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Expires:201402052100;;477105
FPUS51 KBTV 051123
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
623 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014

VTZ006-052100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
623 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
.TODAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR
100 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SNOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND
2 BELOW. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 18. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 6 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 19. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND
5 ABOVE. HIGHS AROUND 20. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. HIGHS 15 TO 20. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND ZERO. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 15 TO 20. 
$$

Expires:201402051200;;477562
ASUS41 KBTV 051130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED FEB 05 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-051200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT SNOW  19  15  84 N3        30.19F VSB 3/4          
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  16  14  92 N3        30.18F VSB 3/4          
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  18  14  86 CALM      30.19S VSB 3/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     15  13  91 MISG      30.18F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   SNOW      16  13  86 CALM      30.17R VSB 1/2          
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT SNOW  19  19  99 W3        30.16F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    19  19 100 CALM      30.13F                  
SPRINGFIELD    SNOW      22  19  89 CALM      30.16F VSB 1/2          
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  21  17  86 CALM      30.20F                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  16  11  82 CALM      30.17F                  
BENNINGTON     SNOW      23  21  92 CALM      30.09F VSB 1/2          
SUTTON*          N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     12 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     12 N/A N/A SE15        N/A  WCI  -4          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     19  18  93 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     19  18  93 N8          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     21  18  86 NW7         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;476867
FXUS61 KBTV 051115
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE NORTHEAST 
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A 
WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST 
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL 
TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES 
ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF DRY CONDITIONS AND 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 100% ENTIRE CWA AND ADJUSTED TEMPS/DWPTS BASED
ON CRNT OBS. CRNT SHOWS LIGHT SNOW ACRS OUR FA WITH BANDS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT WITH VIS BLW 1/2SM ATTM.
EXPECT THESE BANDS TO MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ZNS THRU
MIDDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL MODERATE
BANDS OF SNOW WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN. THESE WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
INTO THE EVENING HRS. OVERALL...FCST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
GOOD...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODEL DATA. SNOW
RATIOS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE ARE RUNNING NEAR 10 TO
1 HERE AT THE AIRPORT AS OF 5 AM WITH 0.8" OF SNOW TO 0.08" OF
WATER. THE COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACRS THE NORTHERN CPV IS
RESULTING IN FINER FLAKES...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE THRU THE DAY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF STORM
IMPACTING OUR FA THRU THIS EVENING. ALL CRNT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES NORTH...4 TO 8 INCHES
CENTRAL...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN VT ZNS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE 
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH POTENT 25H JET COUPLET ENHANCING STRONG 
LIFT. ALSO...NOTED IS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT...WHICH 
SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...HAVE NOTICED AN 
ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION 
ZN JUST NORTH OF THE CLOSED 5/7H CIRCULATION. EXPECTING PRECIP TO 
COME IN TWO WAVES TODAY...WITH 1ST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA 
LIFT THIS MORNING AND 2ND WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ENHANCED 
RH/LIFT FROM S/W ENERGY/TROF. LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SHOW BEST LIFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 85H JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS 
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH BEST 850 TO 700MB FGEN 
BAND. THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND LATEST PROGGED COMPOSITE 
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG MESO SCALE BAND OF 
PRECIP. THIS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN CWA BTWN 09Z-15Z 
THIS MORNING...AND MAY CAUSE A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN 
ANTICIPATED QPF/SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE...MUCH WEAKER LIFT AND DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE WL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL 
BORDER...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF VALUES THRU THIS MORNING. 
HOWEVER...THIS AFTN BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W 
ENERGY AND MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL MOVE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN 
CWA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED. RAP 13 SHOWS 
BEST 7H FGEN ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH/LIFT...JUST NORTH OF THE 5H/7H CIRCULATION. 
THIS WL CAUSE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE 
THIS AFTN BTWN 18Z-00Z...WITH HEAVIEST AXIS ACRS CENTRAL VT. GIVEN 
TIMING OF TWO FEATURES...EXPECTING BOTH A DIFFICULT MORNING AND 
EVENING COMMUTE. THIS PRECIP WL QUICKLY WEAKEN BTWN 00Z-03Z FROM 
WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...WITH CLRING SKIES EXPECTED BY 06Z AS SFC 
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS WL RESULT 
IN STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 0.50 
TO 0.75" CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE 
FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES SLV TO 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO CENTRAL 
VT...INCLUDING THE BTV AREA TO 6 TO 12 INCHES SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY 
NY INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW WL 
QUICKLY DECREASE AFT 03Z TONIGHT...WITH CLRING SKIES DEVELOPING
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CLRING COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW PACK WL
RESULT IN TEMPS BLW 0F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO +10F WARMER VALLEYS.
WL TREND TWD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT FOR THURS
INTO FRIDAY. LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT WITH A
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACRS OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE MTNS OF NNY INTO NORTHERN VT AFT 06Z FRIDAY. QPF WL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINIMAL SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES ON THURS...BUT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND THURS
NIGHT WL TREND TWD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY THE
COMBINATION OF SW UPSLOPE FLW...SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTERACTION...AND WEAK SFC TROF WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FROM
THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -16C AND -18C SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BEGIN WITH DRY QUIET WEATHER AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING
EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THIS FEATURE BRINGS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ECMWF HANDLES THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIFFERENTLY...DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THEN THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
THIS IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
GFS...WHICH IS WHAT WPC DID ALSO. ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BRINGING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 10/11Z AT ALL TAF SITES...THEN SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE DOWN TO
LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR/IFR SHOULD START AROUND 15/16Z TODAY.
EXPECTING VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 1SM AFTER 15Z WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 FT TO 2500 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT SOUTHEAST
AT RUTLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 01/02Z AT ALL
SITES...SHOULD BE MVFR AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR AT TIMES AT
SLK. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH
CHANCE SNOW AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ029>031-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ026>028-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

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