Print

Print


Expires:201401092100;;218470
FPUS51 KBTV 091129
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014

VTZ006-092100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
629 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS AROUND
16. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 8 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW
30 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.SATURDAY...RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
$$

Expires:201401091200;;218517
ASUS41 KBTV 091130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU JAN 09 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-091200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    15   6  67 S6        30.45R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    11   5  77 W5        30.40R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    16   6  65 SW7       30.41R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      3  -1  83 MISG      30.38R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES   7   1  79 CALM      30.36R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    14   7  73 CALM      30.45R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    16   5  62 W6        30.43S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY     0  -4  83 CALM      30.45R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    19   8  61 W5        30.44R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  16   7  67 W10G16    30.36R WCI   4          
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   12   4  70 CALM      30.46R                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      1 N/A N/A N24         N/A  WCI -22          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     19  10  68 SW12        N/A  WCI   7          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     21  10  63 W16         N/A  WCI   7          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     18   9  68 S5          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;218777
FXUS61 KBTV 091136
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIGHTER WINDS. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESTABLISHING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW DURING
FRIDAY MORNING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY. RAIN COULD BE
BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 631 AM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TODAY AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN STRONGLY FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY REGION. RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SRN ST.
LAWRENCE INTO SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS NOW
ENDED AS PRIMARY LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBAND HAS SHIFTED SWD AND IS
DISSIPATING AS OF 1130Z. IT APPEARS FROM IR SATELLITE TRENDS THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...AND THEN WILL
TREND PARTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC-850MB FLOW VEERS WNWLY AND
MOISTURE/CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES LESSENS (AND WITH INCREASING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE DAY). SFC WINDS GENERALLY
SW VEERING TO NW 5-10 MPH WITH INCREASED MIXING THRU THE DAYLIGHT
HRS. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSER TO WARMER MET-MOS
GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE UPR TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 256 AM EST THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME
S-SW ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THE
00Z GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN DEVELOPING WSWLY FLOW ALOFT THAT CROSSES THE REGION
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE THAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE BEST EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN TEMPS
WILL TEND TO BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE IN SOME SPOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AND CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
MIN TEMPS ABOVE MOS READINGS MOST SECTIONS TONIGHT. MAY SEE A
COUPLE SPOTS NEAR ZERO FAR NERN VT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY 5-13F FOR
LOWS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS OVERCAST SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
STRATIFORM SNOWFALL FRIDAY 12-18Z. ALSO SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN. BEST
MOISTURE AND UVV IS ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE A
DUSTING-0.5" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG DEAL.
SYSTEM MOVES PAST BY EARLY AFTN...SO MAY GET SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR A FEW HRS FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY
START TO MODERATE WITH HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY FROM THE MID 20S EAST
OF THE GREEN MTNS TO 30-34F FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WWD...AND A BIT LIGHTER WITH LESS PBL DEPTH EAST OF THE
GREENS (5-10 MPH GENERALLY).
MERIDIONAL UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST...REACHING THE SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND 00Z GFS DEPICTS PW
VALUES AROUND 1" ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH
STRONG DEEP-LAYER S-SW FLOW AND STRONG TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE EXTENDING WELL EAST OF THE SFC
LOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
APPEARS WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING SATURDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON TIMING...TEMPS MAY STILL BE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT.
THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE VERY
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DEEP-LAYER SATURATION OCCURS. HAVE
INDICATED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS 11-14Z MAINLY
EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT THIS IS CONDITIONAL BASED ON ONSET TIME
OF PCPN. IF IT HOLDS OFF A BIT LATER...IT SHOULDN/T BE A FACTOR.
TEMPS WILL WARM MORE EFFECTIVE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...SO
NOT ANTICIPATING TRAVEL PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ICING FOR
WRN VT OR NRN NY. THRU THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY...MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH TEMPS RISING THRU THE 40S MOST SECTIONS.
QPF THRU 00Z SUNDAY WILL BE 0.50-0.75" ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS...AND GENERALLY
0.3-0.5" ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT HYDRO CONCERNS WITH POSSIBLE ICE JAM
FLOODING...AS OUTLINED IN HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. IT WILL ALSO BE
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SATURDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 15-20
MPH...AND LOCALLY A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS AND ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EST THURSDAY...STEADY RAIN WILL START THE PERIOD AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SATURDAY NGT TEMPS MILD WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT RAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S-
L40S. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR ERN VT EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING SW. POST FRONTAL TROUGH WILL KEEP THREAT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DECREASING THREAT AS THE DAY GOES
ON. TEMPS NOT MOVING MUCH WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING ESP DURING
THE AFTN.
OVERALL BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A HALF TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S CAUSING POTENTIAL ICE
JAMS THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE ICE JAM IMPACTS ARE INHERENTLY
UNPREDICTABLE...LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN AND
WHERE THEY OCCUR.
SUNDAY NGT INTO EARLY MONDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH MILD TEMPS
CONTINUING IN SW FLOW. MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO U20S AND MONDAY
MAX TEMPS...HAMPERED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LVL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...REACHING THE U30S-L40S.
LATE MONDAY THRU MID WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER. THE FIRST
SYSTEM MONDAY NGT WILL BE NRN STREAM WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...QUICKLY MOVING THRU BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL HAVE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY INTERACTING INCLUDING NRN AND
SRN STREAM VORTICES...MAKING THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THESE
COMPONENTS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER IN VFR CONDITIONS
WITH EXCEPTION OF KSLK STILL SEEING SNOW SHOWERS A SATELLITE
SHOWS WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO END AT KSLK AROUND 15Z. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HRS. OVERNGT...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND LOWER AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO BRING CHC OF
SNOW FRIDAY...MAINLY TOWARDS THE AFTN.
WINDS OUT OF THE SW...EXCEPT FUNNELING UP THE CPV AT SSW...WILL
SHIFT MORE W TO NW DURING THE AFTN AS WIND SPEED DECREASE TO
AROUND 6KTS OR LESS. GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVRNGT...WIND AGAIN
SHIFT OUT OF THE S TO SW AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE
ATLANTIC.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH BEST CHCS TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...COLDER AIR RETURNS SUNDAY WITH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SCATTERED MVFR/IFR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ICE JAMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL GO DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF WITH
FROZEN GROUND AND EXISTING ICE/SNOWCOVER ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE MOVEMENT WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT WHERE RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVIEST. THAT SAID...WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND 0.5-1"
RAINFALL ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ICE MOVEMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN RIVER BASINS ACROSS NY/VT AS WELL. TIMING OF ANY ICE JAM
RELATED FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR RESPONSE TIME ASSOCIATED WITH RUNOFF AND RISING
RIVER LEVELS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE MENTION OF THE ICE JAM
FLOODING RISK IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...BANACOS

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html