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Expires:201409272000;;247214
FPUS51 KBTV 270822
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VTZ006-272000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
421 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.TODAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SUNDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
$$

Expires:201409271100;;251925
ASUS41 KBTV 271030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-271100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     SUNNY     52  50  93 CALM      30.22R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       44  44 100 CALM      30.26S VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    45  44  97 CALM      30.25S FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     49  49 100 MISG      30.21S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FOG       49  49 100 CALM      30.23R VSB 1/2          
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     48  46  93 SE5       30.24R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       47  47 100 CALM      30.22S VSB<1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      50  49  98 CALM      30.21S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR     N/A N/A N/A CALM      30.22S HAZE             
BENNINGTON     FOG       44  44 100 CALM      30.24S VSB 1/2          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A NW12        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  55  82 SE5         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     59  59 100 S13         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  54 100 SE7         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;247008
FXUS61 KBTV 270816
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH READINGS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TIE
OR SET NEW RECORD HIGHS. DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND
PROVIDES US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT SATURDAY...MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THE FOG SHOULD COMPLETELY BURN OFF BY MID-
MORNING. WE ARE THEN LEFT WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND RECORD
LEVELS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC RECORDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS LOOK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND BURN OFF AROUND MID-MORNING ON
SUNDAY. WITH THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
AREA...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S. ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND SOME RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL WANT TO DROP OUT OF CANADA
LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE STILL
NOTED IN THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE...WITH PLACEMENT OF ULVL RIDGE
AND HOW FAR NORTH CLOSED 5H EASTERN CONUS TROF GETS. FOR THIS
FCST PACKAGE I HAVE FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
A TREND TWD ENSEMBLE AND PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FCSTS. THIS WOULD CONT
TO SUPPORT A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH WEAK BACK DOOR FRNT IMPACTING OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND WEAK 5H PVA...MAINLY
IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN REGIONS. GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...WL
JUST MENTION SCHC FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND LLVL CAA WL HELP DROP TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY BY TUES. FOR MID WEEK...LATEST 00Z ECMWF
CONTS TO SHOW CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH WEAK SFC LOW PRES LOCATED SOUTH OF NYC BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR CWA...WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY ON WEDS
NIGHT INTO THURS. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE
DATA SHOWS SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH NO IMPACTS ACRS OUR
CWA...AS STRONG 1032MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...HGHTS BUILD ALOFT WITH DEVELOPING RIDGE AND DEEP DRY
LAYER IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND
CLEAR SKIES WITH LARGE SWINGS IN DAILY TEMPS. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS
FOR SYSTEMS TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATING...WL
TREND TWD A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION FOR WEDS THRU
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN 6-8C ON
WEDS...BUT WARM BACK BTWN 10-12C BY FRIDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 60S MTNS TO L70S WARMER VALLEYS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
M30S SLK/NEK TO M/U 40S CPV/SLV. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES
HIGH TEMPS WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES...WITH LOWS INCREASED BY THE SAME AMOUNT DO TO
CLOUDS/WINDS AND PRECIP. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTING
OUR CWA. GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND SYSTEM PARALLELING
MID/UPPER LVL FLW ALOFT...THINKING RAIN SHOWERS WL BE DELAYED
UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WL BE AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
OVERHEAD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HAVE NOTED
SEVERAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FIRST TEMPS ARE
WARMER AND DWPTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AND LLVL WINDS ARE 10 TO 15
KNOTS BTWN 200 AND 400 FEET AGL...WHICH ARE MIXING TO THE SFC AT A
FEW LOCATIONS. THESE FACTORS WL RESULT IN LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG THIS MORNING...BUT VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AT SLK/MPV FROM 06Z THRU 12Z. ELSEWHERE...VERY DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE..BUT HAVE USED TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT BRIEF IFR AT
RUTLAND BTWN 09-11Z THIS MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
PBG/MSS/BTV. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS AT BTV NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL
DRAINAGE PUSHING WINOOSKI VALLEY RIVER FOG ONTO THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE RUNWAY. OTHERWISE...FOG/BR WL LIFT
AT ALL SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING WITH CLR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KNTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR PREVAILING THRU WEDS...WITH EXCEPTION OF FOG/BR AT
MPV/SLK WITH LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY EACH MORNING BTWN
06-12Z...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNINGS. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASE MOISTURE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY....ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRNT WL PRODUCE A MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS DECK AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...MAY
LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 308 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND
A FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH OR BREAK DAILY RECORD HIGHS. LISTED
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY 9/27 AND SUNDAY 9/28:
IDSAT RECORDSUN RECORD
BTV 83 (1927) 82 (1946)
MSS 82 (2003) 85 (1959)
MPV 80 (2007) 80 (1959)
SJBV1 84 (1933)83 (1908)
MMNV1 69 (2011) 72 (1959)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...BTV

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