at 9:50 AM, Greg Petrics <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
I agree on all counts Scott, except one:

On Mon, Apr 16, 2012 at 9:39 AM, Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>   The law of averages says it had to happen soon.

I presume you actually mean The Central Limit Theorem, and if so, said
theorem actually only proves that the non-occurrence of a below
average snowfall year becomes an increasingly unlikely event as time
goes on and we hypothetically continue to have above average snowfall
years.

On Mon, Apr 16, 2012 at 9:39 AM, Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> On Sun, 15 Apr 2012 19:27:27 -0400, Skip King <[log in to unmask]>
>
>>But... the problem is that it lacked mass - compounded by the fact that
>>there was nothing in that snowpack to interrupt the flow of melted water
>>through air channels in the snow down to .. the rivers.
>>
>>I've seen similar "phenomena" over the years.  First time I did I
>>wondered, much as you do now, how it happened,  I asked a few dudes
>>who'd know.  You know a few dudes who'd know. They'll probably tell you
>>same as me.  Physics hasn't changed that much since then.
>>
>>And meantime, I rather suspect you're dealing with a certain amount of
>>(justifiable) wishful thinking.  Don't feel bad about that, /mi amigo./
>>Whole lotta wishful thinking going on around skiing these days.. on both
>>the guest and management side.  Tough year for the biz... and those who
>>love it.  But hey, you can count on one like this every 7 to 10 years
>>locally and every 20 to 30 years nationally, and if you stay in the
>>skibiz, Scott, you'll see at least one more of these before you retire.
>
> You are right on the wishful thinking clouding my judgement.  I did have a similar
> discussion back in March with the senior hydrologist at BTV...Greg Hanson was harping on
> the importance of well developed ice layers in the snowpack as a mechanism to slow
> melt.  It also causes some interesting snow/water measurements because you can get
> liquid to pool in some areas on the snowpack and not others based on the strength of the
> crusts in the snowpack.  So as you were saying, Skip, with nothing to stop or slow the
> movement of free water in the snowpack, it just continues to melt itself out.  Wishful
> thinking can't even stop it haha.
>
> And regarding the poor snow season...myself and some mountain operations folks were
> discussing way back in December how we are due for a poor season and sort of accepted
> that fact a while ago.  The law of averages says it had to happen soon.  We plotted every
> year back to 2000-2001 on the Stake graph, and the vast majority are waaaay above the
> average on the whole, so a clunker was bound to happen.  I just fear that we are still due
> for a few clunkers in the near future to balance out the ridiculous snowfall we've been
> seeing lately.  Even BTV before this winter was averaging 1-2 feet more per winter in the
> 2000s than they did in the 70s, 80s, and 90s.
>
> -Scott
>
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--
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"You?? Yesterday you wanted a nuclear powered car that could turn into
a jet with laser-guided heat-seeking missiles!"
"I'm a simple man with complex tastes."

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