Expires:201406212000;;748929 FPUS51 KBTV 211026 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 626 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014 VTZ006-212000- LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE 626 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014 .TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 80. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. .THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. $$ Expires:201406211100;;749099 ASUS41 KBTV 211030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-211100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON PTSUNNY 47 44 90 CALM 29.99S MONTPELIER FOG 42 42 100 CALM 30.06S VSB 1/4 MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 42 41 96 CALM 30.01S FOG ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 43 41 93 MISG 29.98S LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 42 40 91 CALM 30.00S MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 47 47 100 CALM 29.99R RUTLAND* PTSUNNY 46 43 87 SE5 30.00F SPRINGFIELD MOSUNNY 43 42 97 CALM 30.01R HIGHGATE* FAIR 51 48 90 CALM 29.98S NEWPORT* FAIR 42 41 95 CALM 29.99S BENNINGTON SUNNY 44 42 93 CALM 30.03R SUTTON* N/A 43 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 41 N/A N/A NW9 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 55 50 82 SE7 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 54 50 87 SE7 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 52 48 87 SE5 N/A $$ Expires:No;;749259 FXUS61 KBTV 211046 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 646 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 645 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST HOLDING UP WELL WITH THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BLEND WITH TRENDS. EARLY-MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY...AREA WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS SHOW AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IN CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPED WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS MIXING GETS GOING UNDER THE HIGHEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR. THIN CIRRUS HAS SPILLED INTO VERMONT...BUT THE BULK OF ANY SCT CLOUDINESS TODAY WILL RESULT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MONTREAL DEVELOPING FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 5-6 KFT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER THE STRONG INSOLATION...AND IT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A GREAT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR LATE JUNE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FOLLOWS... IT'S ESSENTIALLY A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THAT YESTERDAY: DRY WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER NORTH- CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP DRIVE AN INCREASE IN FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH OVERALL COVERAGE BEING ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. STILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY...AND ALTHOUGH BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN REVEAL WELL MIXED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE MIXED LAYER FLOW IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT GUSTS. THERMAL PROFILES ARE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER BUT OPTED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN MOS FOR TODAY'S HIGHS WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID 70S. ALL IN ALL...ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 342 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH SIMILAR SENSIBLE WX EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS BURNING OFF BY EVENING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING AS WELL. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE READILY MET OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH EVENING. SO I'VE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEY FOG LOCATIONS EACH EVENING. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO +8 TO +10C BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S (HIGHEST IN THE VALLEYS AND COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS). UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN THEN TURNS MORE ZONAL MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER. THE NORTH COUNTRY IS UNDER MODEST GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES FOR MONDAY...THOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE NAM AND SREF MEAN SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME VERY MODEST INSTABILITY (CAPES UNDER 200 J/KG)...BUT I'M LEANING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST HOWEVER GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND NIL SFC CONVERGENCE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT INTO THE 70S TO LOW/MID 80S GIVEN 850 TEMPS OF +12 TO +14C AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 359 AM EDT SATURDAY...INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH AN ISOLD THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RETURN TO DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DETAILS FOLLOW. DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +15 TO +16C...HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NWRN VT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND W-SW 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW AND THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS PERIOD OF 50-70 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT ASSUMING SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S. MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS (PW VALUES REACH 1.8-1.9" AT 00Z THURSDAY PER 00Z GFS SOLUTION). SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH DECREASING POPS AND TSTM CHANCES DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS 55-60F DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES THU-FRI SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS (UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS). && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH SCT050 DURING THE 14-22Z PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...AND GENERALLY NNW 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. WINDS LOCALLY NE 5-10 KT AT PBG. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... CONTINUED VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html