 |
 |
Expires:201408312000;;021256 FPUS51 KBTV 310740 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 339 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 VTZ006-312000- LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE 339 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .TODAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. .LABOR DAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. .THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. .FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. $$ Expires:201408311100;;028024 ASUS41 KBTV 311030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-311100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 70 63 78 S16G22 29.97R MONTPELIER PTSUNNY 66 62 87 VRB3 30.06R MORRISVILLE LGT RAIN 66 64 93 CALM 30.02S FOG ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 64 60 87 MISG 30.00S MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 71 64 78 S7 30.03R RUTLAND* CLOUDY 68 63 83 SE3 30.04S SPRINGFIELD PTSUNNY 59 58 96 CALM 30.06F HIGHGATE* PTSUNNY 66 64 93 S8 29.94F NEWPORT* RAIN 62 61 95 SE5 30.02S BENNINGTON PTSUNNY 62 60 93 CALM 30.07F GALLUP MILLS* N/A 0 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 59 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A W17G31 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 70 64 83 SE15 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 70 64 83 SW24 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 70 63 78 SE16 N/A $$ Expires:No;;021563 FXUS61 KBTV 310748 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 348 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CONSISTENT MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS...WILL LIKELY SEE ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IMPACT NRN NY ACROSS NRN VT THRU MID-MORNING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION. WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL +16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT. GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WILL PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE... AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW MARINE...WFO BTV - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html