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Expires:201401272100;;052619
FPUS51 KBTV 271121
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

VTZ006-272100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
621 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.TODAY...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURE
FALLING TO AROUND 11 THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND
6 BELOW. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW
20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 22 BELOW. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 7 ABOVE. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
23 BELOW. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 4 BELOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 11. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 BELOW TO ZERO.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
$$

Expires:201401271200;;053156
ASUS41 KBTV 271130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-271200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    23  12  62 SE8       29.41F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    18  10  71 SW3       29.49F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    18  10  71 VRB5      29.45F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     18   7  62 MISG      29.50F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      18   8  63 S13       29.46F WCI   5          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    25  17  70 SE7       29.41F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    27  12  54 SE22G28   29.43F WCI  12          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    18  11  74 CALM      29.57F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    28  16  61 S17G25    29.36F WCI  15          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    19   8  63 S7        29.41F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    37  17  44 S14G30    29.46F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     16 N/A N/A NE3         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     10 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     19 N/A N/A S24G46      N/A  WCI   2          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     27  16  63 SE28G33     N/A  WCI  11          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     27  19  74 S32         N/A  WCI  10          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     23  16  74 S15         N/A  WCI  10          
$$

Expires:No;;052515
FXUS61 KBTV 271119
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A 
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED
ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EST MONDAY...FCST CHALLENGE CONTS TO BE TIMING OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FASTER WITH PRECIP ARRIVING/DEPARTING OUR CWA
TODAY...WITH CRNT RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE SLV.
THIS WL EXPAND INTO THE DACKS BY 12Z AND INTO THE CPV BTWN 13Z-15Z
TODAY. ALSO...EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACRS THE MTNS OF VT
BY 14Z TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TIMING BY 1 TO 2 HRS ON HRLY POP
GRIDS...BUT KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THE SAME. HAVE NOTED SNINCR'S
AT ROC/BUF OF 1 INCH IN 1 HR ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND THE
ACCOMPANYING SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WITH VIS BRIEFLY < 1/4SM. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACRS PARTS OF OUR CWA TODAY. ALSO...HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES BEFORE FROPA OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW LOWER 30S POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN CPV. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
QUICKLY FALL THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
INTERESTING WX DAY SHAPING UP ACRS OUR CWA TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL
IMPORTANT FEATURES IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP TODAY...1ST MID/UPPER
LVL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACRS SOUTHERN VT/EASTERN NY ASSOCIATED
WITH WAA LIFT...2ND POTENT 5H VORT IS DIVING ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE
COMBINATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...MID LVL MOISTURE...AND TIMING OF SFC
COLD FRNT DURING PEAK HEATING...WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS EXPANDING ACRS WESTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED PVA/MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE/LIFT
WL COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES FROM SFC HEATING AND
COOLING ALOFT AND A SFC COLD FRNT/CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-20Z TODAY. THE LOCALLY
DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AND LIFT ACRS NORTHERN NY BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND
INTO CPV BTWN 15Z- 17Z...AND ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN 18Z-20Z.
VALUES OFF THE SNSQ PARAMETER INCREASE BTWN 5-8 ACRS VT DUE TO
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 60-100 J/KG. THIS IS
ALSO DEPICTED NICELY IN THE LATEST RAP13 COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS WITH ENHANCED 25 TO 35 PROGGED DBZ'S MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA TODAY...ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WL MAKE SNOWFALL FCST TRICKY...ALONG 
WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM.
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HR WL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WL BE LIMITED.
GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY SEVERAL BURSTS OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
AND DACKS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALIZED 5 OR 6 INCHES LIKELY FROM STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NEK. ELSEWHERE...TRRN WL IMPACT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED CPV AND LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. PREVIOUS FCSTER HAD GREAT DETAIL IN POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY AND EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING IN THE
CPV...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SIGNATURE ACRS THE NORTHERN
GREENS. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS MTNS TO HIGH CHC/LOW
LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS TODAY. PRECIP QUICKLY ENDS AFT 21Z...AS
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA.
PROGGED LLVL TEMPS ARE THE WARMEST ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 12Z-15Z 
TODAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...SO 
THINKING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS MTNS TO 
M/U 20S WARMER VALLEYS. LATEST RAP SHOWS SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 30F 
HERE AT BTV AT 15Z...BEFORE FALLING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN 
THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW 3000 TO 5000 FT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 55 
TO 65 KNTS THRU 18Z TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND 
DECREASING THIS AFTN TO 25 TO 35 KNTS. EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY 
CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM THRU WEDS WL FEATURE REDEVELOPMENT 
OF FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
VERY LOW THICKNESS VALUES ACRS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO TUES. NOT VERY OFTEN WE SEE <490 THICKNESSES ACRS OUR
REGION...BUT THIS INDICATES THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO BE
ACRS THE NE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WL KEEP
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT INTO TUES.
HOWEVER...POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS
OUR CWA WITH STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BY 12Z TUES. STRONGEST LLVL WIND FIELDS WL BE
ACRS THE SLV/DACKS ON TUESDAY...WITH VERY FAVORABLE TRRN ALIGNED
FLW FROM THE SW EXPECTED. GIVEN BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...THINKING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WL BE LIKELY
ACRS THE SLV AND UP TO 30 KNTS IN THE DACKS AND BTWN 25 AND 30
KNTS IN THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT ON TUES. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING WITH REDUCED VIS BTWN 1-3SM...ESPECIALLY
EXPOSED OPEN FIELDS/HIGHER TRRN. ONCE AGAIN GREATEST POTENTIAL WL
BE ACRS SLV/DACKS.
ONCE AGAIN THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS BTWN 5 AND -15F AND GUSTY 
SOUTHWEST WINDS WL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -15F AND -30F ACRS 
NORTHERN NY WITH READINGS BTWN -5 AND -20F ACRS MOST OF VT TONIGHT 
INTO TUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR 
NORTHERN NY AND INTO PARTS OF VT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH 
REGARDS TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGHLIGHTS 
NEEDED SO WL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE ON PLACEMENT AND ISSUING OF 
PRODUCT. ONCE AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES ACRS THE MTN SUMMITS WL BE 
EXTREMELY COLD WITH VALUES BTWN -45F AND -60F EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT 
INTO TUES. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -22C AND -26C 
ON TUESDAY...SUPPORT BLW 0F MTNS TO SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS 
VALLEYS...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SOME GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS 
ALOFT...BUT REALIZE MIXING WL HELP WARM THE BL...ESPECIALLY ON 
SOUTHWEST FLW.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND 
DRY WX. TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MTNS TO TEENS WARMER VALLEYS. BRISK SOUTHWEST 
TO WEST WINDS WL CONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN TRRN ALIGNED 
VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL 
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE 
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE 
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES 
AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5 
ABOVE AND 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MILDEST READINGS 
WILL BE IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE DEVELOPMENT OF 
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. COLD SPOTS WILL BE THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE 
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 
WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 
TO MID 20S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. CHANCES 
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE 
APPROACHES...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS IT DEPARTS TO THE 
EAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH 
PERIODS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR 
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS 25 TO 30 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE PROVIDES FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...BUT THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. GFS MAINTAINS ZONAL FLOW AND SHOWS LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVE WHICH TRACKS OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP INTO SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLES PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AROUND 30. BOTH MODELS INDICATE CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AT BTV...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO
25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOSE TO 30 KTS AT BTV/MSS/SLK BY 12Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY 14-18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE
W-SW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BECOME GUSTY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
INTERVALS OF IFR SNOWFALL AT SLK MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT 
WITH W-SW WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. A DECAYING SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO MTN LOCATIONS...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/SLW

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