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Expires:201307212015;;318812
FPUS51 KBTV 211013
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

VTZ006-212015-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
613 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013
.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
$$

Expires:201307211100;;319409
ASUS41 KBTV 211030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-211100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOSUNNY   59  51  75 N7        29.95R                  
MONTPELIER     SUNNY     59  55  87 N5        29.98R                  
MORRISVILLE      N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG      29.97R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     59  56  89 MISG      29.92R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      56  50  80 CALM      29.97R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    PTSUNNY   61  58  92 W5        29.94R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    61  61 100 CALM      29.95R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       60  60 100 CALM      29.92S VSB<1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      57  49  76 N7        29.97R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      55  46  73 N7        29.98R                  
BENNINGTON     MOSUNNY   58  57  97 CALM      29.93R FOG              
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A W6          N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  52  72 NE2         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  54  72 N18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  52  67 NW16        N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;319062
FXUS61 KBTV 211027
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETURN SHOWERS AND HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT SUNDAY...VARYING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE NORTH
COUNTRY SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING THIS MORNING AS N/NW FLOW
CONTINUES TO DRAW IN DRIER AIR. WV IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE N AS BASE OF TROUGH SHIFTS E.
OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LVL VORTICITY POSSIBLY MOVING OVER THE
AREA...IN COMBINATION WITH EXITING UPPER LVL JET ALLOWING FEW-SCT
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.
500MB HTS INCREASING...SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NW AT 15KTS OR LESS...DECREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND PGF WEAKENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...AS 925MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L20S...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE M60S IN THE HIGH TRRN
AND M70S-L80S IN THE VALLEYS.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LGT TO CALM WINDS. SOME BR/FG MAY DEVELOP IN CLIMATICALLY
FAVORABLE AREAS WITH X-OVER TEMPS BEING IN THE 40S AND MIN TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE L40S-M50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE E
OF THE AREA...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...
A TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT N AND E... CROSSING
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY TUESDAY. SW FLOW WILL RETURN TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY...INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY...BRINGING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE N ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT...INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER
LOW TO THE NORTH. INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THESE FEATURES. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TRACK
OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LOW...THEREFORE WHERE AND WHEN PRECIP WILL
LAND IS QUESTIONABLE. BUT COME TUESDAY...THE NORTHERLY STREAM OF
LOW PRESSURE...BEING STRONGER THAN THE ATLANTIC LOW WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON PWATS...KEEPING THEM BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES.
MAX TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM U60S/L70S IN THE
HIGH TRRN TO L/M80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE M50S-L60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF MEAN 500MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES (HIGHS UPR 70S TO LWR
80S)...BUT ALSO BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY THRU THE PERIOD.
BETTER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN 00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF THIS
CYCLE ON OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION...BUT SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST ON POTL PRECIP PERIODS. FAVORED SLOWER 00Z
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO PROSPECT FOR RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250 MB JET OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH MAY INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HRS WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5
IN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE VALUES
1000-1500 J/KG. FREEZING LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE 12 KFT WITH PW
VALUES EXCEEDING 1.8 IN BY THE AFTN HRS WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BASED ON EXPECTED
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
MAINLY MID-UPR 70S.
NEXT UPR TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. SFC TROUGH AXIS STALLS
SOUTH/EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LIKELY ACROSS ERN/SRN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER
TO SFC BOUNDARY. KEPT 30 POPS ACROSS ERN VT THURS AND THURS NIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN BEST FORCING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NRN NY. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S THURSDAY.
IT APPEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE BETWEEN UPR TROUGHS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MAY SEE DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MEAN TROUGH DEEPENING AGAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LKS
AND OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS POSSIBLE
SAT/SUN...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY
UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ON SATURDAY...AND MID-UPR 70S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING SCT-BKN050-060 TO THE TAF SITES DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE EVENING HOURS HAVE
SINCE DISSIPATED...SO TAF PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE DRY. MAY SEE
INTERVALS OF FOG DURING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT SLK/RUT...AND
ALSO OCCASIONAL NLY WINDS 5-10 KTS AS DRIER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL
MIXING WORKS IN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL IN ALL...MAINLY VFR
BUT INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE THRU 11Z AT SLK/RUT WITH ANY FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS BRINGS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...AND FEW-SCT050
TONIGHT. MAY AGAIN SEE A BIT OF RADIATIONAL FOG AFTER 06Z MONDAY
AT SLK/MPV. WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL BE NORTH 5-8
KTS...BUT LOCALLY NE AT PBG/MSS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALL TAF
SITES AFTER 02Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY THRU
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY DRY/VFR WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING TROUGH PASSAGE. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

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