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Expires:201307182015;;170864
FPUS51 KBTV 180751
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

VTZ006-182015-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
351 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL MIDNIGHT. HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOT. HUMID WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LOWS
AROUND 50. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. 
$$

Expires:201307181100;;176821
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     SUNNY     71  69  93 E3        30.02S                  
MONTPELIER     SUNNY     66  66 100 VRB5      30.09R                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       66  65  96 CALM      30.06S VSB<1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     67  67 100 MISG      30.02R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     68  65  90 CALM      30.08R FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    FOG       69  69 100 CALM      30.03  VSB 1            
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     70  70 100 SE5       30.05R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOSUNNY   70  70 100 CALM      30.04R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      69  67  92 SE3       30.02S FOG              
NEWPORT*       FAIR      66  64  91 CALM      30.05S FOG              
BENNINGTON     MOSUNNY   73  70  88 CALM      30.06R FOG              
SUTTON*          N/A     64 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A NW15        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     73  70  88 E1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     75  72  88 E8          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     75  73  94 N3          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;175395
FXUS61 KBTV 180933
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
533 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 533 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET START TO THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI
VALLEYS...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN FAIRLY ZONAL W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...WITH INSTABILITY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF
1500+J/KG...LI OF -5C TO -7C...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN...WITH NAM AND GFS
INDICATING A SLGT WAVE/WARM FRONT AT THE SFC WHICH COULD HELP
KEEP CONVECTION LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THETA E GRADIENT TO
OUR NORTH IN SW QUEBEC...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
BEING TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE CONVECTION RELY ON DIURNAL HEATING.
WITHOUT NOTABLE SYNOPTIC FORCING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO START IN
THE EARLY/MID AFTN...ESP OVER HIGHER TRRN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL BE 1.5-2 INCHES. LIKELY TO BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 00Z.
HOT MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE L90S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 70S IN THE HIGH TRRN. DEWPTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
M60S TO M70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100F DURING THE
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 533 AM EDT THURSDAY...LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING
WITH BR/FG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESP AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL. TOWARDS EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS
SHOW WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD...BEGINNING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EARLY. LLJ AROUND 30-45KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...PROVIDING PLENTY OF SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE CONVECTION.
CAPE VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER WITH OVER 2500 J/KG PSBL. CLEARLY
DEFINE THETA E RIDGING SUPPORTS INDICATIONS OF LARGE INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT
FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE SUPPORT FROM VORTICITY WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT BEST
CHCS FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID
LEVEL HT FALLS SEE A MORE DRAMATIC CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GAINS MOMENTUM EWD...GRAZING THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AT THE SFC FORWARD. GOING INTO SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL
BE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND LI
AROUND -3C. UPPER LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL POSITION
THE RR QUAD OVER THE SLV FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EWD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT DOESN/T LOOK TO EXIT ERN VT UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT WITH 925MB REACHING MID20S ON FRIDAY...
RESULTING IN SFC MAX TEMPS IN THE U80S-M90S...ESP IN SW DOWNSLOPE
AREAS LIKE PBG. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 100
DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY IN THE CPV AND CT VALLEY. WITH
MORE CLD COVER ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE
M-U80S. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARM...IN THE 60S- L70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY... IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 850 TEMPS DROPS TO AROUND 6C BUT MODIFY BACK
TO 8-11C WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE
70S ON SUNDAY AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S WITH KSLK PERHAPS MID
40S.
A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BY TUE AND WED WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVE
TROFS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT A MEAN LONGER WAVE AND
PERSISTENT TROF SOMEWHERE OVER FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. WE WILL TEND TO BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE OF THE TROF SO
HAVE BROUGHT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
INTO THE AREA ON TUE-WED. ECMWF IS FASTER THAN GFS/GEFS SO HAVE
TWEAKED THE POPS UP INTO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CREEP UP TO AROUND NORMAL BUT IF IT'S SHOWERY DURING THE
DAY, IT COULD BE A BIT COOLER. LOWS MAINLY 55 TO 65 AND HIGHS 75
TO 82.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AT KBTV/KPBG. OTHER SITES WILL
HAVE SOME IFR IN BR AND VLIFR AT TIMES IN FOG THROUGH 12Z AT KSLK
AND KMPV. FOG WILL BURN OFF 12-14Z.
NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER UNTIL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 17Z AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS. IF A THUNDERSTORM WERE TO MOVE OVER A TAF SITE I
WOULD EXPECT BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME OF DAY.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIE OFF TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME
BR EXPECTED AFTER 03Z.
WINDS LGT/VAR..THEN W-SW 5-10KTS FROM 13Z-14Z THURSDAY ONWARD.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY - SAT LCL IFR
FG/BR OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANT RULE IT OUT AT ANY TIME THROUGH
SAT WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MAX TEMP RECORDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BEST SHOT OF REACHING OR
BREAKING RECORD MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY AT KMPV AND KMSS. SHORTER
PERIOD OF RECORD AT THESE SITES THAN AT K1V4 AND KBTV.
      07/18/2013   07/19/2013
KBTV  99/1953      98/1942 
KMPV  96/1953      92/1991 
K1V4  99/1953      95/1991 
KMSS  95/1953      93/1991
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR FUNCTIONING BUT WE MUST MAINTAIN VCP21 THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING OR UNTIL A SOLUTION IS FOUND BY THE TECHNICIANS FROM FORT
DRUM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
CLIMATE...WFO STAFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO STAFF

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