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Expires:201302162115;;273716
FPUS51 KBTV 161144
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

VTZ006-162115-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
644 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013
.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
THEN PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 14. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 2 BELOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WIND CHILL
VALUES AS LOW AS 21 BELOW. 
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 19. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
22 BELOW. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE. 
.TUESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW
60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW
60 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 20. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE.
HIGHS AROUND 30. 
$$

Expires:201302161200;;273539
ASUS41 KBTV 161130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-161200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    26  18  71 N8        29.97S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    25  18  74 W3        29.94F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    27  12  53 NW6       29.95R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     26  21  81 MISG      29.92S                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     26  13  59 CALM      29.93S                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    27  27 100 CALM      29.92F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    28  24  85 CALM      29.93F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    19  10  68 NW3       30.01R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    24  13  64 NW5       29.94R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    28  22  78 W5        29.93S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     23 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     25 N/A N/A W2          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     23 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
DANBY 4 CNRS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     12 N/A N/A W28         N/A  WCI  -9          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     25  21  86 NE17        N/A  WCI  11          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  14  47 NW10        N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;273869
FXUS61 KBTV 161149
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY 
TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY. A 
LOW MOVING UP THE COAST THIS WEEKEND MAY BRING EASTERN PORTIONS OF 
VERMONT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...OTHER THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE 
LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 649 AM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST GOING GD ATTM. ONLY SOME
TWEAKS TO TEMPS FROM LATEST OBS. FRNT STILL CONTINUES TO MV SLOWLY
THRU CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ATTM WITH ANY MAJOR FOCUS OF
PRECIP BEING THERE. STILL LOOKING FOR LGT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF
CWA THUR MORNING AS WE DEAL WITH UPPER TROUGH/LOW MVG OVER REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRNT PUSHING THRU THE NEW ENGLAND 
REGION THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. BULK OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP W/ FRNT IS WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. UPPER TROUGH BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP CLDS AND A SL
CHANCE FOR -SW THIS MORNING BFR TAPERING OFF. THIS IS GOING TO
ALLOW SFC RIDGE TO BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. W/
COLD POOL SINKING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE AREA ON NORTHERLY
FLOW...EXPECTING EARLY HIGHS FOR THE CWA AND TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING REGION TO CLR TOTALLY TODAY/TONIGHT
AS UPPER TROUGH BECM CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHEAST. GOING INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNGT HRS...MDLS HAVE SHOWN COASTL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE REMNANTS OF EXITING FRNT...AND MVG UP THE COAST. SOME INCR
CLDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO SE VT THRU 12Z SUN...WITH ONLY SL
CHANCE FOR --SW ALONG EXTREME E VT W/ REST OF CWA BLOCKED BY
RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...COASTL LOW WORKS ALONG FRNTL REMNANTS 
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LATEST TREND HAS PUSHED THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
FURTHER EAST OVER PAST FEW DAYS...KEEPING MAJORITY OF CWA PRECIP-
FREE...WITH ONLY E VT AND HIR ELEV FOR A FEW HRS PRONE TO THE
WRAP-AROUND -SW POTENTIAL. ANY POTENTIAL LIGHT ACCUM WILL BE OVER
E VT AND WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. W/ STRONG RIDGE TO OUR
WEST/OVERHEAD AND THIS LOW FOR SUN/SUN NGT...EXPECTING GRADIENT TO
BE FAIRLY STRONG THRU THE 24-36 HR PERIOD INTO MONDAY AS LOW MVS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST BUFKIT HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR
30-40MPH...WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER HIR TRRN VT. GOING INTO SUN
NGT WITH THIS FLOW FOR THE AREA...CD AIR IN PLACE WILL POTENTIALLY
WARRANT A POSSIBLE WIND CHILL PRODUCT AS LATEST NUMBERS HINT AT
POSSIBLE -10 TO -20F WITH WIND CHILL. HOLDING OFF FOR NOW ON ANY
ISSUANCE. PLACEMENT OF RIDGE WILL DECIDE ON AMT OF AREAL COVERAGE
FOR THIS AND WILL LIMIT ZONES IN THIS IF IT SHIFTS MORE EAST THAN
FORECASTED...THUS SHUNTING TIGHTER GRADIENT TO OUR EAST. NICE CD
DAY ON TAP FOR CWA AS AREA RIDGE CRESTS OVER AREA...W/ SFC SYSTEMS
TO OUR EAST AND WEST. N NY ZONES COULD BEGIN TO SEE CLDS/SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE INCR LATE IN DAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRNT...BUT FOR NOW
RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD THESE FACTORS OFF UNTIL AFT 00Z TUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH JUST MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS. UPR FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH HIGHER SUMMITS MAY SEE OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL
DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
A 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY 
DURING MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS IS SOMEWHAT QUICKER THAN THE 00Z 
ECMWF IN MOVING THIS FEATURE EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AS CLOSED 
UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRANSLATES EWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS POINT...HAVE INDICATED
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IS COLD...SO WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
DURING THE 1ST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN
VT. TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY COLDER IF SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOSED LOW ROTATES EWD WITH THE SFC 
LOW EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. OCCLUDED FRONT 
SWEEPS THRU THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF 
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BECOME MARGINAL 
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AND HAVE INDICATED POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW 
MIX IN THE GRIDS FOR SEVERAL HRS. ONCE FRONT MOVES THRU...A SWITCH 
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS 
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH WLY FLOW REGIME 
BEHIND THE OCCLUSION RESULTING IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S FOR TUESDAY 
NIGHT. SOME MODEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS 
TUESDAY NIGHT. 
A MOIST LOW-LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW STALLS 
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES FOR SNOW 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS THRU THE 
PERIOD. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. THE 00Z GFS 
PLACED 0.50" SWE AT JAY PEAK THRU THE PERIOD...SO MAY LOCALLY SEE 
UPWARD OF A FOOT AT SUMMIT LEVEL IN THE NRN GREENS BY THURSDAY
MORNING GIVEN ANTICIPATED LOW SNOW DENSITY (20:1 TO 25:1 RATIOS).
RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AFTN THRU FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR 
CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERIODICALLY 
AFFECT RUT/MPV 06-11Z WITH MVFR VSBY AND CEILING CONDITIONS.
MINIMAL IMPACT TO GROUND OPERATIONS WITH ANY ACCUMULATION AN INCH
OR LESS. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS NRN NY AT 06Z
WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SW-NW DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH WINDS
5-10 KTS. SKIES GENERALLY BKN-OVC050 IN VCNTY OF FRONTAL BNDRY. SOME
LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS SATURDAY WITH
SKIES GENERALLY BKN040-060...AND WINDS REMAINING FROM THE N-NW
5-10 KTS MOST TAF SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CONDITIONS
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN MODERATE N-NW WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY VT TAF
LOCATIONS. TRAILING UPR TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION AND BRINGS
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MTNS WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD AT
TIMES. MAY SEE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SLK/MPV LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 
12Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...OCCLUDED FRONT AND CLOSED UPR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS. IN ADVANCE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25 KTS
FROM THE SOUTH AT BTV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

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