 |
 |
Expires:201409272000;;247214 FPUS51 KBTV 270822 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 421 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 VTZ006-272000- LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE 421 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .TODAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .TONIGHT...CLEAR. PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .SUNDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. $$ Expires:201409271100;;251925 ASUS41 KBTV 271030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-271100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON SUNNY 52 50 93 CALM 30.22R MONTPELIER FOG 44 44 100 CALM 30.26S VSB 1/4 MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 45 44 97 CALM 30.25S FOG ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 49 49 100 MISG 30.21S MIDDLEBURY* FOG 49 49 100 CALM 30.23R VSB 1/2 RUTLAND* SUNNY 48 46 93 SE5 30.24R SPRINGFIELD FOG 47 47 100 CALM 30.22S VSB<1/4 HIGHGATE* FAIR 50 49 98 CALM 30.21S NEWPORT* FAIR N/A N/A N/A CALM 30.22S HAZE BENNINGTON FOG 44 44 100 CALM 30.24S VSB 1/2 GALLUP MILLS* N/A 45 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 48 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 54 N/A N/A NW12 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 61 55 82 SE5 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 59 59 100 S13 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 54 54 100 SE7 N/A $$ Expires:No;;247008 FXUS61 KBTV 270816 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 416 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH READINGS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TIE OR SET NEW RECORD HIGHS. DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDES US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 416 AM EDT SATURDAY...MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE FOG SHOULD COMPLETELY BURN OFF BY MID- MORNING. WE ARE THEN LEFT WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND RECORD LEVELS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC RECORDS. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 416 AM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS LOOK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND BURN OFF AROUND MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY. WITH THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SOME RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL WANT TO DROP OUT OF CANADA LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE STILL NOTED IN THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE...WITH PLACEMENT OF ULVL RIDGE AND HOW FAR NORTH CLOSED 5H EASTERN CONUS TROF GETS. FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE I HAVE FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A TREND TWD ENSEMBLE AND PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FCSTS. THIS WOULD CONT TO SUPPORT A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK BACK DOOR FRNT IMPACTING OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS SHOW A NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND WEAK 5H PVA...MAINLY IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN REGIONS. GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WL JUST MENTION SCHC FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND LLVL CAA WL HELP DROP TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY BY TUES. FOR MID WEEK...LATEST 00Z ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH WEAK SFC LOW PRES LOCATED SOUTH OF NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CWA...WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY ON WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH NO IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA...AS STRONG 1032MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...HGHTS BUILD ALOFT WITH DEVELOPING RIDGE AND DEEP DRY LAYER IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LARGE SWINGS IN DAILY TEMPS. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATING...WL TREND TWD A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION FOR WEDS THRU FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN 6-8C ON WEDS...BUT WARM BACK BTWN 10-12C BY FRIDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S MTNS TO L70S WARMER VALLEYS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M30S SLK/NEK TO M/U 40S CPV/SLV. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES HIGH TEMPS WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES...WITH LOWS INCREASED BY THE SAME AMOUNT DO TO CLOUDS/WINDS AND PRECIP. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND SYSTEM PARALLELING MID/UPPER LVL FLW ALOFT...THINKING RAIN SHOWERS WL BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HAVE NOTED SEVERAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FIRST TEMPS ARE WARMER AND DWPTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AND LLVL WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BTWN 200 AND 400 FEET AGL...WHICH ARE MIXING TO THE SFC AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THESE FACTORS WL RESULT IN LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG THIS MORNING...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV FROM 06Z THRU 12Z. ELSEWHERE...VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE..BUT HAVE USED TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT BRIEF IFR AT RUTLAND BTWN 09-11Z THIS MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT PBG/MSS/BTV. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT BTV NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL DRAINAGE PUSHING WINOOSKI VALLEY RIVER FOG ONTO THE EASTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE RUNWAY. OTHERWISE...FOG/BR WL LIFT AT ALL SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KNTS TODAY. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR PREVAILING THRU WEDS...WITH EXCEPTION OF FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK WITH LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY EACH MORNING BTWN 06-12Z...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNINGS. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASE MOISTURE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY....ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS DECK AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...MAY LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 308 PM EDT FRIDAY... UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH OR BREAK DAILY RECORD HIGHS. LISTED BELOW ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY 9/27 AND SUNDAY 9/28: IDSAT RECORDSUN RECORD BTV 83 (1927) 82 (1946) MSS 82 (2003) 85 (1959) MPV 80 (2007) 80 (1959) SJBV1 84 (1933)83 (1908) MMNV1 69 (2011) 72 (1959) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER CLIMATE...BTV - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html