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Expires:201310222015;;583986 FPUS51 KBTV 220808 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 408 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 VTZ006-222015- LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE 408 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 .TODAY...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. .SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. .SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. $$ Expires:201310221100;;589667 ASUS41 KBTV 221030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-221100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 55 39 54 S14G24 29.75F MONTPELIER CLOUDY 47 37 68 SW3 29.82F MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 51 38 60 CALM 29.77F ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 51 38 60 MISG 29.78F LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 49 37 61 S7 29.80F MIDDLEBURY* PTSUNNY 55 40 56 SE7 29.78S RUTLAND* CLOUDY 48 37 66 SE10 29.80F SPRINGFIELD MOSUNNY 39 37 92 CALM 29.85F HIGHGATE* RAIN 58 39 48 S9 29.72F NEWPORT* CLOUDY 52 36 56 S6 29.77F BENNINGTON CLOUDY 52 41 66 CALM 29.81F SUTTON* N/A 46 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 39 N/A N/A SW9G22 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COLCHESTER RF* N/A 55 45 67 SW31 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 54 41 62 S20 N/A $$ Expires:No;;585914 FXUS61 KBTV 220850 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 450 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 450 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS WORKING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO WORK EASTWARD... SO EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT WILL BE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE ABOVE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO WORK INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 450 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THEE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE MUCH COLDER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE HERE IN BURLINGTON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 55. ON WEDNESDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWS MOISTURE WORKING NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. COULD SEE SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. NAM12 AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A LAKE EFFECT BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS SHOW THIS BAND WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 335 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING OUR AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AS A LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC AND FINALLY AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS JUST PAST THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KTS...BUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS SUSTAINED AT 2000 FEET. THIS IS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND AROUND 12Z IN VERMONT. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 3000 FEET...BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF A BIT...BECOME MORE WESTERLY...SHOWERS WILL END...AND CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. AROUND 00Z WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND SKIES BECOME SCT TO CLEAR. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A TROF OF LOW PRES WL CONT ACRS OUR TAF SITES THRU FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SLK ON WEDS MORNING. IN ADDITION...EXPECT BRISK SW WINDS TO BECM NW WINDS BY WED WITH GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 25 KNOTS LIKELY. SFC HIGH PRES WL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. && .MARINE... AS OF 450 AM EDT TUESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY FOR SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH VISIBILITY GENERALLY REMAINING UNRESTRICTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES MARINE...WFO BTV - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html