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Expires:201310142015;;221014
FPUS51 KBTV 140748
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

VTZ006-142015-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
348 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
80 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. LOWS AROUND 40. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S. 
$$

Expires:201310141100;;227560
ASUS41 KBTV 141030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-141100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  55  48  77 S8        30.30R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    47  45  93 S7        30.35S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    46  44  93 CALM      30.33S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     50  45  83 MISG      30.32S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    48  44  85 S5        30.34S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    53  48  81 CALM      30.31R                  
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     43  43 100 SE10      30.34S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    47  45  93 CALM      30.36S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    56  52  88 S3        30.28S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    49  44  82 S5        30.32S                  
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   44  41  89 CALM      30.34S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     43 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A W9          N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  52  88 SE14        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  52  88 SW21        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     52  48  87 S9          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;222469
FXUS61 KBTV 140819
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY 
TODAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. A MORE ACTIVE 
WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES 
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A COOLING 
TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND. 
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT MONDAY...THE FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE CHCS FOR 
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE AND SFC BOUNDARY. PW ANALYSIS SHOWS 1.45" AT BUF
WHICH IS 234% OF NORMAL...WHILE ALB SOUNDING HAD 0.60 OR 95% OF
NORMAL...WITH DTX BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AT 0.33...INDICATING THE
QUICK DRYING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. GIVEN NARROW RIBBON ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE...WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY INTO THE CPV...BUT TAPER CHCS OFF
ACRS EASTERN/SOUTHERN VT TODAY...WITH DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...BEST 5H ENERGY LIFTS INTO CANADA...WHILE 850 TO 500MB
RH PROFILES DECREASE ACRS OUR CWA TODAY. QPF WL RANGE AROUND 0.20"
ACRS SLV/DACK TO A TRACE TO 0.10" ACRS CPV AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HIGHS TODAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP...ALONG WITH A VERY WARM START TO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY CPV. WL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 63 OFF THE
GUIDANCE FOR BTV AND MENTION A HIGH NEAR 65F...ELSEWHERE WARMEST
TEMPS WL BE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U60S AND U50S
TO L60S MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS 
WL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN...RESULTING IN A BOARD AND ACTIVE SW FLW
ALOFT. THIS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU WEDS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR RAIN BY MID WEEK. TONIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO OUR CWA...BUT SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW SEVERAL
DIFFERENT LAYERS OF RH ACRS OUR REGION....SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS/BR IN SOME SPOTS AND MID LVL CLOUDS IN OTHERS.
ALSO...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME FOG DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY
NNY/SLV...WHERE HIGHEST QPF WL OCCUR TODAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN CLOUDS AND FOG...WL TREND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE U30S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 50F CPV.
TUESDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE OF 
CLOUDS...BUT THINKING WITH DEVELOPING RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE WL HELP 
BURN OFF LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. PROGGED 
925MB RANGE BTWN 10-12C ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS 
BACK INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 
SLV/WESTERN DACKS APPROACHING 70F.
TUES NIGHT...EXPECT A COMPLEX LLVL THERMAL PROFILE AS CWA IS UNDER 
LLVL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW. PROGGED 925MB 
TEMPS WARM BTWN 10-14C OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME HIGH LVL MOISTURE 
ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. 
THINKING DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND EAST OF THE GREENS WL 
DECOUPLE WITH EARLY EVENING LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S...BEFORE 
WARMING TAKES PLACE AFT MIDNIGHT...WHILE CPV/SLV WL STAY IN A 
SOUTHERLY FLW WITH TEMPS IN THE U40S TO M50S. IN ADDITION...MID 
SLOPES AND RIDGETOPS WL BE IN THE MID 40S TO L50S OVERNIGHT WITH 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH. 
WEDS...NEXT MID/UPPER LVL TROF APPROACHES OUR WESTERN CWA BY 
18Z....WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO 
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WL ONCE AGAIN PLACE OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR 
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING 85H TEMPS BTWN 9-11C AND 925MB TEMPS 
BTWN 12C AND 15C. CLOUDS AND SE WINDS ADVECTING IN A COOLER MARITIME 
AIRMASS INTO EASTERN VT...MAY KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK...BUT STILL WAY 
ABOVE NORMAL. WL TREND ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE CPV/SLV AND WESTERN 
DACKS WITH VALUES NEAR 70F...WHILE KEEPING CENTRAL/EASTERN VT IN THE 
60S. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BTWN THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION AND 
SLOWER NAM FOR PRECIP ON WEDS AFTN. WL USE A BLEND AND MENTION 
LIKELY POPS SLV AFT 18Z AND CHC APPROACHING THE CPV BY 00Z THUR. A 
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDS INTO THURS...WITH 
STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. A DEVELOPING 925MB TO 
850MB WIND FIELD OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ON WEDS...WL MIX SOME TO THE SFC 
AND PRODUCE GUSTS IN THE 30 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED 
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND EXPOSED HIGHER TRRN. 
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT MONDAY...SO AFTER A LONG AND DELIGHTFUL STRETCH
OF WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE
MOTHER NATURE WILL FINALLY SAY ENOUGH IS ENOUGH AND BRING US SOME
MORE TYPICAL AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS BY LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT IS TO SAY CLOUDIER AND COOLER WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF
SHOWERS. OH WELL...ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END. THIS
MORNING'S MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN
OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A PRONOUNCED PATTERN CHANGE AS
THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING NORTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED BY AN EVOLVING EAST CENTRAL NOAM UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE LATTER
FEATURE...A PRIMARY LEADING SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND IT'S DURING THIS PERIOD WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFERED. THEREAFTER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES LOOK REALISTIC AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH
THE EVOLVING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND TAPS INTO GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE FLOW
WILL NOT BE OVERLY AMPLIFIED THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE RATHER
GRADUAL OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS. THUS HIGHS SHOULD SETTLE
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...OR MAINLY IN THE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WITH AMPLE CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIKELY TO HOLD GENERALLY IN 35 TO 45 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS AND SCT
SHOWERS. HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST TODAY WITH MOST
PROLONGED THREAT OF RAINFALL AT THE KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. SOME
OCCNL IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS. WINDS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 3 TO 8 KTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
(SOUTHEASTERLY AT KRUT)...TRENDING VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS BY
EVENING. SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE AT KMSS.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG AT MPV/SLK.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR IN PERIODS OF
RAIN AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LAHIFF

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