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Expires:201305312015;;934980
FPUS51 KBTV 310800
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

VTZ006-312015-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE
OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE
OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE
OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
$$

Expires:201305311100;;940953
ASUS41 KBTV 311030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-311100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   66  61  84 CALM      30.05S                  
MONTPELIER     SUNNY     56  55  97 CALM      30.13S FOG              
MORRISVILLE    MOSUNNY   57  57 100 CALM      30.09R FOG              
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       57  54  91 CALM      30.11S VSB<1/4          
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     61  57  88 SE8       30.11F                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       59  59 100 CALM      30.11S VSB<1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      72  60  65 S6        30.02S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      63  58  83 S5        30.07R                  
BENNINGTON     FOG       61  59  94 CALM      30.12S VSB 1            
SUTTON*          N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     52 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A W21         N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  59  82 S9          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A SW17        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  61  88 S5          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;934964
FXUS61 KBTV 310800
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY 
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT 
WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE 
REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS 
FRONT...DRIER...LESS HUMID WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES 
ARE EXPECTED BY LATER MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR
THE FORECAST AREA AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM 85
TO 90 WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMPS AND THE
00Z GUIDANCE SUITE. AS A RESULT...A FEW DAILY RECORDS MAY BE
THREATENED (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLE...BUT SHOULDN'T BE UNBEARABLE AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS AVERAGE IN THE 59 TO 65 RANGE. AREA SOUNDINGS REMAIN
CONSISTENT FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL CAP THAT WAS
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED YESTERDAY WILL ERODE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. INDEED...SREF PROGS SHOW AN
80-100% CHANCE THAT SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG
AND A 20/30% OF REACHING 2000 J/KG. WITH MEAN ANTICYLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND LACK OF A LARGE SCALE FORCING TRIGGER HOWEVER...RATHER
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY SUBSTANTIAL MEANS TO GET PERSISTENT OR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS GOING. MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT A FEW PULSE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY POP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH(ESP NERN VT) AS SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OCCUR AND AMBIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES
SLIGHTLY ALONG THE INTL BORDER. HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST SUCH THAT WITH THE EXPECTED PAUCITY OF
AREAL COVERAGE POPS WILL BE CAPPED UNDER 20%. THAT SAID...A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD GET A LITTLE BEEFY WITH GOOD OUTFLOW GIVEN DEEP
PBL MIXING TO 800 MB AND NAM/GFS DCAPE VALUES RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. I WON'T MENTION THIS DISCRETELY IN THE
FORECAST BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...BY TONIGHT AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS FROM THE
MIDWESTERN/GREAT LAKES STATES. I CAN'T COMPLETLY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STRAY STORM ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY AS LOWS REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FROM 58 TO 68. SOME LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN VERMONT.
BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW 
PROGRESS EASTWARD BUT REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR AREA AS WARM AND HUMID 
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES FROM TODAY HOWEVER AS 
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH 
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS 
WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER FORCING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED 
CONVECTION OWING TO ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  THUS 
WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM 
DEVELOPMENT WITH BEST FOCUS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF 
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS AGAIN QUITE WARM THOUGH A TAD COOLER 
THAN TODAY BY 1-3 DEGREES AS AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN LINGERING 
AROUND SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT SHOULD 
GENERALLY SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE SLV WITH LOSS OF 
INSOLATION. IN THE SLV COVERAGE/POPS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE 
LATER AT NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER FORCING RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF 
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. LOWS AGAIN HOLDING ON THE MILD SIDE IN 
THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70 IN THE CHAMPLAINV VALLEY UNDER LIGHT TO 
MODERATE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
BY SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA WITH A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A MORE WIDESPREAD 
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWAT VALUES QUITE HIGH SO PRIOR 
FORECASTS IDEA OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. 
COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES 
WITH APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL JET AND HAVE NOTED SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK 
DOES INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF ERN NY INTO NRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND IN 
SLIGHT RISK. HIGHS 78 TO 85 WITH WARMEST READINGS EAST WHERE AT 
LEAST SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EDT FRIDAY...FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRNTL BOUNDARY 
CONTINUES TO PUSH THRU THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BFR SETTLING OFF THE NEW ENG COAST BY THE AFTNOON HRS.
MDLS CONSISTENT OVER PAST FEW DAYS IN SLOWLY MVG UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRNT WILL
MV SLOWLY EAST ON TUESDAY CRESTING OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPS...FOR THE CWA...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S/L70S 
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM M50S/L60S SUN NGT TO 40S/L50S BY 
THURSDAY MORNING. LWR TEMPS LATER IN PERIOD AFFECTED BY RIDGE 
BUILDING OVER AREA/RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING. 
WINDS...GENERAL PATTERN FOR EXPECTED WINDS IN THE EXTENDED WILL 
BRING SSW FLOW 10-20 MPH INITIALLY...TO MORE NNW 5-15 MPH BEHIND 
FRONT WITH APPROACH OF RIDGE AND ALMOST NEAR LIGHT GOING INTO 
THURSDAY AS RIDGE CRESTS OVER REGION. 
CLD COVER/WX...ABUNDANT CLD COVER FOR THE CWA SUN NGT INTO MONDAY 
MORNING AS FROPA OCCURS WITH CLRING FROM NW TO SE. LINGERING CLDS 
OVER NORTHERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY FOR NE VT...AS SLOWLY MVG UPPER LOW 
TRUDGES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO 
THURSDAY...NICE MSUNNY/SUNNY DAYS ON TAP WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING 
OVER AREA WITH MTN CLDS DURING THE DAY. FOR PRECIP/WX...FOCUS WILL 
BE ON LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL WITH CD FRNTL PASSAGE SUN NGT/MON 
MORNING. HEAVIEST MDL QPF WILL OCCUR SUN NGT TAPERING OFF MONDAY 
MORNING TO LIGHT QPF FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES IN THE RANGE OF A 
FEW HUNDREDTHS. FOR SUN NGT...AN ADDITIONAL 0.50-1.00" POSSIBLE 
ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS. ANY REMAINING TRW WILL TO WANE 
BY 06Z MONDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING LOSS AND COOLING OF AIRMASS FROM 
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECR INSTABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...THRU 12Z THIS MORNING EXPECTING SKC ALL SITES
EXCEPT SLK/MPV WHERE FG BRINGS VSBY DOWN TO 1-3SM AT TIMES. LLWS
FOR BTV/PBG/MPV THRU 12Z AS WELL WITH 22030KTS POSSIBLE. AFT 12Z-
13Z THIS MORNING...VFR WITH SKC INITIALLY THEN SCT LOW AND HIGH
CLDS OVER AREA BY MIDDAY. SOME ISOLATED AFTNOON RW/TRW MAY DEVELOP
AROUND AREA...BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST FOR
SITES. BY 00Z SAT...VFR COND CONTINUE W/ SKC AT ALL SITES...BUT
SLK/MPV...WHERE LGT FG DEVELOPS WITH VSBY DOWN TO 5SM. LGT/VAR
WINDS THRU 12Z THIS MORNING BECM WSW 5-15KTS...THEN TAPERING DOWN
TO NEAR LGT/VAR BY 00Z SAT(RUT SE 5KTS).
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MAY 31ST.
THE RECORDS FOR THE DATE ARE LISTED BELOW:
BURLINGTON-    90F (1999) 
MONTPELIER-    86F (1999) 
MASSENA-       90F (1999) 
ST. JOHNSBURY- 92F (1937)
THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF MAY AT BURLINGTON IS
93F...SET ON MAY 22ND 1977.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/BANACOS
CLIMATE...BTV

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