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Expires:201412092100;;542284
FPUS51 KBTV 091125
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014

VTZ006-092100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
622 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...
.TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW OR RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SNOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SNOW OR SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...SLEET OR SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SLEET OR RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO
3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR SLEET. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. 
$$

Expires:201412091200;;542608
ASUS41 KBTV 091130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE DEC 09 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-091200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    30  23  75 S7        30.34F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    22  21  96 CALM      30.37F FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     19  14  81 MISG      30.38F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    19  15  82 N5        30.35F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    PTSUNNY   29  27  92 CALM      30.31F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    30  27  86 SE9       30.28F                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT SNOW  24  23  96 CALM      30.35F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      30  24  77 CALM      30.33F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    24  21  87 S7        30.36F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    34  27  75 N5        30.24F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     23 N/A N/A SE18        N/A  WCI   9          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  27  80 E8          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     34  30  86 S17         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  27  80 SE5         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;542499
FXUS61 KBTV 091131
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. 
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TAPERS OFF BY LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND 
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH CURRENT
T/TD TRENDS AS OF 600 AM. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SLV TODAY BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION. REST OF FORECAST
LARGELY UNCHANGED AND WE'RE MOVING INTO A WAIT AND SEE MODE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOVLES. YOU CAN SLICE
THE CAKE A HUNDRED DIFFERENT WAYS AND COME UP WITH A HUNDRED
DIFFERENT ANSWERS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT OUR REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OFF THE VIRGINA CAPES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND OCCNL
LIGHTNING OFFHSORE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THIS
MORNING AS SYSTEM BECOMES INTERLOCKED WITH CLOSING H5 CENTER
DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY ON BOARD SHOWING OCCLUSION OCCURRING OVER LONG ISLAND OR
JUST OFFSHORE IN THE NY BIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AS STRONG SURGE
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND HEAVIEST PCPN SHOULD PULL NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
OUR AREA AS WELL TO FOSTER A DECENT EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL EVENT.
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER AS PRIME SNOW GROWTH ZONE
QUITE HIGH (ABOVE H7) AND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL FOSTER CUSTOMARY
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS/DEGRADATIONS IN PCPN AMTS. DIAGNOSTICS
ALSO MAINTAIN THE IDEA THAT WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY INROADS INTO MUCH OF VERMONT BY THIS
EVENING...SUCH THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE PCPN WILL MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO PL/FZRA AND OR PLAIN RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS AS BEST
WAA/FGEN WEAKEN/LIFT NORTH OVER TIME. USED GFS THERMAL PROFILES
ALONG WITH A LARGELY BLENDED QPF FIELD INCORPORATING A MIX OF HI-
RES/GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. FURTHER WEST BLENDED LOW TO MID LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST OUR NRN NY COUNTIES REMAIN
LARGELY COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY ALL SNOW. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TODAY/TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TRENDS NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...BY WEDNESDAY SFC OCCLUSSION SHOULD BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR LONG ISLAND WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING
UNDER WARM AND MOIST THERMAL ADVECTION. PCPN CHARACTER SHOULD
INITIALLY BE LIGHTER DUE TO WEAKER DYNAMICAL LIFT AND AT LEAST
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT. INDEED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN ONLY VERY LIGHT
PCPN/DZ/FZDZ WILL BE FALLING AS PRIME SNOW GROWTH ZONE TRENDS
UNSATURATED. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING A SECONDARY
AND RATHER POTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL PIVOT WNW BACK INTO
CENTRAL/NRN NEW ENGLAND/NRN NY BY LATER IN THE DAY/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL MODERATE PCPN AMTS POSSIBLE. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES
EXCEPTIONALLY TRICKY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST WHERE
LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PCPN SEEMS QUITE HIGH. FURTHER WEST MAINLY
SNOW AND GIVEN THIS IDEA WE'VE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE SLV TO A WINTER WX ADVSY TO COVER THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS PANS OUT...SEVERAL ADDITIONALL INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SECONDARY BURST...BUT WHO GETS THE
MOST IS STILL IN QUESTION. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE BIG WINNERS FROM
THE ENTIRE EVENT SHOULD BE THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE PERSISTENT
ENE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLDER THERMAL PROGS SHOULD KEEP THINGS ALL
SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT I WOULDN'T BE ALL SUPRISED THAT SOME
FAVORED EASTERN SLOPES IN THE HIGH PEAKS MAY NEED A YARDSTICK TO
MEASURE THE NEW SNOW AMOUNTS. TIME WILL TELL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
QUITE UNIFORM...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY STACKED UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE 
REGION. WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES SHOULD HAVE SHUT DOWN BY 
THIS POINT SO GENERALLY LOOKING AT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN 
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES IN 
WARMEST VALLEY LOCALES DURING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT 
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
TRENDS FOR THE LONG TERM. CONTINUED THE THINKING OF A DRIER
WEEKEND WITH SNOW CHANCES GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND WHATS LEFT OF THE STACKED COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED WITH THE SYSTEM.
WITH WINDS ALOFT TURNING NORTH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES JUST SLIGHT TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
TO SCATTERED SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. THE FORCEING
MECHANISM THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF
THE REGION WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD
CENTRAL CONUS AND BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ARE SHAPING UP TO BE NEAR NORMAL
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH MARGINAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TAF SITES WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MARINE
LAYER MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT REDUCING CEILINGS TO
LOW MVFR HEIGHTS. THE MVFR STRATUS HAS ALREADY MOVED IN AT MPV AND
RUT AND HAS REDUCED CEILINGS TO 1000-1500 FEET. EXPECT THAT
STRATUS LAYER TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH BUT NOT REACH KMSS OR KSLK
UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE TURNING AROUND TO NORTH 7-12 KTS BY
19-20Z. CONCERNING THE PRECIP... I EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO
BEGIN TO IMPACT KRUT BY 12-14Z WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND
LATER BETWEEN 15-17Z IN THE NORTHERN VT AND NY SITES. EXPECT WITH
THE SNOWFALL CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR VISIBILITIES WITH
LOWERED CEILINGS AS WELL IN THE RANGE OF 800-1000 FEET. KRUT WILL
LIKELY WARM ENOUGH TOMORROW TO BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX BEGINNING
AROUND 17-19Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW BY 23Z.
OVERALL...WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION...EXTENDING THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VARYING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR
TO VLIFR EXPECTED IFR IN SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG...SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW PASSING TO OUR EAST.
EASTERLY LLWS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT TO AVIATION GROUND OPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO
ACCUMULATION SNOW/SLEET AND POSSIBLE ICING. 
00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING...BUT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO REMAIN.
00Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ028>031-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS/DEAL

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